“Rate Before EFSL?” – Thurs. PM KTFA Thoughts, News w/ Tivon 7-7-22

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KTFA

Samson » July 7th, 2022

Khazali Clarifies The Possibility Of Passing The Budget During The Era Of The Caretaker Government

7th July, 2022 Legal expert Raqiah Al-Khazali explained the possibility of passing the 2022 budget by Parliament in light of the presence of the caretaker government in power.

Khazali told “Al-Maalouma”, that “the current government is a caretaker and cannot send a budget to Parliament for its legislation, because it does not have the legal right to raise bills, including the budget.”

She added that “passing the budget is by going towards forming the new government, which in turn studies the budget and submits it to Parliament for a vote.”

And she indicated that “the budget can be legislated during the era of the current government by voting by members of Parliament by a simple majority within the House of Representatives, and therefore these votes give the government the legal framework to raise the budget in order to vote on it.”   LINK

Tivon » July 7th, 2022

I will need you to tell us why you are so focused on passing the budget with about 5 1/2 months left. What do you need it for? Because the EFSL is or will  address the areas below this year.

The budget is not even going to be fully financed. They will only allocate 51 trillion to it. And that will be for new projects only. You might as well wait until the 2023 budget comes about.

Why is everyone trying to undercut Al-Kazemi? Let the man work his magic with the EFSL for the remainder of the year. The deadline for picking the President of The Republic has already passed. That means the GOI is currently in violation of the constitution.

You know you can’t pass a budget without having a formed government. And whatever government gets seated will be the ones chosen after dissolution. Which would still leave us with who? Al-Kazemi and his cabinet.

They can’t even legally form a GOI for this year. So why are you wasting energy on the budget? You know the 2022 Budget dead in the water when Maliki is trying to use it for political points. IMO

Reconstruction? Done.

Investment Projects? Done.

Payment to Farmers? Pending.

Electric Dept To Iran? Done.

Ration Cards? Done.

Final Accounts? Done.

Reducing Unemployment? Pending. 

Oil & Gas? Pending.

Citizens Entitlements? Pending.

Social Protection? Pending. 

Raising the Value of the IQD? Pending. 

Import & Exports? Done.

Agriculture? Done.

Corruption? Done.

Wagmister » July 7th, 2022

They still need a seated government.  Fully compliant chapter 8. Dinar on the forex.  NUFF SAID….  

Tivon » July 7th, 2022

I don’t know if you have been paying attention. But the CBI does not have to announce that they are Article 8. The only time we will know that is when we literally see the rate on the Forex.

Secondly even Delta back in 2018 mentioned the reason the markets along with speculators (Us) will not be tipped off in advance as to when Iraq will become Article 8 Compliant simply because it will cause manipulation in the markets by merchants, traders, or just the local market as a whole.

Maliki even mentioned the Money Mafia just a couple of days ago. Which is why things are held close to the chest. Thirdly when you look at the PDF file of the EFSL it stated that the “current government, that is exercising emergency powers have constitutional obligations to address the economic crisis.

Which means if you look at the 100 Deputies that signed on to reduce the USD exchange rate at the earliest legislative session didn’t announce any requirements outside of their powers to execute the reforms that is contingent upon the government.

The formation of the government is a formality. Keep in mind it can take up to 60 days to form the government after the vote. You have to ask yourself how can Al-Kazemi request a reinstatement (USD Reduction) without waiting on the formation of the GOI?

Why hasn’t he not been called out for violating any constitutional law that he can not prematurely change the exchange rate without a GOI in place first?

How was he able to get a law published in the Gazette without a formed GOI? How was he able to get Kurdistan to sign over the Oil & Gas Law without a seated GOI?

Seems to me he will keep this trend going and actually release the new rate without a formed GOI. Frank said it himself on multiple occasions that the rate can come prior to the formation of the GOI.

Well wouldn’t this explain the reason of those 100 Deputies signing a contract to reduce the USD price at the earliest session which is this month.

Because they can only vote on a new government. It will still take two months to form one. Which would take us into September/October depending upon what happens next week. But the earliest legislative session starts after the holiday.

