“The Likely Outlook” – Sun. AM-PM KTFA Thoughts, News w/ Tivon, MilitiaMan 7-10-22

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Samson » July 10th, 2022

More than 8 million barrels of oil exports from Iraq to America in a month

10th July, 2022

The US Energy Information Administration announced on Sunday that Iraq’s oil exports to America amounted to more than 8 million barrels last June.

The administration said in its schedule, seen by Shafak News Agency, that “Iraq exported 8.190 million barrels of crude oil to America during the month of June, at a rate of 273 thousand barrels per day, up from the month of May, in which Iraqi oil exports to America amounted to 9.114 million barrels and an average of 294,000 barrels per day.

He added, “Iraq exported crude oil to America during the first week of June at a rate of 555,000 barrels per day, while an average of 100,000 barrels per day was issued in the second week, and an average of 76 thousand barrels per day was exported in the third week,” noting that “the fourth week’s exports amounted to 362,000 barrels per day.

And the US Energy Information Administration stated, “Iraq jumped to fourth place in its exports to America during the past month after Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, and second in the Arab world after Saudi Arabia, whose exports to America reached 19 million, and 50 thousand barrels per day,” noting that “Canada came in It ranks first as the most oil-exporting country to America, followed by Mexico.  LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps


Samson » July 10th, 2022

The Central Bank : There is no future plan that includes changing the exchange rate

10th July, 2022

Sunday, the Central Bank confirmed that there is no justification for changing the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar, while indicating that the economic circumstance is the main criterion for changing the exchange rate.

The Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Ammar Khalaf, said in a statement to the Iraqi News Agency (INA): “The exchange rate at the present time – in our belief as a monetary authority – there is no justification for changing it,” explaining, that “changing the exchange rate remains within the monetary authority’s policy and according to circumstances.”

He pointed out that “during the years from 2004 until now, the exchange rate has changed more than once, depending on the circumstances, whether to increase or decrease.” 

He added, “The economic circumstance is the main ruler, and there is no future plan to change the exchange rate, whether after 3-5 years, and the economic conditions determine what is the appropriate decision that fits the time period at the time.”

He stressed, “The exchange rate is within the monetary policy and is the exclusive competence of the Central Bank, and when it sees that there is a necessity, it thinks about changing the exchange rate, but currently there is no justification or need to modify it,” explaining, that “monetary policy, one of its advantages is flexibility in general and not it is good to change the exchange rate quickly because it confuses the markets and weakens the economy.”  LINK

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The Central Bank: There is no future plan that includes changing the exchange rate LINK

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Tivon » July 10th, 2022

Guys, ask yourself. Why is he trying so hard to convince the citizens of this personal notion of his? This guy is on a campaign. How do you say  that there is no justification.

When the Oil & Gas Law is contingent upon the USD price reduction so the citizens can receive their monthly allotments according to the Constitution? This guy is willing to break the law with his baseless theory that goes against commonsense, reality, and legal articles that justifies the rate change.

 Not your opinion. That’s more than enough of a reason.

The Citizens Entitlements is apart of the EFSL. This guy is directly going against PM  Al-Kazemi. How do you say the economic circumstance is the main ruler as to what can determine the exchange rate when the citizens are suffering from inflation? Isn’t that an economic crisis?

They literally can’t afford nothing for the holiday festivities. They Can’t pay rent. But you know he is definitely one of these guys in the Maliki camp. Not to mention the oil prices. This high demand will not last. Citigroup warned of that. Do you see how he is double speaking.

How do you say in the same breath the monetary policy is flexible but if you change the rate it confuses the markets? So you are saying it’s not flexible then? It can’t be both at the same time my guy. You need to pick one because how you are saying it conflicts the two.

It’s like he’s talking within a bubble where what he says vs what actually is are two different scenarios that do not coexist in the same environment. The guy has no legs here. Nothing solid has been said.

Al-Kazemi is going with the law and constitution. Not your personal beliefs or feelings about the situation. Pipe down.

I remember him stating this back in February that he won’t change the rate. He’s literally he’ll bent on keeping the citizens poor. Read the below statement and tell me the two agendas don’t conflict.  No wonder the citizens were surprised when he stated this a week ago. It made no sense. 

A parliamentary bloc moves to lower the dollar exchange rate

4th July, 2022

Today, Monday, Jawad Al-Ghazali, a member of the State of Law coalition, revealed a move by his bloc to reduce the dollar exchange rate. Al-Ghazali told “Mawazine News”, “The lawmakers have collected their signatures regarding reconsidering or modifying the dollar exchange rate to its previous era.” He explained, “This step (comes) due to the rise in commodity prices in the markets and the harm of citizens, and this step will be towards a gradual reduction of the exchange rate, not completely, so that it will be dealt with smoothly without losses.” End quote.

