As we approach 2026, Steven Feldman, CEO of Wealthion and a seasoned macroeconomist, offers a refreshingly candid perspective on the year ahead. In a comprehensive outlook that blends economic insight with geopolitical savvy, Feldman paints a picture of a world where “math and gravity” will reassert themselves, challenging the optimistic narratives that have dominated market discourse. In this blog post, we’ll delve into Feldman’s key predictions and investment strategies for navigating the complexities of 2026.
Feldman identifies war as the most significant risk facing the global economy in 2026, citing rising tensions in Venezuela, U*****e, China, and Taiwan. The multipolar power struggle unfolding across these hotspots is reshaping global alliances and economic structures, necessitating a recalibration of expectations for investors and policymakers alike. As Feldman notes, the world is effectively on a war footing, with far-reaching implications for economic stability and market volatility.
On the economic front, Feldman highlights the looming challenges in the U.S. Treasury market, where a $38 trillion national debt and $9 trillion in rolling maturities in 2026 will expose vulnerabilities, particularly if the Federal Reserve’s credibility is compromised or becomes politicized. The phenomenon of “fiscal dominance” – where fiscal policy supplants monetary policy as the primary driver of economic outcomes – will continue to shape the economic landscape. This dynamic, coupled with gridlock around inflation, deficits, and affordability, creates a precarious environment that may lead to higher interest rates, inflation pressures, and economic stress.
While Feldman stops short of predicting an outright crash, he cautions that investors must be prepared for a reckoning that will challenge prevailing market narratives. To navigate this uncertain terrain, he advocates for diversification beyond traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolios, highlighting opportunities in real assets such as precious metals and industrial metals, which have performed well and remain underappreciated by the broader market.
Feldman is cautiously optimistic about the productivity potential of AI, but skeptical about its societal impact, warning of potential job displacements and economic dislocations. He emphasizes that innovation will remain a key driver of stock market returns, but notes that valuations, particularly in tech, are stretched, and not all AI investments will succeed.
Feldman’s investment philosophy for the coming year centers on respecting the immutable forces of “math and gravity,” maintaining emotional fortitude, and adopting a barbell strategy that balances innovation-driven equities with real assets and cash. He underscores the importance of being prepared for volatility, geopolitical disruptions, and structural economic shifts.
Feldman’s vision extends beyond the realm of investment strategy, as he seeks to foster authentic, transparent conversations about values, stewardship, and the human side of investing. To this end, he is launching a new show called “Unhedged,” which promises to explore these themes in depth.
In conclusion, Feldman’s 2026 outlook offers a sobering yet pragmatic perspective on the challenges and opportunities ahead. As investors and policymakers navigate the complexities of a rapidly changing world, his insights serve as a timely reminder of the importance of adaptability, diversification, and a deep understanding of the underlying economic and geopolitical trends shaping our world. For further insights and information, be sure to watch the full video from Wealthion.
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