The Survival Economist: Watch out for the Coming Black Swan Event


The Survival Economist
Premiered Jun 25, 2022

Financial Markets At Very High Risk Of Black Swan Event As systems become more complex, there’s greater opportunity for things to break down. More complex equals more fragile.

There are so many things that could go wrong with catastrophic results, the kinds of things we talk a lot about here are : – Financial meltdown. – Pandemic. – Massive/coordinated terror attack. – Widespread domestic unrest leading to martial law. – Foreign conflict leading to war or the threat of war. – Food shortages. – AI or other system malfunctions that take down the grid or banking or other systems and lead to chaos.

Because so many people rely on social media or corporate news for their info, most people don’t have a clue. We all know it wouldn’t take much to start a chain of events that could be devastating.

The banking system is failing. The US Fed has injected close to $4T to keep it functioning thus far. They are now buying treasuries with fresh liquidity. The Repo market is increasingly full of bad credit and no longer provides this ability to keep the markets growing. Expect a ‘blow-off top’ followed by panic selling once banks have begun to unload these treasuries and own repurchased shares.

Sadly, once again, the public has become too complacent that the US markets will rise forever. They will be wiped out while they sleep. WATCH THE BOND MARKET for any sign of a sell-off that could take mere seconds.

The Fed has indicated that it will keep the banks (i.e., treasury markets) supplied with new money for three more weeks; then, what happens if the Repo market is still broken and can’t buy more treasuries?

Remember, bankers no longer serve the best interests of the public; only to enrich themselves – DON’T TRUST THEM!!!

Nassim Nicholas Taleb defines a “black swan” as a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable than it was.

The success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. An example of a black swan event is AI or other system malfunctions that take down the grid or banking or other systems and lead to chaos.”

Right there, this one issue can set the entirety of our Nations’ connectedness’ into a tailspin — automation and robotics…the world of AI and IT. The Federal government (and States) rely very heavily on cloud computing now. All financial records, biometric data (citizens and non-citizens), agency and government data, medical data, criminal records, tax/IRS data are stored by electronic means using cloud technology.

The majority of our Federal information systems are using third-party cloud systems — even the Dept of Defense and DHS have gone outside of the government for these services. We talk of and worry over the JIT (just in time) delivery system. None of us mention the JIT information system. Failure with our JIT information technology (I call it JIT-IT) will shut down our Nation faster than the JIT of our needed goods.

It wouldn’t take that much to create a man-made black swan event that would disable our financial system. Our automation is advanced enough and connected enough that the near-instantaneous transfer-of-funds or financial-evaporation of trillions of dollars can be implemented through the convenience of cloud technology.

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.

Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

 A Black Swan event is “an unforeseen event that may have catastrophic consequences.” Though the definition reads “unforeseen,” I would add that some who are acutely alert may “foresee” a so-called Black Swan (or a form of it) coming.

But they have no voice of significance to warn or change what may be happening.


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