Thurs. AM TNT News Articles 6-2-22

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TNT

Harambe:
Indonesia central bank sees 2023 avg rupiah exchange rate at 14,400-14,800/$ | CAN

(5/31/22)

JAKARTA : Indonesia’s central bank predicts the rupiah will weaken slightly against the U.S. dollar next year, even as the Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates several times through to 2023, its governor said on Tuesday.

Perry Warjiyo said the rupiah’s exchange rate is seen averaging at a range of 14,400 to 14,800 a dollar in 2023, compared with Bank Indonesia’s (BI) expectation for the currency to trade on average at 14,300 to 14,700 in 2022. 

The governor also gave a 2023 gross domestic product growth projection of 4.7-5.5 per cent, higher than BI’s outlook of 4.5-5.3per cent for 2022.

The rupiah traded at 14,580 a dollar at Tuesday’s market close and is down about 2.3 per cent so far this year, a depreciation rate that Warjiyo said was better than some other emerging markets.

“Export earnings have been able to support the stability of the exchange rate. Foreign currency supply is pretty good,” he told a hearing with parliament’s budget committee that discussed economic outlook for 2023.

Warjiyo said next year’s exchange rate outlook “is supported by good fundamentals and stabilisation measures that will be conducted continually by Bank Indonesia.”

Resource-rich Indonesia has been enjoying an export boom since last year, amid an rise in commodity prices.

BI expects Indonesia’s current account deficit to widen next year to 1.4 per cent to 2.2 per cent of GDP, from 2022’s deficit prediction of 0.5 per cent to 1.3 per cent, Warjiyo said.

However, the governor warned of “unfriendly global economic conditions”, citing the war in Ukraine and a projected increase in the U.S. Fed Funds Rate to 3.25 per cent by 2023.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati earlier this month told parliament she predicted government bond yields would rise significantly next year, giving a range of 7.34 per cent to 9.16 per cent for the benchmark 10-year tenure, due to potential capital outflows linked to global monetary tightening.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/indonesia-central-bank-sees-2023-avg-rupiah-exchange-rate-14400-14800-2718181

Zimbabwe forex auction rate remains above interbank rate | The Insider

(6/1/22)

Zimbabwe foreign currency auction rate today remained above the interbank rate which fell to $304.4223 to the United States dollar against yesterday’s auction rate of $308.5201.

The black market rates remained unmoved at $360 for cash to $450 for swipe and zipit transactions.

The interbank rate is based on a willing-seller-willing buyer concept, making one wonder what is driving the black market rate.

Two economists, Gift Mugano and Tony Hawkins, have predicted that the Zimbabwe dollar will be dead by this month but Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube was optimistic that measures introduced by the government will shore up the local currency.

The measures included paying local contractors half of their fees in United States dollars and staggering the payment of the Zimbabwe dollar portion so that huge sums are not offloaded onto the parallel market.

Source: Dinar Recaps


Tishwash:
Apple Moves Part Of IPad Production From China To Vietnam

The technology giant Apple has decided to move part of the production of its famous iPad from China to Vietnam, amid disruptions in the supply chain due to strict closures in and around Shanghai.

And asia.nikkei reported that Apple has asked component suppliers to increase stocks to protect against future shortages and the resulting supply bottlenecks.

For its part, the Chinese company “BYD” helped Apple build production lines in Vietnam, which may allow it to start soon producing a small number of popular tablets there.

With this step, the iPad manufacturing line becomes Apple’s second main line of products in Vietnam, after the AirPods production chain, which shows the company’s direction to diversify its supply chains, and highlights the growing importance of Vietnam for it.

Earlier, Apple announced the production of its latest smartphone “iPhone 13” in India, at the factory of “Foxconn”, the contract manufacturing partner near Chennai.

“We are excited to start manufacturing the iPhone 13 here in India for our local customers,” Apple told The Economic Times of India.

