“3rd Door” – Sat. AM-PM KTFA Thoughts, News w/ Tivon, MilitiaMan 8-6-22

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KTFA

Samson » August 6th, 2022

Brent prices fell 11% in a week, near $ 95 a barrel

6th August, 2022

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday’s session, to offset some of this week’s losses, due to data on strong US job growth, but ended the week at its lowest level since February due to concerns that the recession could affect demand for fuel

Brent crude futures rose 80 cents to $94.92 a barrel, down 11% from last Friday’s settlement. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose 47 cents to $89.01, down 8% in a week

The US Department of Labor said that job growth in the United States unexpectedly rose in July, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 528,000, the largest increase since February, according to Reuters

This is strong economic data that supports the rise of the oil market,” said Bob Yoger, director of the Energy Futures Department at Mizuho

Fears of a recession intensified after the Bank of England warned on Thursday of a prolonged recession after it made its largest interest rate hike since 1995

The OPEC + group agreed this week to increase its target oil production by 100,000 barrels per day in September, but according to OPEC data, this is one of the smallest increases since the introduction of such quotas in 1982

Supply concerns are expected to escalate as winter approaches, as European Union sanctions banning Russian seaborne imports of crude and oil products are set to take effect on December 5  LINK

Kurdistan suspends official working hours on Monday

6th August, 2022

The Kurdistan Regional Government announced the suspension of official working hours next Monday, on the occasion of the tenth of Muharram. 

According to a statement issued today, about it and received by Shafak News Agency, the ministry has excluded health departments from this decision. 

The regional government suspends the official working hours on the tenth of Muharram every year.

LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps


Samson » August 6th, 2022

Next week..Erbil will host an international investment fair

6th August, 2022

The city of Erbil, the capital of Kurdistan Region, is scheduled to host an international investment exhibition next week.

The supervisor of the exhibition, Ribaz Darwish, told Shafaq News Agency, “The exhibition will be with the participation of dozens of international, Arab and local companies in the field of investment, and it will be held in the International Exhibition Hall in Erbil and will last for four days.”

Darwish added, “The exhibition aims to attract investment to the Kurdistan Region, and exchange investment experiences from foreign companies, in addition to introducing them to the labor market in Kurdistan.”   LINK

Billuke » August 6th, 2022

They can’t do this on a program rate.………………………  imo

DCDriver » August 6th, 2022

Dissolve parliament, hold early elections, seat a government, revalue currency IMO in that order.

Get1later » August 6th, 2022

The CBI HAS FULL CONTROL OF THE EXCHANGE RATE !!! 

They’ve already told the international world,  member banks and International Traders (in an article) they  MUST BE ON THEIR ELECTRONIC PLATFORM BY August 15th or lose out (The trains leaving the station) ??

That “Funky” Program Rate” their tied to …… WON’T WORK !! 

WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU?? 

The dissolution of the Government (WHOOPIE) !!! That’s a sideshow and a distraction at the moment (IMO)

GOI needs the rate before the budget

KAZEMI continues doing business as if it’s already done 

Iraq’s in the middle of a state of  emergency (see the EFSL). It’s in the Gazette, it’s law, it needs a new exchange rate to be implemented 

So what does ALL MEAN ???

The exchange rate will be adjusted WAY BEFORE the early elections and their budget’s solved !! 

That’s not an opinion ….. That’s being spelled out in Articles from the CBI and the GOI (not opinion pieces) 

Samson » August 6th, 2022

Iraq, Russia and Iran compete for oil exports to China

6th August, 2022

Russia and Iran’s presentation of offers to China and India and discounts on crude oil has led to growing concerns about the future of Iraqi oil exports, on which 95% of its budget depends.

Previous reports had suggested that Iraq would be one of the biggest losers in these speculations, with the decline in demand for Iraqi oil of all kinds, after China and India were among the largest buyers of it, while others believe that this opens new markets that increase Iraq’s profits.

Iraq competition

The economist, Dr. Ahmed Saddam, says that it is natural that Russia’s decision to reduce the price of a barrel of oil exported to India and China will lead to a change in the direction of demand, which rose by 15.5% from Russia, in return for a decrease in the level of oil imports from Iraq by 10.5%, as the Iranian decision to reduce came within limits 10 dollars above the world price to constitute a strong competitor to Iraq.

Saddam indicated that this change in the level of demand does not mean abandoning the rest of the oil markets, especially the Iraqi market, which is the second source of India after Saudi Arabia, and despite the reduction in oil prices, the share imported from Russia represents only 19% of the total Indian demand estimated at about 5 Millions of barrels per day, as India imports approximately 950,000 barrels per day from Russia, and China imports 860,000 barrels per day and 700,000 barrels per day from Iran.

