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Ariel (@Prolotario1): The Odds of a Rate Change Remain High

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Ariel
@Prolotario1

Time Is Running Out

No liquidity.
No dollar.
No revenue.
No deposits.
No withdrawals.
No market volume.

What is the next best thing to do if you plan on making it out of this financial constraint on your economy before more sanctions and more economic turmoil ensues? You change the exchange rate. Which I presume they only have days to do. Turkey is waiting on them to make decisions prior to Monday that will determine the fate of everything else contingent upon this oil export.

You can not crash your way into a new exchange rate like some unexpected hard drop in value then all of sudden this miraculous exchange rate comes in and saves the day. A “crash” could occur if confidence in the dinar erodes due to external shocks (e.g., sanctions, oil price drops) or internal mismanagement, but it’s not a prerequisite for a rate change.

Something that is looming overhead due to their procrastination and reluctance because many will be going to prison after this. They know the c********n will come to an end. This is why they are dragging their feet and being forced into compliance.

The CBI could act preemptively to prevent such a crash by adjusting the rate based on current economic data and projections. This is why it is smart of them to do this now to avoid this. You have to know in order for you to have proper confidence in somebody else notion. You all keep riding the fence and two horses at the same time.

A crash would be destabilizing and counterproductive to Iraq’s current goals of stabilizing salaries, managing oil revenue, and avoiding public unrest. Instead, the CBI is more likely to adjust the rate proactively potentially this week or before February ends.

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Based on economic necessity, oil export resumption, and fiscal pressures, as outlined in posts by Majeed and other developments we’ve discussed.

The odds of a rate change remain high (70-80% this week, 80-90% before month-end) without requiring a dinar crash. If anything, the CBI would aim to prevent such a crash by acting decisively now. This is why the media in Iraq is now talking about introducing new currency and urging a rate change. Why? Because they want to avoid the very thing that @snwse21 claim needs to happen prior to the new exchange rate.

Source(s):
https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/1892285199461077449
https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/1892338564073213965

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