Apple has begun shifting some areas of iPhone production from China to other markets, including India, which is the second largest smartphone market in the world, and is also planning to assemble the iPad tablet computer there, according to Reuters.

Apple has started manufacturing iPhone phones in India since 2017, beginning with the iPhone SE, which was followed by the iPhone 11, iPhone 12, and now the iPhone 13.    link

ELECTRICITY ANNOUNCES NON-PAYMENT OF IRANIAN GAS DUES AND REDUCTION IN PROCESSING HOURS

The Ministry of Electricity announced its delay in paying Iran’s financial dues in exchange for gas supplies, explaining that the reduction in gas quantities caused a decrease in the hours of electricity supply in the midst of a hot summer season overshadowed by drought.

Iraq had announced its agreement with Tehran to pay $1.6 billion, starting from the first of June, to ensure the flow of gas during the four summer months.

And the Ministry of Electricity said in its statement today, Wednesday, that Iran has reduced by five million cubic meters the quantities of gas it exports, “which was a reason for reducing the hours of supplying electric power,” while the temperature is expected to reach 48 degrees Celsius by the end of the week, which means an increased need for refrigerants. and electricity.

He added, “The Iranian side has demanded the payment of financial obligations for gas dues from the Iraqi side, and with the delay in approving the general budget and searching for an alternative solution to the Food Security Law, this is the reason for the reluctance that we mentioned earlier.” The statement stated that there are efforts to communicate “with the Iranian side to reach satisfactory compromise solutions to pay the dues and continue pumping gas.”

Iraq, which has been living in the midst of a continuous political crisis for eight months, has not yet been able to approve a budget for 2022, as the major political parties are unable to reach an agreement to form a government and elect a president.

In May, Minister of Electricity Adel Karim said, “Iraq owes Iran 1.692 billion dollars for gas dues. The passage of the emergency support law will enable the payment of gas debts as of the beginning of next June, according to what we agreed upon with Iran.”

The mentioned figure is for the arrears for 2020, which Iraq has not yet paid due to the very complex mechanism, which the Iraqi authorities are forced to follow to benefit from an exemption from the US sanctions imposed on Iran.

Iraq is not allowed to hand over cash to Iran, and the money paid must be used to finance the import of food and medicine. The summer of 2021 also passed difficult for the Iraqis, as the country also witnessed frequent power cuts, and demonstrations, especially in the south of the country.

Iraq suffers from a crisis in energy and electricity, which usually worsens in the summer season, when the temperature sometimes touches 52 degrees Celsius. The country, whose infrastructure has deteriorated due to decades of war and sanctions, relies on Iran for a third of its gas needs.  link

Iraq is the fastest growing Arab country .. Why is this not reflected on the people

Unusually, Iraq recorded positive economic indicators in the past weeks, as Iraqi Finance Minister Ali Allawi confirmed that the country’s cash reserves are expected to rise to more than 90 billion dollars by the end of 2022, noting that this level is a record for Iraq, in the meantime.

The International Monetary Fund expected the Iraqi economy to grow by 9.5% this year, to be the .highest in the Arab world The Iraqi minister considered that the recovery in oil prices and the financial management, which he described as “wise”, helped the reserves reach the level of 70 billion dollars last April, after the country’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to an alarming level in 2020 when the Corona .pandemic caused in the collapse of global oil prices

Reasons for growth

These positive figures for the Iraqi economy raise questions about their causes, as the appearance of Muhammad Salih, the economic advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, indicates that the high volume of cash reserves in the country is due to the rise in global oil prices, with an estimated increase on average between 40% and 45% over last .year

Saleh added that the Iraqi government relies on oil to pay internal expenses after replacing it with the local Iraqi currency according to the dinar exchange rate issued by the Central Bank, .which is equivalent to 1460 dinars per dollar Consequently, since the external financial flows are greater than the volume of internal spending, which adopts a ratio of 1 to 12 according to the decision of the financial administration due to the failure to approve the country’s federal budget, this led to the accumulation of foreign .exchange at the Central Bank and an increase in the volume of reserves, as he put it 

