Fri. AM KTFA News Articles/Thoughts about Iraq and Vietnam 4-8-22



Samson » April 8th, 2022

Adviser to Al-Kazemi: Iraq is in an excellent financial situation, and it is time to quickly approve the budget

8th April, 2022

A financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, described the financial situation in Iraq, which is derived from crude oil revenues, as “excellent.”

Mazhar Muhammad Salih told {Euphrates News}, “Iraq is in an excellent financial position at the present time, as during the past month, oil revenues increased to 11 billion dollars, and this is a very large number that has not been recorded for five decades.” He stressed that”this is a positive aspect, regardless of the profitability of the economy.”

Saleh added, “We imagine that it is time to present the financial budget law as soon as possible, especially since its draft for 2022 has been prepared for a long time and can be submitted and some amendments made to it.”

The Ministry of Oil, on the first of this April, announced that it had exported more than 100 million barrels during the month of March, achieving revenues that exceeded 11 billion dollars, which is the highest financial revenue achieved since 1972, according to the ministry. LINK

Clare » April 8th, 2022



Samson » April 8th, 2022

Slight decline in crude oil prices

8th April, 2022

Oil prices fell on the settlement, adding to the weekly losses due to uncertainty about the ability of the euro zone to impose effective sanctions on Russian energy exports, and after consuming countries announced massive withdrawals of oil from emergency reserves.

Prices were also pressured by concerns that the shutdown in China due to a new wave of Covid-19 would slow the recovery of oil demand.

Brent crude futures fell 49 cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $100.58 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $96.03 a barrel. In the previous session, both benchmarks fell more than 5% to their lowest closing levels since March 16.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told a NATO meeting that new measures taken by the bloc, including a ban on Russian coal, could be approved during the NATO meeting and that the bloc would discuss an oil embargo next time. As for China, the outbreak of the virus has led to widespread closures in Shanghai, its most populous city.

On Wednesday, member states of the International Energy Agency agreed to withdraw 60 million barrels, in addition to the 180 million that the United States announced last week to help bring down prices.   LINK

What Should Be Done After The Failure Of The Election Of The President Of The Republic Within The Specified Period?

8th April, 2022

The legal expert, Ali Al-Tamimi, explained the measures to be taken after the failure of one of the presidential candidates to pass, according to the date specified before the sixth of this April.

Al-Tamimi told Al-Maalouma, “The President of the Republic, Barham Salih, and according to Article 67 of the Constitution, for being the protector of the constitution, should consult the Federal Supreme Court to know its opinion on what the constitutional procedures have reached to find another period to elect one of the presidential candidates.”

He added, “The adjournment of the parliament session to further notice means that it will continue with the same quorum and will open the next time with the same quorum, meaning the session will remain as if it was still on a meeting date prior to April 6.” 

Al-Tamimi stressed that there is no such thing as a constitutional vacuum, but rather political differences that negatively reflected on the constitutional procedures that are a hanger on which these problems are always attached, while the President of the Republic continues to operate according to Federal Court decision 24 of 2022 until the election of a new president. LINK

Asian Development Bank: Vietnam set for a strong economic rebound

6th April, 2022

Việt Nam’s economy is expected to make a strong come back this year with a 6.5 per cent growth forecast, said economists from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) during a press conference yesterday in Hà Nội.

ADB said the forecast is based on the country’s high vaccination coverage (more than 90 per cent according to a government source and one of the world’s highest), trade expansion, and continued accommodative monetary and fiscal policies.

The Southeast Asian economy reported a 2.6 per cent growth last year as renewed COVID-19 outbreaks severely hampered its economic recovery, tightened the labour market, and disrupted manufacturing and supply chains. Inflation decelerated to 1.8 per cent in 2021 from 3.2 per cent in 2020 on weak domestic demand; last year’s inflation rate was the lowest since 2016.

The labour market suffered severe shocks from both the supply and demand sides as the economy weakened and workers left the labour force, which fell by 2 million workers aged 15 and over in Q3 from the previous quarter, said a report by ADB.

