The Survival Economist: India Bank Runs and Bank Bankruptcies, Crisis Widens amid a Collapsing Economy


The Survival Economist
Mar 12, 2022

A full-fledged crisis is going to hit the Indian banking sector soon with Yes Bank, Lakshmi Vilas Bank, Dewan Housing Finance Corporation DHFL, Indiabulls Housing Finance, Reliance Capital, Altice and scores of Non-Banking Finance Companies going bankrupt.

Tighten up India’s own Lehman moment is approaching fast.

The recent banking catharsis, which was brewing up since the past years, was bound to erupt and was indeed the major spark leading to the banking system being cash strapped.

Worst times seem yet to come and sincerely hope that the rejuvenation measures take lesser than four years to resuscitate a somewhat dwindling economy for now. The slowing of the economy is beginning to reflect on the individual segments too.

GDP grew at its slowest pace in the past five years in the last quarter of fiscal 2019. Indian banks are being run like a source of easy loot. The financial collapse is coming soon; And can be seen all over the wall.

India’s economy is crashing & crashing hard. So How bad is The Non-Performing Asset NPA problem with Indian banks?

And Could the revelation of actual truth lead to economic collapse? The problem is massive, and it will lead to the collapse of many banks. Indeed real figure of Non Performing Asset is massive, some banks (as big as Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank) have hidden NPA accounts, some zones still follow manual declaration of NPA, furthermore other measures such as evergreening, check purchasing and illegal debit credit is utilized to prevent account from being turning NPA.

NPA indicates the amount of loan that was not returned by the customer. An asset becomes non-performing when it ceases to generate income for the bank. As per the current norm, if a loan is overdue during the last 90 days, it will be categorized as a Non-Performing Asset (NPA)

The Gross NPAs had increased from a low of 2.5 % in 2011-12 to 10% in 2016-17. Recent figures for the Index of Industrial Production are not very encouraging either. It will further lead to a surge of NPA.

Here’s a brief synopsis of India’s Bank NPA crisis and the ongoing resolution process – 2015: “Deep Surgery” started with the Asset Quality Review (AQR). One time special review of Bank Assets was completed under AQR in the second half of 2015.

All large borrower accounts were comprehensively audited Findings of AQR. AQR revealed a higher level of asset quality deterioration or NPAs within the banks. Most Banks were reported to be hiding bad assets under the practice of forbearance (a temporary repayment relief

AQR overrode such practices and helped determine the accurate level of bad loans that Banks were hiding. NPA levels suddenly shot up. NPAs in March 2015: INR 2.78 lakh crores.

NPAs in March 2018: INR 9.50 lakh crores. Please take a moment to consider the enormity of the crisis. INR 10 lakh crores (the US $150 billion) is larger than the GDP of 130 countries.

This amount was stuck with corporate borrowers, not returning to banks, thus choking credit growth, impacting other growing businesses, and impeding India’s economic growth.


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