“Rate Change Imminent” – Sat. PM KTFA Thoughts, News w/ MilitiaMan 12-11-21

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Samson » December 11th, 2021

Time to reform the global financial system

7th December, 2021 by Jeffrey D. Sachs

At last month’s COP26 climate summit, hundreds of financial institutions announced that they would commit trillions of dollars to work on financing climate change solutions. However, the road is not without a major hurdle. In fact, the global financial system impedes the flow of finance to developing countries, and this creates a deadly financial trap for many.

Economic development depends on investing in three main types of capital: human capital (health and education), infrastructure (energy, digital transformation, transportation, and urban infrastructure), and business. Poorer countries have lower per capita levels of each of these types of capital, and thus have the potential to achieve rapid growth by investing in a balanced manner in each. Nowadays, this growth must be green and digital, avoiding the high pollution growth of the past.

Global bond markets and banking systems should provide enough money to “catch up” the high-growth phase of sustainable development, but this is not happening. The flow of money from global bond markets and banks to developing countries remains small, expensive for borrowers, and unstable. Borrowers from developing countries pay annual interest rates that are often 5% to 10% higher than the borrowing costs of rich countries.

Borrowers from developing countries are considered a high-risk group. Bond rating agencies automatically give some countries lower ratings simply because they are poor. However, these perceived high risks are overestimated, and often turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

When a government resorts to floating bonds to fund public investments, it generally depends on the ability to refinance some or all of the bonds as they mature, provided that the long-term path of its debt relative to government revenue is acceptable. And if the government suddenly finds itself unable to refinance maturing debt, it will likely be pushed into default – not out of bad faith or a long-term default, but because of a lack of cash on hand.

This is what happens to many governments of developing countries. International lenders (or rating agencies), for often arbitrary reason, imagine Country X to be uncreditworthy. This perception results in a “sudden stop” of new loans to governments. In the absence of access to financing, the government is forced to default, thus “justifying” previous concerns. Then the government usually turns to the International Monetary Fund for emergency financing. It usually takes years or even decades for a government to restore its global financial reputation.

Governments of rich countries that borrow on international markets in their currencies do not face the risk of a sudden stop, because their central banks act as lenders of last resort. Lending to the US government is largely safe because the US Federal Reserve can buy Treasuries in the open market, in effect ensuring that the government is able to carry over the outstanding debt.

The same applies to eurozone countries, assuming that the European Central Bank acts as a lender of last resort. When the European Central Bank failed briefly in this role in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, many eurozone countries (including Greece, Ireland, and Portugal) temporarily lost access to international capital markets. After that disaster – the experience that nearly brought about the eurozone’s demise – the European Central Bank cemented its function as lender of last resort, engaging in quantitative easing through massive purchases of eurozone bonds, thereby relaxing the borrowing terms for affected countries.

Thus, rich countries generally borrow in their own currencies, at low cost and with minimal risk of illiquidity, except for moments of unusual policy mismanagement (as did the US government in 2008, and the European Central Bank shortly thereafter). By contrast, low- and lower-middle-income countries borrow in foreign currencies (mainly dollars and euros), pay extraordinarily high interest rates, and experience sudden stops.

For example, Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio (83.5%) is much lower than that of Greece (206.7%) or Portugal (130.8%), yet Moody’s rates the creditworthiness of Ghanaian government bonds at B3, and this Several degrees lower than the ratings of Greece (Ba3) and Portugal (Baa2). Ghana pays about 9% on the ten-year borrowing, while Greece pays 1.3% and Portugal only 0.4%.

Major credit rating agencies (Fitch, Moody’s, and Standard & Poor’s Global) allocate investment grade ratings for most rich and upper middle income countries, but assign subinvestment grade ratings to nearly all lower middle income countries and all lower income countries. For example, Moody’s currently assigns investment grade to only two lower middle income countries (Indonesia and the Philippines).

