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More Tues. PM Seeds of Wisdom News Update(s) 2-24-26

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Seeds of Wisdom

Geopolitics Overtakes Economics: The New Rules of Global Finance

From Tariffs to Central Banks, Power Now Trumps Policy Models

Overview

This week’s financial landscape reveals a decisive shift: economic frameworks are being subordinated to geopolitical strategy.

From U.S. tariff maneuvers to Japan’s currency tolerance and Israel’s rate decisions, policymakers are increasingly prioritizing security threats, trade leverage, and strategic positioning over traditional economic indicators.

According to reporting compiled by Reuters, governments and central banks are recalibrating decisions around power, deterrence, and alliance management, not inflation models or textbook trade theory.

The pattern is clear: Money is now an instrument of statecraft.

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Key Developments

1. Tariffs Reframed as Crisis Management

U.S. President Donald Trump replaced struck-down IEEPA tariffs with new 15% duties under Section 122, citing a balance-of-payments crisis tied to a $1.2 trillion trade deficit.

Former IMF official Gita Gopinath rejected the claim, noting the U.S. retains stable borrowing costs and market access — key indicators that no classical balance-of-payments crisis exists.

Strategic Impact:
Legal statutes are being repurposed to sustain tariff regimes. When one authority fails, another is invoked. Trade law is becoming flexible terrain in geopolitical contests.

2. Japan’s Yen Weakness Signals Strategic Tolerance

The yen weakened to around 155 per dollar, even amid speculation of intervention. Tokyo appears more willing to tolerate depreciation, balancing export competitiveness with fiscal flexibility.

Meanwhile, Japan is seeking assurances that new tariffs won’t “stack” on top of previous trade agreements tied to $550 billion in pledged U.S.-bound investment.

Strategic Impact:
Japan’s caution reflects a shift from economic optimization to risk containment diplomacy. Stability with Washington outweighs currency orthodoxy.

3. Israel Holds Rates Despite Easing Inflation

The Bank of Israel kept interest rates at 4%, even as inflation eased to 1.8%, within its 1–3% target range.

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The reason: rising geopolitical uncertainty tied to Iran tensions.

Strategic Impact:
Monetary policy is no longer purely data-driven. Security risk is overriding inflation metrics, signaling a structural shift in central banking priorities.

4. Saudi Arabia’s Fiscal Expansion Accelerates

Saudi Arabia’s Q4 deficit widened to $25.28 billion, with full-year deficits exceeding revised projections as Vision 2030 projects accelerate.

Debt climbed sharply to 1.52 trillion riyals, reflecting expansionary policy despite moderate oil revenue growth.

Strategic Impact:
Mega-project diversification requires sustained borrowing. The fiscal gamble hinges on rapid non-oil growth before debt servicing pressures intensify.

5. Strategic Mineral Alliances Bypass Traditional Trade

Brazil and South Korea elevated ties into a strategic partnership targeting:

  • Critical minerals
  • AI development
  • Green industries
  • Renewed trade negotiations

As global tariff uncertainty grows, bilateral agreements are replacing multilateral confidence.

Strategic Impact:
Resource diplomacy is fragmenting supply chains into ideological blocs, accelerating “friendshoring” dynamics.

Why It Matters

We are witnessing a systemic pivot:

  • Trade deficits framed as security threats
  • Currency weakness tolerated for strategic aims
  • Central banks prioritizing geopolitics over inflation
  • Sovereign debt rising to fund diversification races
  • Bilateral mineral deals replacing multilateral trust

Economic policy is becoming an extension of foreign policy.

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This is not just market turbulence — it’s the weaponization of economic policy.

Why It Matters to Foreign Currency Holders

For those watching global financial realignment:

  • Legal uncertainty increases currency volatility
  • Security-driven rate policy distorts traditional forecasting models
  • Supply-chain fragmentation pressures inflation dynamics
  • Strategic trade blocs alter capital allocation flows

Markets may treat these as temporary disruptions. The evidence suggests structural shifts.

Implications for the Global Reset

Pillar 1: Redefinition of Economic Crisis
Invoking “balance-of-payments crises” in stable economies redefines the legal threshold for protectionism worldwide.

Pillar 2: Central Bank Mandate Evolution
Security risk is increasingly embedded into monetary decision-making frameworks.

Pillar 3: Strategic Fragmentation
Bilateral mineral pacts and tariff stacking fears indicate global trade is reorganizing into aligned blocs.

The rules governing globalization are being rewritten in real time.

This is not just tariff maneuvering — it’s the legal reengineering of trade authority.

Seeds of Wisdom Team View

Three fractures are widening:

  • Legal fragility of tariff authority
  • Unsustainable tribute-style trade dynamics
  • Central banks subordinating economics to geopolitics

Markets remain calm.

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Policy foundations are shifting.

When monetary frameworks bend toward security priorities, signaling mechanisms weaken — and volatility follows.

This is not just central bank discretion — it’s geopolitics overriding economic doctrine.

Seeds of Wisdom Team
Newshounds News™ Exclusive


Sources

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Source: Dinar Recaps

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