Saddam adds that according to these circumstances, Iraq has no other choice but to diversify its export outlets, especially towards the European and American continents, as it is estimated that oil exports to the United States increased by 11% as a result. He believes that Iraq’s situation before and after the Ukrainian crisis is still good despite the decline in Asian demand for Iraq’s oil, but the important point in this regard – according to Saddam – is that even with the price reduction by Russia, there will remain technical and economic obstacles, foremost of which is the length of distance and time. This limits the number of barrels of oil imported from Russia, and this means that the decrease in Iraq’s share of oil exports to China and India will not be significant.

Decline factors

For his part, economist Dr. Medhat Kazem Al-Quraishi believes that oil prices in general initially rose due to the embargo on Russia, then their prices fell due to the economic recession in Europe and the world.

Al-Quraishi notes, according to Al Jazeera Net, that the oil markets are still unstable due to the presence of negative and positive factors influencing, and therefore it is not possible to predict what will happen to the oil market related to the war in Ukraine and its repercussions. He points out that competition between producers leads to lower prices, as well as US pressure on OPEC, which may leave a small impact, despite Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s rejection of the pressures of US President Joe Biden.

Upcoming crisis

In turn, Professor of Economics, Dr. Abdul Rahman Al-Mashhadani warns of a new crisis, so we should not be optimistic about the rise in current oil prices as they are not real, and therefore the Iraqi government should work within reasonable limits.  LINK

Sadrist’s deputy submits a request to Al-Halbousi to hold an extraordinary session to dissolve parliament

6th August, 2022

A representative of the Sadrist movement, Burhan Al-Maamouri, submitted a request to Parliament Speaker Muhammad Al-Halbousi regarding the dissolution of Parliament.

Al-Maamouri, the only Sadrist MP who did not resign from parliament, demanded that Al-Halbousi hold an emergency session to dissolve parliament and set a date for early elections.

Translation ……

Honorable Speaker of the House of Representatives Subject / Dissolution of the House of Representatives, Greetings:

According to the provisions of Article (64) of the Constitution, which states:

First, the House of Representatives is dissolved by an absolute majority of its members based on a request from one-third of its members. 

In view of the failure of the House of Representatives to elect a President of the Republic based on the provisions of Article (70) of the Constitution and its failure to implement its constitutional obligations, please kindly approve the dissolution of the House of Representatives and hold an extraordinary session of the Council for this purpose based on the provisions of Article (58) of the Constitution and setting a date for early elections. 

We enclose a list of the names of the deputies supporting and signatories to the request. Thank you very much. The accompaniments / – A list of the names of the deputies who signed and supported the request.  LINK

Clare » August 6th, 2022

BOOM!!! ……….THANK YOU SAMSON!

Samson » August 6th, 2022

Is it possible to dissolve parliament ?

5th August, 2022 by Dr. Bilal Khalifa

There has been talk these days about another solution that cuts the way to the political stalemate, which is to go to a second election. The weights of the political blocs may change, and consequently, alliances may change and lead to the possibility of forming a new government. It must be remembered that the Al-Kazemi government, when it was formed, the purpose of that government was to hold early elections.

The scenario of dissolving Parliament and rerunning the elections faces obstacles, including:

1- The Federal Court, when it rejected the framework’s appeal (Monday, December 27, 2021) regarding the illegality of the elections, but the Federal Supreme Court at the same time recommended two points, namely:

A- Legislating a new election law

B – Not using electronic counting and sorting, and here lies the problem, which is that the current government is the caretaker of daily affairs, and it does not have the constitutional legitimacy for that, according to Article (64-second) and according to the Federal Supreme Court’s decision No. 121 / Federal / 2022, but after enacting a law Food security, despite its violation of the Constitution, it became possible to legislate a law during the period of a caretaker government, despite that it is unconstitutional.

2 – Some large blocs, as well as some small ones, who are independents, will not accept going to the second elections because of the possibility that their seats will be reduced.

3 – The dissolution of Parliament is the step that must precede going to elections, and this paragraph was referred to in Article 64 of the Constitution, where it clarifies that the period shall be a maximum of sixty days. Elections must take place after the Parliament is dissolved.

But the dissolution of Parliament will face several obstacles, including:

1 – The ways to dissolve Parliament are in two ways defined by the constitution in Article 64 of it, and in two ways:

First: The Parliament is dissolved by an absolute majority of the number of its members, at the request of one-third of its members, or a request from the Prime Minister and with the approval of the Prime Minister Republic, and the Council may not be dissolved during the period of questioning the Prime Minister.

