GP Q
@argosaki
Q : tells us it start in the east.
People are wondering why the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike matters.
So, let me break this down as it, the BoJ rate hike,
actually relates directly to Iraq and the RV.
BoJ → FX → Iraq
is essentially sequencing, not coincidence:
- BoJ hikes rate
• Carry trades unwind
• FX volatility rises globally - Major FX pairs reprice
• Dollar strength becomes unstable, no longer dominant
• Central banks everywhere must reassess pegs and managed rates - Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) cannot sit on a “temporary” policy rate (1310)
• Especially one explicitly labeled “in transition” by the CBI
• Especially heading into a new government + HCL + budget reset
This move :
raises the cost of delay
and
adds pressure to the timing.
Regardless the CBI has :
already set an expiration for the 1310 rate on 12/31
and
Parliament is set to resume on 12/29
and
finalise the HCL before the start of January 2026.
That doesn’t mean the CBI has to wait until then to pull the trigger.
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This weekend or early next week still look good for 4B.
Source(s):
https://x.com/argosaki/status/2002128119969583340
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