Trillions of dollars in pension, insurance, bank, and other investment funds are being channeled by law, regulation, or internal practice away from less investment grade securities. Once an investment grade sovereign rating is lost, it is very difficult to recover it unless the government has the backing of a major central bank. During the 2000s, 20 governments—including Barbados, Brazil, Greece, Tunisia, and Turkey—were downgraded to investment grade, and of the five countries that have regained their investment grade rating since then, four have been in the European Union. (Hungary, Ireland, Portugal, and Slovenia), none of which were in Latin America, Africa, or Asia (the fifth was Russia).

For all this, reforming the global financial system is a long-standing imperative. Developing countries with good growth prospects and vital development needs should be able to borrow reliably and at decent market terms. To this end, the G-20 and the International Monetary Fund should devise a new and improved credit-rating system that captures the growth prospects and sustainability of long-term debt in individual countries. 

Banking regulations, such as those of the Bank for International Settlements, must then be reviewed and revised in accordance with an improved credit rating system to facilitate more bank lending to developing countries.

To help end sudden stops, the G-20 and the International Monetary Fund should use their financial power to support a liquid secondary market in sovereign bonds of developing countries. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other major central banks should establish currency-swap lines with central banks in low- and lower-middle-income countries. 

The World Bank and other development finance institutions should also significantly increase their grants and concessional loans to developing countries, especially the poorest. Last but not least, if rich countries and regions, including many US states, stop sponsoring money laundering and providing tax havens, developing countries will have more revenue to fund investments in sustainable development.

LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps


MilitiaMan » December 11th, 2021

The UAE is going to change their work week to being like ours in the western world.. This is apparently being implemented to close out the old and usher in the new.. Their stated Fiscal year ends 12/31/2021. imo ~ MM

Samson » December 11th, 2021

Finance decides to continue working on official holidays during the current month

12/11/2021 12:23:01

The Ministry of Finance decided to continue working for its employees during the holidays of this month.

The ministry said in a statement, that it had decided “to continue the official working hours on Friday and Saturday during the current month in the budget department to complete the transactions of departments, ministries and governorates before the end of the fiscal year.”   LINK

In the document…Finance takes a decision regarding the budget department before the end of the current fiscal year

11th December, 2021

Today, Saturday, the Ministry of Finance decided to continue official working hours on Friday and Saturday in the Budget Department.   

According to a document, “the Ministry of Finance decided to continue the official working hours on Friday and Saturday in the budget department to complete the transactions of ministries and governorates before the end of the fiscal year.” LINK

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https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/Fiscal-year

“Fiscal year: calendar year

Definition: This entry identifies the beginning and ending months for a country’s accounting period of 12 months, which often is the calendar year but which may begin in any month. All yearly references are for the calendar year (CY) unless indicated as a non calendar fiscal year (FY).”

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Planning determines the priority of projects in the 2022 budget

11th December, 2021

Today, Saturday, the Ministry of Planning identified the priority of projects in the 2022 budget.

The ministry’s spokesman, Abdul-Zahra Al-Hindawi, told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): “The important projects that will be included in next year’s budget will be prioritized for ongoing projects and registration.” Execution,” noting that “the focus will be on projects that have different completion rates.” He explained that “the inclusion of new projects will not be extensive as long as the old ones are not implemented,” noting that “the inclusion of new projects will only be for the utmost necessity and with the approval of the Council of Ministers.”

The Ministry of Planning announced, earlier, that there are more than 6000 projects under implementation.

Ministry spokesman Abdul-Zahra Al-Hindawi told the Iraqi News Agency (INA): “There are more than 6000 projects under implementation,” noting that “the ministry’s priority is how to sign these projects and ensure that they do not stop in front of any financial or any other circumstance.” He added that “there is a focus on service-oriented projects with high rates of implementation and projects that provide job opportunities, including health, housing, education, roads, irrigation, water and sewage projects,” noting that “these projects are essential because they represent a service to the citizen while providing job opportunities.”  LINK

MilitiaMan » December 11th, 2021

The money at to which these projects will be completed could not be completed if at a program rate. imo.. They will require the new exchange rate that will support the re construction effort. The new system in place at the borders will add massive revenue streams, just as the liquid natural gas that is being sold.. All of it and much more will add to the bottom line for the new real effective exchange rate (REER) to come. There is no reason to have small category notes while at a program rate. We know they have told the citizens on TV about small notes. This article is additional support a rate change is imminent.. imo. ~MM

Samson » December 11th, 2021

Allawi from Dubai: The white paper achieved impressive results, including overcoming the financial collapse

10/12/2021 23:14:01

Minister of Finance, Ali Abdul Amir Allawi, said that the white paper had achieved impressive results, including overcoming the financial collapse “in the country.”

