The Nomad Economist: Auto Loans, the Mother of all Credit Bubbles Ready to Pop


The Nomad Economist
Premiered Dec 22, 2021

Today’s economic boom is driven not by any great burst of innovation or growth in productivity. Instead, it is driven by another round of financial engineering that converts equity into debt. It sacrifices future growth for present consumption. And it redistributes even more of the nation’s wealth to corporate executives, wealthy investors, and Wall Street financiers. Predatory banking alive and well.

Welcome to the Buyback Economy. Banks and private equity firms searching for high-yield investments have fueled a boom in subprime auto loans to buyers who can’t afford the loans, including those who recently filed for bankruptcy. Today the Car Loans is The New Subprime Bubble. $60,000.00 trucks – no money down, no interest, no job required, seven-year loan. What could go wrong? Welcome to The Atlantis Report. Banks have been pumping the economy for as long as this country existed.

The secret of banking is this. Some time ago, the supreme court said that and unconditional promise to pay is exactly the same as cash. They were trying to make gold/silver certificates to be accepted as money. Today the banks have taken that step a little bit further. When you go to a bank for a loan, you don’t really get a loan. What the bank does is to have you sign a promissory note. Once the promissory letter is approved, they deposit, in a transaction account, the promissory letter as if it was money.

The check the bank gives you is drawn from that account. The banks did not put any skin in the game, but on a foreclosure, the bank gets the property. With the money they make from doing this, some of this goes to buy politicians and educators and the media. They control the NEW YORK TIMES. They buy up all the public corporations. Now that is power far more than any president According to the latest data from the Federal Reserve, total auto loans and leases outstanding for new and used vehicles increased by another 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter. This was a factor in pushing total American consumer debt to a new record of $4.15 trillion in September. How much more can the auto loan bubble blow up before it pops?

Meanwhile, auto loan delinquencies are surging. Vehicle loans and leases outstanding have soared to a record of $1.19 trillion. Since Q3 2009, auto loan balances have grown by 62%. That compares to a 19% increase in CPI with a population growth of 8%. In other words, the overall burden of auto loans has increased in real terms. Over the last decade, auto-loan balances have ticked up from 5.1% of GDP in 2009 to 5.6% of GDP today. Digging deeper into the numbers reveals more troubling news.

The increase in outstanding auto loan balances has occurred despite a 1.6% decline in new vehicle sales so far in 2019. Used vehicle sales have also been lackluster Wolf Street pinpoints a number of factors that help explain the increase in auto loan debt despite falling auto sales. Higher Average Transaction Prices for new vehicles ($38,000) and used vehicles ($14,000). Rising loan-to-value ratios. Lengthening the average duration of auto loans: 84 months are typical, 96 months are available.

Increasing the popularity of leases by people who could otherwise have paid cash for their vehicles. Meanwhile, auto loan delinquencies reached a 19-year high earlier this year and have continued to push up to an all-time record of $62 billion in Q3. Delinquent loans now makeup 4.71% of outstanding auto loans, just above the level of Q3 2009 — in the aftermath of the 2008 crash, and just below the all-time peak in Q4 2010 when millions of Americans were unemployed. As current delinquencies are hitting the lenders’ balance sheet and income statement, the flow continues, and more loans are becoming delinquent. And lenders are still making new loans to risky customers, and a portion of those loans will become delinquent too.


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