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The Nomad Economist
Premiered Dec 30, 2021
The long-awaited Black Swan is here We are moving towards an economic Armageddon that will shake the world to its core.
A new study says there’s a 70% chance that a recession will occur in the next six months. There’s a 70% chance that a recession will hit in the next six months, according to this new research from the MIT Sloan School of Management and State Street Associates. The researchers created an index comprised of four factors and then used the Mahalanobis distance — a measure initially used to analyze human skulls — to determine how current market conditions compared to prior recessions.
The global economy is already in the worst distress that we have seen since 2008, and it appears that the global slowdown is actually picking up pace as we have entered 2020. Banks create money from loans. The markets are high, but debts are even larger. The economy booms on borrowed money until you hit the Minsky Moment. The bankers have loaded our economy up with their debt products, but we’ve seen the Minsky Moment coming. Our economy is on the edge of the precipice, and the last thing we need is any more problems. The Banks were using stock gains to maintain liquidity, Powell wants to keep those banks afloat, ultimately stocks are just a part of that puzzle.
I am still of the belief; the economy was toast in 2008, the last 11 years as a form of life support, pulling the plug is the decision that’s faced today. Trillions in debt to squeeze out a miserable 1.8% GDP growth. The juice ain’t worth the squeeze. The US manufacturing weekly Hours index has been plunging since mid 2019 (now at some 40.40). And along comes the coronavirus. China did what everyone else did, but saw that their economy had filled up with the banker’s debt products before it crashed. China claiming everything is under control is ludicrous. The “official” numbers from China have said that the virus growth rate for the past ten or so days has been linear. At approximately 3 to 4000 cases per day. This has nothing to do with the growth rate of the virus and everything to do with test kit availability and the fact the testing labs are running at maximum capacity. If it’s growing faster than they can test for it – it’s out of control.
In the last 24 hours, according to the World Health Organization, we had the most cases in a single day. The primary concern is not as much for the dead and dying, as it is for the millions of people not working, not out shopping and not traveling — kind of cold-hearted but true. China is clearly lying about this virus. They’d never shave a few points of their GDP for “the flu.” Four hundred million people are now under lockdown. That’s more than the entire population of the US. Lockeded down, people can’t produce or consume.
Let’s say 25% of the 400 million under lockdown are working-age. That’s 100 million people not going to work. China is an export and construction based economy with a mountain of debt. Regional Chinese banks were already collapsing pre-virus. China is now on the precipice. On top of its domestic problems, China has a big problem with its other largest trade partner. The EU is China’s largest trading partner, and China is the EU’s second-largest trade partner after the United States.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXTRik196LY
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