A statement by the ministry, which the agency {Euphrates News} received a copy of, stated that Allawi “was inaugurated on the occasion of the Iraqi National Day today, Friday, at the Expo 2020 in the sisterly United Arab Emirates, and the Iraqi delegation included the Minister of Trade, the Governor of the Central Bank, the head of the Investment Authority, a number of ministries’ undersecretaries and advisors to the Prime Minister.” 

In a speech on the occasion, Allawi said, “The government program and the sustainable development plan, which aimed at investing in people, modern technology and work institutions to create added values, has become the main cause of poverty and epidemics, reducing disparities in living standards, climatic changes and water pollution. Therefore, it is necessary to work seriously to sustain life in our country and ensure enjoyment of life.” society in peace and prosperity by 2030 through partnership between the public and private sectors.

He added, “The white reform paper was launched to correct structural distortions in the economy, the labor market, and in financial and monetary policies, and during its second year, despite the challenges, it achieved impressive results, which is to overcome the financial collapse and global indebtedness and achieve a cash surplus that will be a base for starting towards addressing the deterioration that affected the productive economic sectors.”

Allawi also stressed that “the reform paper stressed the need to rebuild all sectors and in various fields, whether leadership, administrative, humanitarian and personal. Technological skills occupied a large part of the government’s concerns, such as digitization, automation of systems, and the application of the “AYSCUDA” system, which is one of the modern systems to strengthen reform measures to improve performance Financial institutions, including the collection of customs taxes at ports and border crossings.

And he stated, “Our participation in this civilized platform in Dubai for the year 2021 provides us with many opportunities to benefit from the outputs of science, technology and artificial intelligence in particular, and opens new horizons in the world of economy and education, and stimulates talent and entrepreneurship.”  LINK

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Finance Minister : Iraq’s participation in the Expo opens new horizons and stimulates talent  LINK

The Minister of Finance announces the adoption of new tax collection systems  LINK

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MilitiaMan » December 11th, 2021

The above was yesterday and published today, it being a shoulder to shoulder meeting and the below is from this past May, which is an agreement they signed with “AYSCUDA” to digitize and automate the borders.

The new system is about International Trade. It is also about adding value to the State and it’s people and outside of just oil revenue. They had an expo out side of the country in the UAE with the CBI Governor and Ali Abdul Amir Allawi.

 The meeting tells us they helped over come the financial collapse and global indebtedness and achieved a cash surplus.

Today is the Centenary of Iraq. With that in mind we see that the USA has relinquished 17,000 artifacts including the famous Gilgamesh tablet. It must be Priceless. 

The symbolism for today is about the Logo they chose  to usher the centenary in with. The Iraqi Flag, the Palm Tree and the Ishtar Star (8 sided). For instance, the Flag of Iraq during the era of 1959-1963 had one on center. In addition to that, the currency of Iraq has been noted to use that same like symbols both today and in the past.
 
We know there has been on going public education on the historic IQD notes that were lacking the three zeros. Why educate the citizens, while at a program rate of 1,460?

Because the project to delete the three zeros from the exchange rate has been in play since 2003 and is now being completed. They are coming full circle.

They’ll need the new small category notes again that will effectively be repeated once again.

The plan may not have always been about the saving of the global system or maybe it has been all along? I don’t know, but, fiat systems come to an end at some point. Maybe now or very soon is the time they have set for them to remove the zeroes to openly go international on a global scale.

This newer system is (imo) AYSCUDA is ushering in will bring a digital transformation that will level the playing field not just in Iraq but globally, as noted both above and below. Hundreds of countries are involved.

To make the statement that: (“The white reform paper was launched to correct structural distortions in the economy, the labor market, and in financial and monetary policies, and during its second year, despite the challenges, it achieved impressive results, which is to overcome the financial collapse and global indebtedness and achieve a cash surplus that will be a base for starting towards addressing the deterioration that affected the productive economic sectors.”), is to include not just Iraq having a financial collapse, they take it to a global level.