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Sir » July 10th, 2022

IMO-He is stating at this time! (Everything will be revealed soon) We here in America see just how much our Fed notes are worth today (-98%). The Federal note is dead for all intensive purposes, it’s just in the wake stages and will be buried soon. Again I say be patient and stay in prayer, it’s the most important thing we can do to help bring this to an end. We are so close you can smell the wine but we can’t taste it just yet, but soon we will feast like never before in history. These next few weeks will unveil corruption on a world scale, silent war no more! IMO

Tivon » July 10th, 2022

Now we know they would not be able to gradually reduce the price as it will not make the IQD attractive in supply & demand from the onset and will deter the citizens from turning in the three zero notes. And it also goes against Article 8.

But something is to take note of here is that the Deputy Governor is not working in conjunction with the government. As you can see from his statements goes against the overall purpose of creating the EFSL to begin with.

So we have to ask why do these incongruent plans of action conflict with one another?

I can understand if the Ammar Khalaf was consulting with the different political camps and everyone in the meeting from Al-Kazemi cabinets to the State of Law came to one solid conclusion on the USD matter. But no, that’s not the case at all.

Which makes this all the more weird. Guys we must be really close because this guy only started saying this, this year.

I can’t find him on record at any other time or year.  Here’s another statement below. IMO

Quote: Representative Uday Awad announced that he had collected the signatures of more than 100 deputies to reduce the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Iraqi dinar. Awad stated that based on Article (61-Seventh-C) of the Iraqi constitution and Article (56) of the internal system, please include the issue of reducing the price of the dollar in the earliest possible session, according to constitutional contexts, and because of the economic repercussions taking place in the country and the collapse of the currency and its impact on the Iraqi citizen. In turn, the Parliamentary Finance Committee denied what was recently reported about Parliament’s efforts to restore the dollar’s exchange rate to its previous state.

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DallasDude » July 10th, 2022

Thanks for your thoughts Tivon..they should be back in session by the end of the week and hopefully by the end of the month the citizens will have their entitlements and we will have a new exchange rate..there may not be justification to change the rate today or this week but when parliament resumes their session all bets are off..

Tivon » July 10th, 2022

Guys this is how I knew the Budget 2022 was dead in the water. Which by default will have Al-Kazemi run the affairs of the country for the remainder of the year.

Jamal Cougar already admitted that there’s simply not enough time to prepare a general budget. And other political blocs are already talking about skipping this year entirely and focusing on the 2023 budget. Which I think is going to prompt Al-Kazemi to be really bold and blunt with what he wants to do with the EFSL.

Blitz Play coming up.

A technical expert stated….The supplementary budget bill, officially called the “Emergency Food Security Support” bill, has its origins in demands by parliament for extra spending measures in response to public anger over the increased cost of living, and to public pressure for the government to translate the sharply rising oil revenues into public expenditures.

So Ammar Khalaf there’s your ruler Deputy Governor. Sense this is the deciding factor on changing the rate. What’s your next excuse? IMO

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Today, Thursday, the economic expert, Manar Al-Obaidi, commented on the fact that all financial surpluses go to finance the provisions of the Food Security Law.

Al-Obaidi said, to (Baghdad Today), that “the information that talks about the disappearance of the financial surpluses that were achieved from the rise in oil prices since the beginning of the year to finance the paragraphs of the Food Security Law is absolutely incorrect, so it is not possible to spend all of this surplus in one time.”

And he indicated that “it is not a necessity or a condition that Iraq spends all the allocated matters within the provisions of the Food Security Law,” explaining that “even the public budgets do not spend all the funds allocated in them, and a lot of unspent funds remain for several reasons.”

Source: Dinar Recaps


The Central Bank : There is no future plan that includes changing the exchange rate   LINK

MilitiaMan » July 10th, 2022

The deputy governor has stated what appears to be this same propaganda on more than one instance this month. Firstly, he is not the CBI Governor, however,  mind you he does work for the bank but, he is not the Ruler.

Secondly, there is by far way to many good things going on to not change the exchange rate. For crying out loud they have every intention to bring purchase power to the citizens. They have the AYSCUDA system at the borders and have garnered 10 year historic high revenue increase from the customs fees, taxes, tariffs, etc…

The citizens know this it was headline news.

The EFSL was passed by the present government for the citizens, again headline news. Also, lets not forget the CBI Governor in England offering gifts of currency to the Central Bank of England. The photos represent sovereignty.. Not a program rate..

Why in the world would the CBI give the CBE more worthless currency. They already have trillions.. lol The new ATMS have new technology to for recycling cash and at varied exchange rates for multiple currencies. They even tell us about coins as an educational bit. There is not need for coins at a program rate.

