Does Iraq face a “scenario” of Afghanistan’s collapse after America’s withdrawal?
The American “Foreign Policy” magazine said, “The Iraqis fear that their turn will come after the collapse of Afghanistan and its fall into the hands of the Taliban, following the US military withdrawal from the country, after a 20-year war.”
And the newspaper added, in a report published on its website: “Perhaps no one is more shocked by the disaster in Afghanistan than the Iraqi people, who are very afraid that Iraq will face the same fate.”
“Even before the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan led to the complete collapse of the government and the Taliban’s complete control of matters, many Iraqis were very concerned about what the US withdrawal from Afghanistan would mean for Iraq.”
And she continued: “The questions of the Iraqis focused on: Will the United States end its military presence of 2,500 soldiers in Iraq? And if this happens, will it lead to Iranian militias taking over the country? Or the return of the terrorist organization ISIS? Or maybe a civil war?”
And she added: “The scenes of despair that occurred at Kabul airport last Sunday, raised feelings of tension and anxiety among the Iraqis, and were a reminder of what happened in 2014, when the army and police in Iraq collapsed, after being trained and armed by the United States, and they lost 3 provinces. In battles against the terrorist organization ISIS.”
The United States withdrew from Iraq in 2011, but was forced to return again to confront ISIS, which killed and massacred Iraqis.
Iraqis also fear renewed discussions in Washington and Baghdad about a full US withdrawal from Iraq.
“Foreign Policy” indicated that, as happened in 2011, Iran is pressuring the Iraqi government to ask US forces to leave, and Washington may be more willing to take that step now.
The similarities between Iraq and Afghanistan
“Foreign Policy” saw that “it is very easy to find similarities in the situation between Afghanistan and Iraq.”
“Like Afghanistan, Iraq has a divided government, which prioritizes the politics of patronage over the proper management of competent security forces and other government services,” she said. Most notably, the Iraqi government and the collapsed Afghan government are vying for the title of most corrupt.”
She added: “As in Afghanistan, the Iraqi government and the Iraqi army are not willing to stand up to the militias that threaten the sovereignty and security of Iraq, and attack the Iraqis.. In Afghanistan, it was not a question of ability, but of political will, as Washington complains that the Iraqi government It can lead the country militarily against the terrorist organization ISIS and counter-terror operations, but it does not do that in front of the militias.”
“Like the Taliban, these militias, despite public and international pressure, seek to gain power and have more patience to achieve this goal,” she said. “They are playing a long game in this regard and have Iran’s support, while the Iraqis doubt the resilience of the United States.”
And “many Iraqis fear that the discussion about the withdrawal from Baghdad, which Iran is pushing towards achieving, could find an open door in Washington, not only because the team that carried out the American withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 returned once again to the White House, but because the administration of US President Joe Biden can coexist with a militia-led Iraqi government if attacks on American interests decline,” the newspaper said.
The magazine went on to say, “There are fears among many Iraqis about the repercussions of the US administration’s deadline to withdraw combat forces from Iraq by the end of this year… It is certain that Washington’s changing priorities, and the stress from Iraq is not limited to the position of the Democratic administration only… The administration has threatened Former Republican President Donald Trump closed the US embassy in Baghdad, after an increase in militia attacks on US military and diplomatic staff.
Moreover, Washington’s sharp political vicissitudes are confusing its friends and partners in Iraq, many of whom have begun looking for other foreign sponsors to counter Iranian influence.
How to avoid Iraq the fate of Afghanistan?
And the American magazine considered that “despite these similarities, Iraq differs, of course, which gives it an opportunity to avoid the fate of Afghanistan.”
“Unlike Afghanistan, Iraq has a history of strong national institutions.. There is support from the Democratic and Republican parties in America to continue the path in Iraq, and to lead the anti-ISIS coalition, to prevent the terrorist group from re-emerging, and to strengthen economic relations, and the United States cannot He ignored the threat that Iran’s expansionist agenda in Iraq posed to the region, according to the newspaper.