Because if you can find any articles supporting that we need a seated GOI in order for the reinstatement we would love to see it.

Because I can not find one. If it’s not in writing by any official I do not entertain it. IMO

Clare » July 7th, 2022

Market Review: Supplementary Budget Stabilises the Market

7th July 2022  By Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of AFC Iraq Fund..

Supplementary Budget Stabilises the Market

The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index, was up 3.4% for the month, and up 5.1% for the year.

The last two months of profit-taking continued into the first week of June, at which point it was halted by the passage of the supplementary budget bill on June 8th. This in turn stabilised the market, whose technical picture continues to be positive, as its two-month decline has only taken it to within the middle of its two-year up-trending channel (chart below) – an uptrend that ended a brutal multi-year bear market.

While there is the potential for the market to resume its decline, the macroeconomic fundamentals discussed here two months ago support thesis that the two-year uptrend should continue even if the upward slope moderates somewhat.

This picture contrasts favourably with the majority of global markets, which underscores Iraq’s attractive risk-reward profile and diversification benefits versus these markets, especially considering that Iraq’s economy, unlike most economies worldwide, is a significant beneficiary of the current high oil price environment.

Passage of the Supplementary Budget Bill

The delays in government formation, following the parliamentary elections on October 10th, meant that the current caretaker government, lacking the authority to propose a 2022 budget, was restricted to spending 1/12th of the 2021 budget on a monthly basis in 2022.

While the 1/12th spending rule allowed the government to continue funding its current expenditures (salaries, pensions, social security and the provisioning of goods and services), and some of the investment spending that was initiated in 2021; it nevertheless prevented it from fulfilling its continuing investment spending requirements. Crucially the 1/12th rule prevented the government from using the bounty of higher oil prices in alleviating the harmful effects of the sharply increasing food prices on the population.

The supplementary budget, in combination with the 1/12th spending rule for 2021, would in effect be in lieu of a 2022 budget.

As such the total effective budget for 2022 would be about USD 92 bn, an increase of 23% above that for 2021; and made up of the 1/12th rule spending allocation of about USD 75 bn for 2022, and the supplementary budget’s spending allocation of about USD 17 bn.

The supplementary budget bill, officially called the “Emergency Food Security Support” bill, has its origins in demands by parliament for extra spending measures in response to public anger over the increased cost of living, and to public pressure for the government to translate the sharply rising oil revenues into public expenditures.

However, the bill’s passage was almost imperilled by the Federal Supreme Court (FSC) ruling, in mid-May 2022, that the government lacked the authority to present a supplementary budget bill to parliament, essentially ruling that in proposing a supplementary budget bill to parliament, it was attempting to circumvent its lack of authority to present a full budget bill. Parliament’s dilemma was that although it was able to propose legislation, such legislation should not have any financial implications, which prevented it from proposing its version of the supplementary budget.

However, the political class’s ingenious solution was arguing that if a proposed legislation was not objected to by the government, then it can propose legislation with financial implications – which it did by legislating its own version of the supplementary budget bil, which was welcomed by the government.

The government has the wherewithal to fund the supplementary budget and still build a substantial budget surplus that it, or a future government, can utilise to continue pursuing expansionary budgets.

Iraq’s oil export sales are estimated to be at USD 117 bn for 2022, if Brent crude prices were to average USD 100 per barrel (/bbl) for the year as discussed here. Contrasting oil export sales with estimated spending for 2022 of USD 92 bn provides an idea of the expected budget surplus after accounting for the government’s non-oil revenues as well. Iraq’s extreme leverage to oil is manifested in the translation of every USD 1/bbl change in Brent’s average price for the year, into about USD 1 bn in oil export sales, and as such in the current high oil prices environment, there is an upside to Iraq’s oil export sales estimates.

Given that the year-to-date average for Brent crude is about USD 106/bbl, and that Brent future contracts imply an average of USD 111/bbl for the balance of the year, then Brent crude would average USD 109/bbl in 2022 leading to about a USD 9 bn upside to Iraq’s oil export revenue estimates (chart below).