“High vaccination rates enabled the government to abandon harsh containment measures. This timely shift of the pandemic containment strategy helped restore economic activity and reduce bottlenecks in the business environment,” said ADB Country Director for Việt Nam Andrew Jeffries.

A recovering labour market and other stimulus measures will spur industrial growth by a forecast 9.5 per cent in 2022, contributing 3.6 percentage points to GDP growth. The sector got off to a strong start this year. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 53.7 in January (over 50 indicating expansion) and to 54.3 in February from 52.5 in December, the fourth straight month of growth.

The Government’s tourism-reopening policy implemented in March and the lifting of pandemic controls are expected to boost services, with the sector forecast to grow by 5.5 per cent and contribute 2.3 percentage points to GDP growth this year. Accelerated disbursements will drive construction and related economic activities.

Improved coordination between the central and local governments and restored labour mobility will continue to build domestic and foreign investor confidence. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which came into effect on January 1, 2022, is expected to accelerate trade recovery once the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, forming stable and reliable export markets.

On the other hand, ADB voiced concern over the high number of COVID-19 infections recorded since March, saying it may obstruct economic recovery should the country fail to bring the virus under control. Uncertainties regarding global oil prices may give spur inflation, which has been said to accelerate to 3.8 per cent in 2022 and 4 per cent in 2023.

ADB also urged the country to quickly move to reform its complex and rigid public investment procedures, saying it may hinder Việt Nam’s timely implementation of the infrastructure programmes, which are crucial to long-term economic development.   LINK

World Bank : Việt Nam’s economic growth forecast adjusted from 6.5% to 5.3% in 2022

5th April, 2022

Việt Nam’s economic growth forecast this year has been readjusted from 6.5 per cent to 5.3 per cent by the World Bank (WB), according to its latest economic growth update.

WB’s Chief Economist of the East Asia and Pacific Region of the World Bank Aaditya Mattoo said the main reasons behind the Southeast Asian economy’s lower forecast were COVID-19 Omicron variant and rising global oil prices.

Last October, WB’s forecast for Việt Nam’s economic growth in 2022 stood at 6.5 per cent as the country was among one of the world’s top economic performers during the pandemic. However, difficulties in dealing with Omicron including prolonged social distancing periods and out-of-control spread of the virus among the population had severely hampered its ability to speed up economic recovery. 

In addition, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed global oil prices to a record-high level, significantly handicapping Việt Nam’s economy, in which imported oil accounts for 3 per cent of its GDP. Mattoo added in the worst-case scenario for the country this year might see growth as low as 4.4 per cent. As global commodities such as iron, steel and food continued to rise, businesses should expect higher costs and countries taller barriers to joining the global supply chain. 

Meanwhile, the country’s high economic openness could be a double-edged sword during such a time. While having numerous trade deals signed in recent years including the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) could be beneficial, it would also leave Việt Nam more vulnerable to external economic shocks. 

The WB’s economist urged Việt Nam to take a more prudent approach to manage its financial system, especially the State Bank of Vietnam’s financial solutions, which should support the country’s integration effort into the global supply chain. 

Regarding the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, he said Việt Nam had been a successful model and an attractive destination among global investors in the last decades. The country’s role in the global economy, as a result, had improved significantly. While it had helped tremendously with poverty eradication, it was time Việt Nam implemented measures to develop robust service industries and improve productivity across multiple sectors of the economy. 

WB has readjusted its growth forecast for entire East Asia and Pacific Region down to 5 per cent for 2022 from 5.4 per cent last October with the largest regional player China could go as low as 4 per cent. In the event of the worst-case scenario, up to 6 million people in the region may find themselves unable to move past the poverty line with under US$5.5 a day to live on.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict would further complicate economic recovery in the region, said Manuela V. Ferro, Vice President, East Asia and Pacific at WB. She said only a solid economic foundation and sound policies could help countries weather the storm. Even countries with prudent fiscal policies should expect global backlash and in general lower growth this year.   LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps


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