Take note the World Bank and the IMF have completed and or concluded their mission. The UST, WB, the IMF, the EU, etc., all are in the recent news for to support Iraq in the all reforms, security, economics, energy, etc..

So, with the below I believe this piece above is smoke.. Lets see what they do next.

The indicators are large that are still on track to make an exchange rate change. Kahdimi has said it himself.. imo.. Sadr too, has the citizens on the agenda. He will be out in force for a devotional this next week on Friday…

So to suggest that there will not be an exchange rate change is goes against the below.. imo ~ MM

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The Governor of the Central Bank promises to support the banks and overcome the difficulties they face   LINK

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The Central Bank of Iraq’s gold reserves rise

27th June, 2022

Today, Monday, the Central Bank of Iraq announced that Iraq has advanced ten ranks in the table of the most countries in gold reserves, bringing its total possessions to (130.39) tons, ranked thirty in the world and fourth in the Arab world.

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The financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, surprised the Iraqis about the possibility of changing and reducing the exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar.
 
He noted that “the first limit according to commodity prices and the market, and at that time the central bank will defend the stability of prices according to the reserve, which is the highest in its history now, and we have an encouraging surplus for the end of the year from 8 to 10 percent.” He stressed, “If prices and financial policies fail to defend the livelihood of the poor and social protection salaries, the Central Bank will intervene by raising the purchasing power of the Central Bank through its foreign reserves

LINK

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In this regard, a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Nermin Maarouf, confirmed that “returning the dollar exchange rate to its previous rate is one of the prerogatives of the Central Bank and not the powers of either the federal government or the House of Representatives.” She added that “there are attempts by members of the House of Representatives and the Ministry of Finance to return the dollar exchange rate to its old level,” noting that “the actions of the two sides complement each other, but the exchange rate against currencies and changing it is exclusively the prerogative of the Central Bank.”    LINK

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“The ” caretaker government “ (contextual only per SJC)  has the right to dispose of the surplus of the 2021 budget, amounting to 14 billion dollars, which is supposed to be used to raise the value of the dinar and increase the balance of hard currency.”   LINK

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We are proud to be the first financial institution in Iraq to deploy the new ATM technology and look forward to providing innovative services to our customers.”   LINK

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We are proud to be the first to launch modern teller technology in Iraq, and we are constantly looking to provide the latest services to our customers. (

FOR A PROGRAM RATE???!!!-F26

Modern money changers have received great interest from the bank’s customers, and we are sure that the  launch of cash deposit services in Automated teller machines (ATMs) in the near future will enable the bank to raise the level of services provided to our customers, and to deal with cash feeding with high efficiency

ATM cash deposit feature is an essential part of Diebold Nixdorff’s modern design. Habib Hanna, director of the Middle East region at Diebold Nixdorff, said, “I am very pleased to choose Kartas Islamic Bank for the new ATMs from our company. The bank can use these ATMs to provide many advanced services to its customers   LINK
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Maysani issues a book documenting Iraqi stamps and coins   LINK

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The Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq participates in the closing meeting of the World Bank mission
https://cbi.iq/news/view/2005

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IMF Staff Concludes Staff Visit to Iraq    LINK

Samson » July 10th, 2022

Iraqis hold their breath, waiting for Friday al-Sadr: a new government or a change in the rules of the game

10th July, 2022

The developments of the situation in Iraq indicate that the political process is heading towards early elections and the preservation of Mustafa Al-Kazemi’s government for another year, while the parties to the “coordinating framework” that intensifies its meetings despite the differences between its ranks confirmed that the formation of the government and the end of negotiations will be announced after the Eid holiday. Al-Adha.

The Iraqi political analyst, Muhammad Ali Al-Hakim, stressed that any government born without the “Sadr movement” will be “lame,” noting that “the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement from parliament put the coordination framework in a critical situation, so the Sadrist movement cannot exit without a pre-prepared scenario.”

In statements, Al-Hakim expected that the next few days would be full of surprises, and that the next Friday prayer would be a clear message and challenge to the “coordination framework.”

On the other hand, the “coordinating framework” is expected to announce after the Eid al-Adha holiday the end of political talks to form the new government.

