In this in-depth interview on the What the Finance podcast, David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisor, shares his bullish outlook on the U.S. equity markets and precious metals despite widespread skepticism. Hunter forecasts an extraordinary, possibly unprecedented rally marking the final phase of a 43-year secular bull market, with his S&P 500 target raised to 9,500—more than 40% above current levels. He anticipates a strong year-end rally extending into early next year, followed by a sharp bear market downturn potentially exceeding an 80% decline. Hunter stresses that while buy-and-hold strategies have worked well in past decades, this cycle’s unique characteristics demand active risk management and portfolio repositioning.
Hunter also highlights silver and gold as prime beneficiaries of the ongoing cycle, expecting significant upside in both metals and their associated mining stocks. He projects silver could reach $100 per ounce and gold $5,000 per ounce within months, driven by growing institutional interest and fundamental strength. While technology, semiconductors, financials, and industrials should continue to lead the equity market rally, energy and utilities are likely to underperform.
On macroeconomic conditions, Hunter foresees a temporary soft landing with inflation easing and interest rates retreating, but warns of a global bust driven by excessive leverage and economic imbalances. He anticipates the U.S. dollar weakening significantly over the next six months, with the euro, pound, and other currencies strengthening. Despite potential fiscal stimulus and tariff relief extending the cycle marginally, Hunter believes these measures will not prevent the eventual major downturn. His contrarian call centers on the bond market, where he expects yields to decline toward zero by the end of the bear market, making Treasuries a rare safe haven.
Hunter concludes by cautioning investors against succumbing to late-cycle euphoria, emphasizing the importance of recognizing the end of a historic bull market and preparing for a severe bear market phase, potentially the worst since 1929. He encourages maintaining awareness of market psychology and adapting investment strategies accordingly.
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