The Nomad Economist: Europe on the Brink of Economic and Political Meltdown

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The Nomad Economist
Premiered Mar 9, 2022

The global economy is enthralled with the problems at the start of 2019 ; with another major economic crisis brewing in Europe .

The growth of the continent has slowed practically to a standstill, and two of its four biggest economies are on the brink of recession. The Eurozone Crisis has taken a significant toll – both economic and political – on EU member states, including the Union as a whole.

The EU, One of the world’s most extraordinary experiments in governance–a union throwing together what is now 28 countries with wildly different cultures, to fight around a negotiating table rather than on the battlefield–is under siege from within.

Europe is facing economic crisis, immigration crisis, Brexit Crisis, secession crisis, and Rise of nationalism and regionalisms.

And demographically, it doesn’t look good. The debt crisis started in 2008 with the collapse of Iceland’s banking system, then spread , primarily to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain in 2009.

It has resulted in a loss of confidence in European businesses and economies. The ECB is under fire from all sides for its incapacity to stimulate Europe’s economies.

The European banks are facing a make or break moment. European banks are in crisis for structural and cyclical reasons.

Abraham Lincoln once had a very famous saying. He said a house divided could not stand. One must remember that the EU has initially been set up to mimic the U.S. in its structure. But that isn’t working out. That should be taken as a hint that the U.S. isn’t successful either.

It is evident that we are moving towards a Financial Armageddon that will shake the world to its core. The numbers simply don’t lie.

Call it a “re-alignment” if you like, but in practical terms, it is the recognition that our path was an unsustainable illusion. We are but pawns in the giant game known as the global economy.

 The situation has become dreadful, and the numbers do not work. Borrowing money to simply pay the interest on past debt and Negative Interest Rates is not a prescription that leads to economic nirvana and bliss.

BREXIT to the West, POLEXIT to the East, GREXIT to the South. Full speed ahead with Migration! What could be better than Business bringing energy Supply and Demand together at any cost with the added benefit of denying Russia a lucrative Natural Gas market. The only problem is nationalism, religion, and culture get in the way!

The EU passed laws to make it legal for bail-ins. So if you have under 100,000 Euros, you would lose 40% of your account. If you have over 100,000, you will lose 60%. The recession has left a legacy of non-performing loans on Italian banks’ balance sheets.

Policymakers in Italy understand well significance of correcting their banks’ problems to boost a healthy economic recovery. Reforming the judicial and extrajudicial processes for recovering collateral offers the potential of improving banks’ balance sheets and improving financial stability, not only by increasing loan collections directly, but also by enhancing borrowers’ incentive to service their existing debt.

A combination of market volatility caused by Brexit, questionable politicians, and a poorly managed financial system worsened the situation for Italian banks in mid-2016. A staggering 17% of Italian loans, approximately $400 billion-worth, were junk, and the banks needed a significant bailout.

A full collapse of the Italian banks is arguably a more significant risk to the European economy than a Greek, Spanish, or Portuguese collapse because Italy’s economy is much larger.

Italy has frequently asked for help from the EU, but the EU recently introduced “bail-in” rules that prohibit countries from bailing out financial institutions with taxpayer money without investors taking the first loss. Germany has been clear that the EU will not bend these rules for Italy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJD9q4sMI5g

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