Ariel
@Prolotario1
Are We Starting Wednesday Off With A Bang?
Look, I’ve been following Iraq’s oil drama for a while, and it boils down to this: without a fresh exchange rate for the dinar, restarting those KRG exports just won’t stick. Here’s why, in plain terms it’s all about keeping the money machine running smooth without it breaking down.
Iraq’s got this massive $153 billion budget for 2025, but it’s locked until KRG oil brings in its share about 10-15% of total exports. A new rate makes revenue forecasts reliable, so they can finally release funds without guessing games. What makes sense to you?
Another thing to consider. Those exports will pour in dollars, but a stronger dinar rate lets the central bank convert and store them properly. Right now, reserves are around $100 billion, but volatility could eat that up fast without a solid rate to back it.
The street rate’s at 1,494 to the dollar while official’s 1,300 that’s a trust k****r. A reval lines them up, so buyers aren’t scared off and exports can actually flow without shady side deals.
These big players won’t sign off on more loans or trade perks without currency tweaks. No rate change means endless red tape, stalling the whole export restart. So why go through the trouble of meeting these requirements if they were going to use the current rate?
Companies like DNO are itching to pump more cash up to $27 billion in deals but they need a stable dinar to feel safe. A new rate screams “we’re serious,” pulling them in. So who are you betting on this this scenario people? Be real with yourselves.
Over 4.7 million folks are waiting on checks, plus back pay. Oil money needs a steady rate to stretch without inflation wiping it out mid-month.
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Baghdad and Erbil fight over shares; a fixed rate settles disputes quick, so 230,000 barrels a day don’t get stuck in court forever. How long have we been waiting for them to resolve this specific issue? Now look where we are.
Buyers want a dinar they can swap anywhere on Forex. Reval gets it listed, turning SOMO’s “global exports” promise into reality, not just talk.
With deficits at 5% of GDP, a stronger rate keeps import prices down and oil bucks from leaking away, giving breathing room for growth.
A stable currency ups Iraq’s game in talks like WTO entry, locking in pipeline security and making sure exports aren’t just a short-term win. What else is there to say?
So we wait to see what Baghdad will do from this point. Because with this being done we knowledge for a fact that stability in oil prices will bring that same balance in the exchange rate once they decide to release it. They will have a solid foundation to work with which will help with equal distribution of the budget. So I am fine with whatever they decide to do from this point going forward. The rate actually has more life in it now then it ever has since we invested. So who cares if they release it weeks from now? That still going to be money that you didn’t have to work for. And you will be set the rest of your life.
Source(s):
https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/1970805600851247505
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