However, there is also downside to Iraq’s oil export revenue estimates stemming from the inhibiting effects of higher oil and food prices on the world economy, and consequently lower global demand for oil. Magnifying these growth inhibiting effects would be the almost synchronized interest rate increases by central banks worldwide to combat the inflationary effects of the higher oil and food prices.

Conversely, the changing world order following the invasion of Ukraine, and the extent of and likely extended duration of the sanctions imposed on Russia, will alter the dynamics governing the relationship between world economic growth and global oil demand. In the short and medium terms, Western governments’ need to lessen dependence on Russian oil, and to ensure their energy security, would mitigate the negative effects on global oil demand from weaker world economic growth. All of which should lead to sustained period of higher oil prices as argued here in “Oil and the Iraqi Economy“, in which Iraq would be a major net beneficiary.

The passage of the supplementary budget bill in June, means that most of the USD 17 bn of increased spending would be concentrated in the second half of the year, which in the process would inject sizable liquidity into the economy in a relatively short period.

in turn, should lead to a re-acceleration in the year-over-year growth in the amount of money circulating in the economy (broad money). The timing of the supplementary budget’s passing came just as broad money growth is estimated to have slowed down significantly in May 2022, as the effects of the prior stimuli were exhausted after multiple months of sharp year over year increases. All of which underscore the centrality of government spending in the economy, acting as a super-efficient mechanism for transferring oil revenues into economic activities.

Political Stalemate or Manoeuvring

The passage of the supplementary budget bill would prolong the current impasse over government formation into the near future, contributing to the political uncertainty following the surprising results of the October 2021 parliamentary elections as discussed in “Continued Momentum“.

Increasing the political uncertainty, in the second week of June, the largest parliamentary bloc, and the apparent winner of the 2021 elections – the Sadrist Movement – resigned its seats in parliament in protest over the 10-month impasse over government formation.

This was seen as an opportunity for the apparent loser in the election – the Fateh Alliance – to control parliament and ultimately government formation, however emerging internal conflicts within the alliance seems to be preventing this. Nevertheless, these developments, as dramatic as they might appear to be on the surface, could be part of the continued political manoeuvring of a very tortuous government formation process.

This line of reasoning is rooted in the curious timing of the resignations immediately following the passage of the supplementary budget bill, which was championed by the resigning Sadrist Movement; and its passage in parliament was assured due to the large parliamentary block it commanded, before its resignation, with its partners.

It seems that the continuation of the status-quo, despite the continued political uncertainty, would be a preferred solution for all political parties, as it would preserve the country’s ethno-sectarian parties’ share of the state’s resources achieved in the 2018 elections. While it’s unclear if the status quo would continue for a few more weeks or months, or how it would the impasse over government formation be resolved; yet it’s clear that the compromise over the passage of the supplementary budget bill would keep the wheels of government spending turning, and with that the lifeblood of the economy.

Conclusion

The market’s benign response to the unexpected political developments in the month, and its continued positive reaction to the passage of the supplementary budget bill, supports the argument made above. Moreover, the market’s action is similar to that following the late adoption of the 2021 budget in April 2021 – which at the time led to a continuation of its rally as discussed here in April.

While the political uncertainty would continue to dampen foreign interest in Iraq’s equity market until the government’s formation a few months later, Iraq’s value proposition is compelling as its economy is a huge beneficiary of the high crude oil price environment. And its equity market is in the very early stages of emerging from a multi-year bear market, and as such its risk-reward profile is very attractive against most global markets.

Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali’s full report in pdf format.

Mr Tabaqchali (@AMTabaqchali) is the Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years’ experience in US and MENA markets. He is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), and a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is also a board member of Capital Investments, the investment banking arm of Capital Bank in Jordan.
LINK

Tivon » July 7th, 2022

Thank you for posting this Clare. This is what I came for. What a Article. I read this with a big smile. Which further supports my line of thinking in everything I have said over the past few months regarding the EFSL.

This is iron clad air tight information. Especially when they mentioned the resignations once the EFSL was passed, voted, and published. Those were the proxies who seen the writing on the wall. Not to mention they reaffirmed the fact that the ESFL will prolong the powers of Al-Kazemi.

The only reason they are trying to form the GOI is to take the powers away from Al-Kazemi that he has gained even more so in the EFSL.