I have not ever heard that Iraq was ever indebted to the world. In fact, it appears they have paid their debt in compensation of about $58 billion to Kuwait. They are however in the quote, suggesting or stating that Iraq having had impressive results over the preceding two years has achieved their goals to save the world (global) financially, imo.

Be sure for that to happen the new exchange rate is not going to come out of a sanctioned program rate currency, not a chance. imo..

Yesterday was Victory Day to commemorate all those that died from past wars, etc. Today the Centenary, apparently will be a fresh start and a reminder of the past but more important to tell us where they are going over the next 100 years.. Lets see the game-changer show us the real value of the IQD in the International Markets, has to be time imo.. lol ~ MM

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“The Star of Ishtar or Star of Inanna is a symbol of the ancient Sumerian goddess Inanna and her East Semitic counterpart Ishtar. The owl, was one of Ishtar’s primary symbols. Ishtar is mostly associated with the planet Venus, which is also known as the morning star” ~ Wik

27 May 2021

 The ASYCUDA system is expected to be a game-changer in customs processing in Iraq and improve ease of doing business in the country.

UNCTAD and Iraq signed an agreement on 27 May to help the country modernize and automate its customs procedures.

Acting UNCTAD head Isabelle Durant and Iraq’s finance minister Ali Abdul Ameer Allawi inked the deal to implement a project that will promote trade and development in Iraq.

“The agreement that we are signing today signals the beginning of one of the most ambitious projects in the region,” Ms. Durant said.

She said the project would place Iraq among the most advanced countries in the region in modernizing and automizing customs and improving its international business ratings.

ASYCUDA to reform customs clearance

The project will involve the implementation of UNCTAD’s Automated System for Customs Data (ASYCUDA) to reform and automate the customs clearance process.

The latest version, ASYCUDAWorld, uses and takes advantage of the latest open and web-based technology.

The project will also build a single window for international trade to facilitate compliance with import and export requirements.

This would lessen the cost and streamline the process at border control, reducing barriers to international trade.

Based on the ASYCUDA experience in other countries, Ms. Durant said, it is likely that customs revenues in Iraq will increase and that the release time at the border will be halved through the project.

“More customs revenue will mean more means for spending and investment, and hence more support for the people of Iraq,” she said.

Committed to international standards

Minister Allawi said the Iraqi government is committed to ensuring its processes and procedures are automated in line with the best international standards.

“We selected ASYCUDA after a rigorous selection process,” Mr. Allawi said, “because the system has been implemented in nearly 100 countries and shown excellent results in all aspects of customs management and procedures.”

He said the system would dramatically improve the operations of the Iraqi customs authority and help reduce or eliminate many of the problems confronting the country’s international trade.

“Of course, the opportunities for corruption, extortion and malfeasance will also be radically reduced,” Mr. Allawi said.

He said increased revenues due to automation of customs operations would enable Iraq to plug gaps in finances for development. “Currently Iraq is losing a huge amount in uncollected customs revenue,” he said.

The system would generate timely, accurate and valuable data and information to support government planning, said director-general of the Iraqi customs authority, Sadiq Howeidi Abbas.

Improving ease of doing business

The customs project is also expected to improve ease of doing business in Iraq.

It will speed up customs clearance through the computerization and simplification of procedures, minimizing administrative costs to the business community and the Iraqi economy.

UNCTAD’s technology and logistics director, Shamika N. Sirimanne, said the project would be important for the economic development of Iraq.

“It will boost the efficiency of government services for trade and advance national digitalization strategies through introducing e-declarations and e-payments,” she said.

The project would bolster the implementation of economic reforms in Iraq and the government’s efforts to revive the country’s economy, make it more competitive and less dependent on oil revenues.

Ms. Sirimanne said Iraq would also benefit from the transfer of technology and skills as part of the project’s capacity-building activities.

https://unctad.org/news/unctad-and-iraq-sign-deal-modernize-customs-procedures

Source: Dinar Recaps

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