Silver Report Uncut: Fed Suspends GDP Tracker After Cascade of Heavy GDP Downgrades


Silver Report Uncut
Sep 4, 2021

Between today’s catastrophic jobs report, the near record plunge in consumer confidence, the troubling contraction in retail sales where reports have missed expectations for 3 months in a row, whether it is due to the end of stimulus payments or the recent restrictions from the crisis, one bank after another took a machete, or in the case of Morgan Stanley, a nuke to their GDP Q3 forecast, with Goldman now expecting GDP to grow just by 3.5% this quarter, its second downgrade in a month (it was 8.5% just one month ago) while Morgan Stanley yesterday cut its Q3 GDP to just 2.9% from 6.5% previously.

And while banks were as usual well behind the curve, only catching up to what our readers already knew one month ago, the regional Fed were dead last, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model yesterday cut to just 3.7% from 5.3% on Sept.1

A quick look at the Ny Fed’s website where the Nowcasting Report is housed now shows this:

Suspension Notification

The uncertainty around the p******c and the consequent volatility in the data have posed a number of challenges to the Nowcast model. Therefore, we have decided to suspend the publication of the Nowcast while we continue to work on methodological improvements to better address these challenges.

After Ida’s remnants swept through the Northeast, affecting residents of New York, New Jersey, and other surrounding states, preliminary figures of the storm’s overall economic losses and damage could be in the tens of billions of dollars.

Chuck Watson from Enki Research told Bloomberg that the estimated economic losses and damage could amount to $50 billion to $60 billion range for the Northeast.

He said this would make it the fifth costliest to hit the US, behind Katrina, Harvey, Maria, and Sandy.


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