Which is why Maliki is trying to win over the citizens by promising something he has no authority to do when it comes to reducing the price of the USD in the 2022 Budget that literally requires a seated government to even think about trying to pass let alone actually open it.

Which would take the citizens into November or December before the thing is even open. But now that the EFSL is in the Gazette Al-Kazemi knows he can provide purchasing power since his cabinet now has the Oil & Gas Law. Which the Citizens Entitlements are intertwined into the EFSL.

This is why I will continue to say that Al-Kazemi is going to exercise his “Emergency Powers” and give the citizens what they want without waiting on anything bit the next legislative session to serve them their dues that are owed to them and the ministries.

Mazar M. Saleh stated as such just days ago which is why the government couldn’t challenge the EFSL because of the paragraphs in it are mandatory obligations. Foreign interest in Iraq is something that will always be there. How many times have the IMF request Iraq to address the exchange rate?

Because even if they vote on a new GOI it will still take a few months to officially form one. Al-Kazemi will not wait on this because the emergency law requires him to address everything affecting the citizens independently of what is happening with the political impasse.

They literally said the government has the wherewithal to fund the supplementary budget ie (EFSL) and still build a substantial budget surplus that it, or a future government, can utilise to continue pursuing expansionary budgets. What more do you want?

They are spelling it out that there is a current government seated now. And what they do today another future government can pick up on once it is formed. Sounds like a plan to me.

Didn’t they say about a month ago that the EFSL Stabilizes All Contracts & Procedures? Here you see it again in regards to the broader market. IMO

Popeye7 » July 7th, 2022

Imo, and just to set the record straight on this. the CBI does not have to wait on the next legislative session to actually change the rate of the dinar?… It would seem to me that in order for this supplemental food budget law to be be effective, the rate would have to change first?… Which is what the citizens are waiting for because their purchasing power is essentially very poor at the moment leading into this holiday period of Eid…

This would help the shops, and business’s within Iraq if change were to occur before this holiday period begins on the 9th (this Saturday)…. After the holiday, once the next session of government proceeds, the monies from this ESFL will be divvied out with the brand new rate already enforced?…

I am asking because it would seem the rate would have to go first before ESFL is fully implemented… Imo… Thanks MM, Tivon, Clare, and all who are giving info, and their own personal insight in this…    

Source: Dinar Recaps


Samson » July 7th, 2022

Al-Atabi: 3 Files In The Next Government’s Priorities, The Most Prominent Of Which Is Dealing With The Exchange Rate

6th July, 2022

The leader in the coordination framework, Turki Al-Atabi, confirmed, on Wednesday, that 3 files are among the priorities of the upcoming government, the most prominent of which is dealing with the exchange rate.

Al-Otabi said in an interview with Al-Information, that “3 important files are among the priorities of the next government, which are the removal of the US forces, the return of the dollar exchange rate, and the organization of the national economy file in a way that reduces the fluctuations of the global markets for the sale of oil and its direct impact on the budget.”

Al-Otbi added, “The features of forming the government will be more clear after the end of the Eid al-Adha holiday, stressing that the political consensus will resolve all complications and will push all forces towards a broader participation in the next government.” He pointed out that “from 4-6 candidates so far in the scene for the post of prime minister, but its resolution will be directly after the end of the Eid holiday.”

The coordination framework is leading an accelerated political movement for the good formation of the next government.”  LINK

The Governor of Nineveh announces the launch of the 1000 job grades within the emergency support law

07/07/2022 16:45:44

Nineveh Governor Najm Al-Jubouri announced today, Thursday, the launch of the 1,000 job grades within the Emergency Support Law for Food Security and Development.

Al-Jubouri said in a statement that {Euphrates News} received a copy of it, that: “Based on the provisions of Article (15) of the Law on Emergency Support for Food Security and Development, which includes ((contracting with holders of bachelor’s degrees and diplomas and for all specializations (except for the medical and nursing group, as their appointment is central)) to work in the governorate departments and its local administrations at the rate of (1,000) thousand contractors for each governorate for a period of three years and a monthly salary of (300,000) three hundred thousand dinars for the purposes of training and development)).