And about the positives, he explained that the volume of foreign exchange is close to covering the value of the Iraqi currency and the volume of currency circulating locally, which constitutes a stabilizing factor for the dinar, which helps to face inflation inside the country due to the .repercussions of the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war

?Is it real growth 

The data of the International Monetary Fund raise many questions about whether the growth of the Iraqi economy is real, especially with regard to the stability of the national currency, and in this regard, the financial expert Mahmoud Dagher says that the high growth rate in Iraq is currently due to the emergence of the oil sector as the only source of economic added value, .While the non-oil economic sectors are declining

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Dagher explains that the economic growth announced by the International Monetary Fund is considered growth for the oil sector and not for the real Iraqi economy, and without the oil sector, Iraq will not record any real growth at such a percentage .announced by the Fund

He added that the rise in the reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq is not a complete indicator of the economic situation, explaining that the volume of reserves does not cover the volume of Iraqi cash, which amounted to 80 trillion dinars, and therefore the proportion of the volume of reserves is less than it was two years ago when the size of the Iraqi monetary bloc was approximately 60 trillion dinars, explaining that the current reserves provide a sufficient volume .of liquidity to import from abroad without providing financial stability for the local currency

And this opinion goes to Professor of Economics at the Iraqi University Abdul Rahman AlMashhadani, who says that the increase in the volume of central bank reserves is due to the difference in the ratio between Iraq’s imports in dollars and what the Iraqi government sells in the currency auction, explaining that Iraqi imports amounted to 8 billion dollars per month, while .the currency auction It sells a total of $4.5 billion per month

Its reflection on the Iraqis

Despite this economic boom revealed by the numbers, the Iraqis are wondering about the reasons that prevent this from being reflected on the Iraqi people, who suffer from high rates of inflation, poverty and unemployment. Public finances after the expiry of more than 5 months of .the fiscal year

Because of this, according to Al-Mashhadani, a problem arose for the government in how it handled the financial surplus, commenting that the Iraqi government had limited employment in the public sector since 2014 in light of the fact that the private sector has many problems and depends heavily on the public sector, as well as He stated that the recently approved law criminalizing normalization with Israel includes legal articles that will cause great harm to foreign .investment in Iraq, which will increase economic difficulties, according to it

And financial expert Mahmoud Dagher adds other reasons, which are that Iraq is witnessing political problems that hinder the formation of the government and the approval of the country’s general budget, which means a crisis in dealing with the Iraqi economy, which prevents Iraqis .from benefiting from the large financial returns

As for the former member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Ahmed Hama Rashid, he believes that the main reason for Iraqis not benefiting from the financial abundance is due to the lack of productive economy growth inside the country, which is the main driver of internal growth due to the provision of job opportunities, pointing out that Iraq is witnessing an increase in financial revenues with The continued decline of the productive economy, according to his .opinion

Rashid adds to Al Jazeera Net that there is no productive sector that contributed to the increase in the growth rate announced by the International Monetary Fund, and therefore Iraq can buy US treasury bonds or any other country with a small profit margin without being able to invest money internally, describing economic growth as a “bubble.” economic”, which leads to Iraq .remaining among the countries with a fragile economy unless it addresses its structural problems

As for the government, the appearance of Muhammad Salih, economic advisor to the Iraqi Prime Minister, believes that there are no positive repercussions in the Iraqi street unless the country’s general budget is approved, which includes social and investment expenditures, especially since it is hoped that the value of the country’s general budget, if approved, will reach 200 trillion dinars, .equivalent to $136 billion, up from $90 billion in the 2021 budget

And the Iraqis remain hostages of political positions that keep them from benefiting from the large financial revenues that Iraq has enjoyed, especially with the rise in oil prices and the .increase in the volume of Iraqi oil exports to a record level in the past months   link

Source: Dinar Recaps

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