Second: The President of the Republic, upon dissolving the House of Representatives, shall call for general elections in the country within a maximum period of sixty days from the date of the dissolution, and the Council of Ministers in this case is considered resigned and continues to run daily affairs. And that the two paths end with the parliament’s vote on it by an absolute majority, meaning that the ball is in the range of the members of the House of Representatives and it is the final decision-maker in the matter.

2 – The dissolution of the House of Representatives means that the government will turn into a daily caretaker government devoid of any powers, but how if it is a caretaker government.

3 – The second way to dissolve Parliament is a call from the President of the Republic to dissolve Parliament, how if the President of the Republic is the end of powers, Article 72 of the Constitution shows that the President of the Republic ends his term at the end of the Parliament, i.e. when the House of Representatives is dissolved and someone else comes after the first session, then his validity ends. Everyone knows that the first session was months ago, and therefore the President of the Republic is by virtue of the expired powers.

4 – The first way requires the process of convening a session of the Iraqi parliament, and then submitting a proposal to dissolve parliament to the presidency of the council and vote on it, but this process must be evacuating the building and its surroundings from the demonstrators, otherwise how can the deputies come amid a building full of demonstrators.

5 – The election process requires large funds. In the last elections, the government cost an amount of about 300 million US dollars, i.e. 450 billion dinars, or nearly half a trillion dinars, but here the question arises, from where this amount is allocated, and this is not possible because:

A – The current government is a caretaker government and does not have the authority to transfer or any authority to control funds except in matters appropriate to the situation.

B – We need a general budget to allocate money to the election process, and therefore, before going to the elections, the government must be formed and the federal budget law is enacted.

C – Legislating a law for elections, and this would be unconstitutional and that any appeal by the deputies will be rejected because the law will include financial aspects, and despite that it also needs Parliament to return to its work and the demonstrators to leave.
6 – Going to elections will be in two ways:

A – the use of the old law, and this will be contrary to the decision of the Federal Supreme Court

B – the enactment of a new law and this is not possible and we talked about it above and it is also contrary to the decision of the Federal Supreme Court, and the new legislation needs that Parliament exercises Duty for several months until this law is enacted.

The result is that the second elections, which some may call for, are difficult to hold because they violate the decisions issued by the Federal Supreme Court, which are irrelevant and binding on all (Article 94) of the Constitution. Likewise, the constitution made the government a caretaker, so how is it now a caretaker government?

The solution is to form a government whose most important duty is to hold early elections, and since the preparations take several months, a government with full authority can legislate the budget law and serve the people until elections are held and turn it into a caretaker government as well. But if the parliament is dissolved and elections are held by other than the methods mentioned above, which are originally found in the constitution, these procedures will be unconstitutional.  LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps


Tivon » August 6th, 2022

1.) General Budget

2.) Formation of GOI

3.) ?

To be short. I stated for the past four months or so that the first two things were not needed or required in order to implement any reforms. Both have been confirmed from official reports that none will be happening this year other than the preparation for early elections.

Why? Dissolution of course. As I claimed the requirements for everything to meet the citizens demands were already in motion thanks to the EFSL and then its official publication in the Gazette.

Even still when that happened it wasn’t enough for some to be convinced that Al-Kazemi could not deliver on anything until the GOI was seated.

Because Maliki needed to be out the way. Despite the many things that were still being done while Al-Maliki was still on the loose to cause problems. Or too much corruption. There’s no stability. The GOI has to be seated. We need a budget. Joe Biden will not let this happen.

All of these excuses and none of this turned out to be true.

Nothing stopped the PM from paying off debt visiting diplomats and ambassadors or having the ministries implement certain things to prepare for the new digital system.

Now today you see that the peaceful demonstrations have worked to effectively clean out the rats the citizens stand in victory anticipating that their demands are going to be met without a budget or seated GOI.

Now what was the other thing I said is coming, since you can basically scratch off the other two? What is the very thing that will conclude this investment and expedite its formal initiation since Al-Kazemi has already stated it will come after the peaceful protesting was done?

You already seen the official news reports. You already heard Eddie. You know the CBI, AMF, and IMF had meetings. You know banks already been notified about the 15th deadline. Tell me what are your suspicions about item number 3 happening sometime this month.

I mean….you do know the citizens have already been promised that their demands are not years away. Not months away. Not weeks away. But days away. This is in print.

Demands/Entitlements/Reforms are all interchangeable and synonymous.  They need one thing to work. What is it? Imo

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MilitiaMan » August 6th, 2022

Door #3 is the process to get to the RV to start and that, at this point can take nanoseconds.. imo.. ~ MM

Iobey77 » August 6th, 2022

A Shiny New Rate!!!

NoodlesDad » August 6th, 2022

Lower Denoms, Coins and Fils.