He referred to the “conditions of submission, which consist of:

* To be a resident of Nineveh Governorate, according to the residence card issued by Nineveh Governorate

*Must have a bachelor’s degree or diploma

* To pledge not to be previously appointed to any government agency

* Not to have been convicted of a misdemeanor or felony involving moral turpitude

* Not to be punished by the penalty of dismissal from office

* He must undertake the authenticity of the documents he submits

* The job applicant must verify the information before the completion of the electronic application process, as it is not possible to re-apply again.

Al-Jubouri added, “The controls include a percentage (10%) of contracting for those who are primarily the families of the martyrs, political prisoners, martyrs of the popular crowd, victims of terrorism, war operations and military mistakes, and according to the percentage established in the laws in force for the mentioned segments, and a percentage (5%) for contracting with people with needs is determined and (5%) for contracting with components.”

He noted that “adopting the criteria listed below to identify candidates for contracting in the aforementioned jobs

Graduation rate: excellent (25), very good (20), good (15), average (10), acceptable (5).

Year of Graduation: One degree is awarded for each year of graduation, with no more than (5) degrees.

Marital Status:

Unmarried, widowed, divorced, and has children (10) degrees.

Married, the husband is not appointed and he has no children (5) degrees.

Al-Jubouri concluded, “Not granting the unmarried one does not mean excluding him from the competition,” calling for “not to approve any submission via any link before the issuance of this announcement.”  LINK

The Food Security Law .. Does it guarantee all the financial surpluses achieved for Iraq?

7th July, 2022

Today, Thursday, the economic expert, Manar Al-Obaidi, commented on the fact that all financial surpluses go to finance the provisions of the Food Security Law.

Al-Obaidi said, to (Baghdad Today), that “the information that talks about the disappearance of the financial surpluses that were achieved from the rise in oil prices since the beginning of the year to finance the paragraphs of the Food Security Law is absolutely incorrect, so it is not possible to spend all of this surplus in one time.”

And he indicated that “it is not a necessity or a condition that Iraq spends all the allocated matters within the provisions of the Food Security Law,” explaining that “even the public budgets do not spend all the funds allocated in them, and a lot of unspent funds remain for several reasons.”

And he added, “This matter will apply to the provisions of the Food Security Law, and that is why not all the financial surpluses of the past months will go to finance the provisions of the law.”

It is noteworthy that the House of Representatives voted on the eighth of last month on the law of emergency support for food security in the presence of 273 deputies.   LINK

The End Of The Year… An Expert Expects Iraq’s Oil Revenues To Reach 125 Billion Dollars

6th July, 2022

Economist Nabil Jabbar expected, on Wednesday, that Iraq’s financial revenues from oil until the end of this year will reach more than 125 billion dollars, which represents nearly 200% of the average revenue for previous years, while stressing that the revenues achieved during the past months are historic.

Jabbar said in an interview with the “Information” agency, “The revenues achieved during the past months are historical over the entire lifespan of the Iraqi state since 1920,” noting that “the revenues achieved during 6 months from oil sales are approximately $62 billion, which is equivalent to an average of $62 billion in oil sales. full year revenue. 

He added, “Iraq has an opportunity for development by investing and employing these funds, at least for the funds generated for the next three years, during which economists expect the oil price boom to continue or improve.”

The economist explained, “It is expected that the revenue until the end of the year will be more than 125 billion dollars, which represents approximately 200% of the average revenue for previous years.”

Jabbar continued, saying: “Spending 40 and 50 years ago from oil revenues on infrastructure projects (bridges, roads and public buildings) is the real generation fund from which Iraqis benefited throughout that period.”

The Ministry of Oil had confirmed, earlier, that “the amount of crude oil exports amounted to (101) million (390) thousand and (662) barrels, with revenues amounting to (10) billion and (609) million and (252) thousand dollars.   LINK

Because of the difficult financial conditions that citizens are experiencing… deflation invades Iraqi markets with the approach of Eid al-Adha

7th July, 2022

Iraqi economists confirmed that the economic crises that hit the country made this holiday not like the previous ones due to the state of deflation and the lack of financial liquidity.