The newspaper emphasized that “regardless of American interests, Iraq has a better chance of curbing the rule of militias strongly backed by Iran, and unlike the Taliban, the diverse Iraqi militias lack unified leadership and national acceptance, and the success of the American mission against ISIS and al-Qaeda in Syria.” It depends on the presence of the United States in Iraq.”
She added: “However, Iraq can move towards the Afghan path, if relations between Washington and Baghdad are not controlled, and this is represented in preserving and diversifying the US role in combating terrorism as well, and preventing Iran from implementing the scheme to destroy US-Iraqi military relations, with The militias’ insistence on continuing to attack American interests, knowing that the United States lacks patience and deterrence.”
A joint US-Iraqi role
“Foreign Policy” went on to say that “in order for the US-Iraqi relations to continue, there is a need to shift the focus towards investing in building the Iraqi military and security forces, and strengthening the institutional capacity to confront terrorism and in other areas. Therefore, achieving this goal requires that the US presence in Iraq is apolitical, and Washington must clearly state that redrawing its military presence in Iraq to turn to providing advice and assistance, does not mean abandoning Iraq at all.
Crucially, the Iraqi people need to feel the benefits of the relationship in areas such as commerce, health care and education, as a series of US-Iraq strategic dialogues attempted to reach such a goal.
“Foreign Policy” concluded its report by saying: “After what happened in Afghanistan, Iraqi leaders may see that the United States is no longer a reliable partner... However, the trend is towards finding an alternative to Washington, whether it is Iran or Turkey, or any foreign country.” Others, will only exacerbate Iraq’s dependence on unreliable partners.. Iraqis must reform their government, and recognize the extent of corruption, as the real challenge to Iraqi national security.” link
The white paper and the private sector 08/21
Historically and in the most important experiences, the private sector has not had the invisible hand that regulates its decisive performance in establishing the modern state with its government and sovereignty. On the contrary, the state had a decisive role in creating the conditions for the success of the private sector, from creating markets externally and internally, to interfering with scales, prices and specifications. It prevents what floats basic needs with social justice, and that is why it was said (a person without a state loses everything).
The principle of the state’s reference in managing the economy is the cornerstone, and this does not mean closing down as much as it means promoting openness to the private sector in the light of this.
Is our private sector ready for this role? Yes, it will be ready whenever the law is supportive, and we know that, in practice, there is no representative of this sector legally, as the largest alignment belongs to the public sector, which is still seeking to rehabilitate the financial sector, including reforming government banks, and enabling the civil ones, to play Her required role as stated in the white paper p. 54.
How can private banks organize with the financial sector when it is not qualified after 18 years of striving and programs to rehabilitate the Rafidain and Rasheed Banks? Also, mere qualification does not mean that private banks integrate with the two banks or with the Central Bank, automatically with a unified development policy.
The reason is known, which is the banks that violate the simplest rules of banking, which did not shed enough light on them, so that depositors regain confidence in banking work, so the role of private banks has become specific.
By 10% or less, not to mention the supporting confusion. Transparency in it is not just a guide to integrity, but rather it is a vital element without which it is impossible to imagine any complete success.
As long as there was money outside banks equivalent to two-thirds of the monetary bloc, the internal and external debt was a solution, and with a budget deficit, the opponents of the white paper were tossing it around, a deficit that comes in the context of the growing relationship with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
But the arc is still detached. Retreat does not serve anyone, and so does closure. After an experience that took place in the public and private spheres before and after 2003, we were not envious of it, so it deserved and fulfilled the review.
The white paper is well aware of the seriousness of the matter from structural adjustment to trade liberalization and its objective and subjective growth factors. It was subjected to constructive criticism from parties that were active in the two phases before and after 2003, and it cannot be compromised in any case, but rather to proceed with the national option through e-governance and e-government with a national will First . link
Source: Dinar Recaps
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