Safeone » August 6th, 2022

Ah Ah, IMO, how about someone pulling the trigger?????

Suzie » August 6th, 2022

how about implementation?????

DallasDude » August 6th, 2022

How about some Damn Courage

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Ourcoin » August 6th, 2022

Dissolution  IMO  

Tivon » August 6th, 2022

Nope. Done and over with. Something else that doesn’t involve politics at all. I wonder what could it be? …. hmmmmmmm. Imo

DallasDude » August 6th, 2022

With all due respect did I miss an article that dissolution has been made official..I would agree that’s where it is headed..

Tivon » August 6th, 2022

The motion alone is dissolution. You think Al-Kazemi is waiting for their actual resignation papers? No. Why? Because the EFSL is not a wait & see law. I said this so many times but you guys think Al-Kazemi is playing around for some reason. The guy moves to the letter of the law. Not the time it takes you to adhere to one. If he did that we would actually be waiting until next year right? Because that’s when the new government will be voted in right? Think. The early elections is a result of dissolution. Imo

DallasDude » August 6th, 2022

All I know is that in 3 days it will be 2 months since EFSL was voted on an passed..I don’t think Kazemi is playing around at all but I do believe an official announcement of dissolution will come before a rate change does, this is what I expect to hear first and foremost and for that reason alone we won’t be waiting until next year..remember the late 4th quarter and trailing but the balls on the twenty yard line with less than a minute to go..Kazemi is the Tom Brady of the middle east right now

Tivon » August 6th, 2022

What did they say the citizens would receive in days? Dissolution or Entitlements? We are talking about what’s in print. Not what our theories are. You missed this one.

Legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi, 08/03/2022, clarified the roadmap for constitutional procedures to achieve the demands of the demonstrators.

Al-Tamimi told Al-Masala that declaring a state of emergency is the key and the beginning of solutions, and it is announced in accordance with Article 61 ninth of the Iraqi constitution, whereby the Al-Kazemi government is empowered with extended powers and subsequent constitutional procedures and is authorized to administer the elections after the parliament is dissolved.

Samson » August 6th, 2022

Sadrist’s deputy submits a request to Al-Halbousi to hold an extraordinary session to dissolve parliament

6th August, 2022

A representative of the Sadrist movement, Burhan Al-Maamouri, submitted a request to Parliament Speaker Muhammad Al-Halbousi regarding the dissolution of Parliament.

Al-Maamouri, the only Sadrist MP who did not resign from parliament, demanded that Al-Halbousi hold an emergency session to dissolve parliament and set a date for early elections. 

Translation ……

Honorable Speaker of the House of Representatives Subject / Dissolution of the House of Representatives, Greetings:

According to the provisions of Article (64) of the Constitution, which states:

First, the House of Representatives is dissolved by an absolute majority of its members based on a request from one-third of its members.  In view of the failure of the House of Representatives to elect a President of the Republic based on the provisions of Article (70) of the Constitution and its failure to implement its constitutional obligations, please kindly approve the dissolution of the House of Representatives and hold an extraordinary session of the Council for this purpose based on the provisions of Article (58) of the Constitution and setting a date for early elections. 

We enclose a list of the names of the deputies supporting and signatories to the request. Thank you very much. The accompaniments / – A list of the names of the deputies who signed and supported the request.  LINK

Sawco » August 6th, 2022

Maybe I misunderstood, but I thought that PM K could dissolve parliament on his own, not needing any vote from Parliament…. Did I misunderstand..??  

MilitiaMan » August 6th, 2022

There was speculation that Kahdimi could use necessary powers to do so. However, this article and many others supports that there is a likelihood that a more specific constitutional way is being used. There are more than one. I suspect that the list of names is the 110 needed to dissolve. Well timed today.. imo ~ MM

Source: Dinar Recaps


Samson » August 6th, 2022

Russia bans the trading of its companies’ shares to citizens and investors of “unfriendly countries”

5th August, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed today, Friday, a decree banning the trading of shares of Russian companies to citizens and investors of “unfriendly countries” until the end of this year.

The decision includes preventing investors from “unfriendly countries” from buying shares and investing in strategic and affiliated companies, in addition to the “Sakhalin 1” project and the “Kharajinskoye” energy field, according to the Middle East News Agency.

The decree includes drilling and underground extraction companies, in addition to companies serving the Russian fuel and energy complex and Russian banks.

Putin gave the Russian Cabinet 10 days to prepare a list of Russian companies, banks and transactions, in which the use of shares by foreigners from unfriendly countries is prohibited.

On June 30, the Russian president signed a decree on the “Sakhalin-2” project, in which “Gazprom Sakhalin Holding” will receive shares in the authorized capital of the operator.   LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps

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