A number of them indicated that the Iraqi market these days leading up to Eid al-Adha suffers a noticeable stagnation due to the economic crisis, and the deterioration of the financial conditions of citizens with the absence of the state’s financial budget for 2022.

They explained that the Iraqi markets and commercial centers witnessed in previous years a great momentum by citizens in shopping during the days leading up to Eid al-Adha are to buy clothes, prepare food for sweets and more.

Economic analyst Abdul Rahman Al-Dulaimi said that the economic and social conditions and the high cost of living, as a result of the high exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, contributed to a decrease in the purchasing power of many segments of society, in the face of a continuous stagnation in local markets since the beginning of the current year 2022.

Official figures of the Iraqi Ministry of Planning indicate, that the poverty rate in Iraq exceeded 22.5 percent.  LINK

The Independent: India’s switch to Russian oil presents a real challenge to Iraq and Saudi Arabia

7th July, 2022

India’s imports of crude oil from Russia rose to 21% in June, making Moscow India’s second largest oil supplier, according to figures provided by data and analytics firm Kpler to The Independent. As of 2021, Russia was India’s tenth largest oil supplier

Avoided by many traditional European buyers after its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s sales of cheap crude oil to India increased from zero in January and February to a record 950,000 barrels per day in June, as Delhi slipped back into recession. In June, Iraq sold about 1 million barrels per day to India, representing a marginal decrease in imports from Baghdad since May

Imports from Saudi Arabia decreased from 697,000 bpd in May to 686,000 bpd in June. With Kuwait, imports fell earlier this year with a rise of 297,000 barrels per day in February to 100,000 by April. They increased marginally to 233,000 barrels per day in June

The massive increase in Russian crude imports in the past two months means that “flows have declined from major suppliers in the Middle East – Iraq and Saudi Arabia – as well as from elsewhere,” says Matt Smith, senior oil analyst at Kpler. He adds that imports have reached a “historic level” because they are the highest since the company’s records began in 2013

Due to the post-pandemic recovery, India’s overall demand for crude oil has swelled by about 13 percent this year, compared to 2021. India is a major refining hub, importing crude and exporting clean products such as gasoline and diesel. Thus, exports of clean products are also up – by nearly nine per cent compared to 2021, making it a lucrative deal for Delhi

For India, the opportunity to buy cheap Russian oil remains a political balance with the West. Thomas Murphy, lead analyst for South Asia security and political risks at Dragonfly, tells The Independent but he notes that the deal could lead to some political downsides in the long run as India is expected to face “increasing criticism and diplomatic pressure from both the United States and Europe” for not imposing sanctions or holding Russia accountable for human rights abuses in Ukraine even as the conflict has continued for more than four months

This major shift in the Indian oil market is expected to cause unease among the South Asian nation’s allies, who have economic and trade ties that date back centuries. Harsh V Pant, professor of international relations at King’s College London, tells The Independent that the Middle East will have to think carefully about its long-term strategy if its biggest buyers, India and China, gradually stop relying on them

For many Middle Eastern countries, the sale of oil is their biggest income. Approximately 65 percent of the world’s oil reserves are located in the Middle East

Bilateral trade between India and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries – including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – exceeded $150 billion (£126 billion) in the fiscal year ending March 2022 but India is making the most of discounted Russian oil, he says, because it has created incentives to reach other buyers while the Middle East has significantly inflated prices during the energy crisis

“I don’t think the Middle East is going to be seen as a long-term strategic challenge, but it does have temporary implications for the Middle East…If you have China and India, which are the two biggest oil importers in the Middle East, and take advantage of the Russian affluence, which may be temporary, but it does exist, and one does not even know how long the war will last.

He says that the question of whether Russia will be able to entice these Asian countries with deep discount deals when Europe completely stops buying oil from it by the end of the year will determine long-term strategies. Because he adds, just offering big discounts isn’t viable in the long run

“The Middle East has to make sure if they have to continue down this path or there is a need for a recalibration in the oil markets,” he says, adding that India is an important market for the Middle East, and for Delhi, reasonable prices are a priority  LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps

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