Deputy Zainab al-Moussawi, a member of the Coordination Framework, said that after the Eid, the end of the talks to form the new government would be announced, stressing that the names proposed to take over the prime minister’s office are important.  She pointed out that “there is no scenario to go to new elections, as discussions are in full swing within the coordination framework and with some other blocs to come up with a new formula that crosses Iraq to safety.”    LINK

MilitiaMan » July 10th, 2022

I will bet there will be many fronts this next week that could be very surprising. Maybe even see the dissolution of parliament. EFSL gave “Necessary Powers” to Kahdimi and the White papers were said to be the corner stone if you will from the results of the World Bank and IMF mission in Iraq. The CBI knows that full well and has likely calculated it, as would Sadr too, Kahdimi, Saleh, Allawi, etc. Everyone in the need to know realm.. Knows what to expect now, surprises… lol  imo~ MM

Samson » July 10th, 2022

Kurdish politician: The people have run out of patience with the high cost of living and will stage major demonstrations

10th July, 2022

A member of the Kurdistan Regional Parliament, Diyari Anwar, confirmed on Sunday that the Kurdish people have run out of patience with the bad economic conditions in the region.

Anwar said in a statement to “Al-Maalouma” that “raising the price of fuel to record rates that exceeded the reasonable limits is a challenge to the people.”

He added that “the delay in the distribution of salaries, as well as the presence of thousands of unemployed people, and the high rates of poverty, all portend major demonstrations against the poor conditions borne by the ruling parties.”

From time to time hundreds of motorists demonstrate in Sulaymaniyah to protest against the increase in fuel prices.    LINK

MilitiaMan » July 10th, 2022

The heat is on. More pressure… With demonstrations starting and Sadr going out next Friday in devotionals and marching.. Looks like the timing is coming to a cross road.. Sadr wants the Iraqis to get purchase power and legitimacy. imo ~ MM

Samson » July 10th, 2022

The Iraqi Stock Exchange lacks “credibility”… How does it differ from the world’s stock exchanges?

10th July, 2022

The economic expert, Nasser Al-Kinani, said today, Sunday, that the Iraqi stock market has lost its credibility among traders due to the volatility of the political situation.

Al-Kinani said, to (Baghdad Today), that “the Iraqi stock market has lost its credibility among traders due to the fluctuation of the political situation,” wondering, “if the economy has stopped, how will it be productive?” He added, “The first shareholders who bought the stock at a value of one dinar after the closure should gradually rise, but the situation in Iraq is different from what is in the countries of the world.”

Al-Kinani continued, “There are those who bought shares in the year 90’s worth fifty thousand dinars, and when the company was reviewed, it was found that the value of the share is five dinars now.”

Economists and specialists demanded to expand the work of the Iraqi Stock Exchange, and to attract additional companies to offer their shares to investors, in proportion to the size of the Iraqi economy, especially since the companies listed within the market, their number is estimated at 100, which does not fully reflect the size of the country’s economy.

And the Iraq Stock Exchange, located in the capital, Baghdad, and was established in June 2004, and operates under the supervision of the Iraqi Securities Commission, an independent body that was established along the lines of the American Securities and Exchange Commission.

Specialists believe that the Iraqi Stock Exchange – the Iraqi Stock Exchange – is not commensurate with the size of Iraq, the trade balance and the national income, stressing the importance of amending the law of the Securities and Companies Commission to expand the work of the Iraqi financial market.

In the period prior to the change of the previous regime in 2003, the current market was called the “Baghdad Stock Exchange”, which was managed by the Iraqi Ministry of Finance, but now it is a self-regulatory body, and as of 2005 the Iraqi Stock Exchange became the only stock exchange in Iraq.

When it opened in 2004, there were only 15 companies listed in the market, but now 103 Iraqi joint stock companies are listed, representing sectors; Banking, telecommunications, industry, agriculture, insurance, financial investment, tourism and hotels.    LINK

MilitiaMan » July 10th, 2022

Once they adjust the IQD to international standards (commensurate with size), the shares should explode!! imo.. ~ MM

Independent Deputy: We expect Biden to intervene to solve the political crisis in Iraq   LINK

Regardless of who is saying it or not. The likely outlook is for the parliament to be dissolved imo.. The Supreme Judicial Council has talked / written on the matter and the EFSL is showing that what was written is being followed.. Just as we see the HCL being talked about with respect to the Kurds.. imo Things are looking very good now..  ~ MM

Warnings of upcoming protests… Is there a plan to expedite the formation of the government?  LINK

PM Kadhimi and Al-Sadr are looking to be strongly supported for the future… All bodes well for us.. imo.. Lets look for this next week surprises… The constitution being violated by not seating the Government is why “Necessary Powers” in the EFSL 33 page document.. Keep in mind the Supreme Judicial Council has written about the topic of what a caretaker government is and is not.The SJC alos spoke of the dissolution of parliament in emergency time frames, well being outside the constition as noted above, this means Kahdimii is set for to do day to day business and if it affects the citizens needs, get it done.. imo !!! ~ MM

Source: Dinar Recaps

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