“Golden Opportunity” – Fri. AM TNT Thoughts/News 8-12-22



Economist: The Price Of A Barrel Of Oil May Reach 130 Dollars Next Winter

The economic expert, Dr. Safwan Qusay, suggested that the price of a barrel of oil would reach 130 dollars during the coming winter, pointing to the possibility of investing the increase in revenues and converting them into internal investments and activating the private sector to absorb unemployment and introduce new revenues to the country.

Qusay told Al-Maalouma, “The price of oil will depend on the amount of releases from strategic storage for China, Japan, America and the European Union, who own strategic reserves, as consumption is scheduled to be at a rate of 60 million barrels per month.”

He added that “the mentioned countries and if they raise the percentage of consumption from the strategic storage, it is possible to control the price, and in the end, the prices will remain at their position during the current period, but it may reach in the winter to 130 dollars per barrel.”

And he indicated that “Iraq can invest the surplus of oil prices in absorbing unemployment and poverty, developing infrastructure, and resorting to investment to employ the unemployed and activate the private sector to bring in new revenues.”  link

Source: Dinar Recaps

Iraq knows they are holding the golden opportunity in there hands and they know this opportunity may pass them by for years again…..this is their Gound Hog DAY…. I think it happening on a downward slope and will happen soon…

anyone ever hear about the RV in Japan, Hawaii and Germany, quite the interesting story… many went from rags to britches and from poverty to shameless riches… these events are true folks read them and weep over the blessings that are headed your way, tears of happiness….

Tony’s last cc was loud and clear imo. He wants us to wait and see what Iraq will or will not do. If they do nothing, he clearly has said the US/UN will do it for them. He also clearly recognized that every time we get close to the rv, the rug gets pulled out from underneath us.what does or does not happen. I know. I know….One way or another, even if it takes to the end of this year, a Caretaker Govt., (or an Interim Govt.) is the sweet spot for us, imo.

Also keep in mind, that we may be in the middle of being “Kuwaited”. That is just fine with me. We may be being lied to and there is a real shadow, behind the scenes govt. operating all along, which will end up with the cbi pulling the trigger. Great. Do it, already.

Central Bank of Iraq reserves return to levels before ISIS war

Baghdad (IraqiNews.com) – The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) announced that its cash reserves rose to 82 billion USD, which is the level prior to ISIS war, and advanced 10 ranks in the list of countries with the largest gold reserves in the world, with 130 tons.

The spokesperson for the Central Bank of Iraq, Omar Essam, indicated that the bank’s cash reserves rose to 82 billion USD, and is expected to reach 90 billion USD by the end of 2022.

The bank’s cash reserves witnessed a significant decrease after the Ministry of Finance withdrew 12 trillion dinars in a first step, and 14 trillion dinars in a second step at the end of 2020 because of the financial crisis caused by the Corona pandemic and the drop in oil prices.

In regards to gold reserves, Essam explained that Iraq possesses 130 tons of gold, and is among the countries with the largest gold reserves. He added that Iraq is now ranked the 30th globally and the fourth in the Arab world.

Member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Jamal Cougar, elaborated that Iraq’s reserves before the ISIS war ranged between 81-82 billion USD, but they decreased after the ISIS war to about 38 billion USD during the times of former prime ministers Haider Al-Abadi and Adel Abdul Mahdi.

Cougar also talked about gold reserves and mentioned that the world is heading towards gold and not the US dollar as a reserve for central banks. He added that the reserves were in gold before they become in US dollars. 

Cougar indicated that there is a Russian-Chinese effort to end the dominance of the US dollar and restore the position of gold, clarifying that there are countries fear that the dollar will lose its position

A strong rise for oil .. Brent is close to $ 100 a barrel

Oil prices closed higher than two dollars after the International Energy Agency raised its forecast for the growth of oil demand for this year, as the rise in natural gas prices led to some consumers turning to oil.

Brent crude futures rose $2.20, or 2.3%, to settle at $99.60 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also rose $2.41, or 2.6 percent, to $94.34.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil report, in which it raised its forecast for demand in 2022 by 380,000 barrels per day, “Natural gas and electricity prices rose to new records, spurring the transition from gas to oil in some countries.” .

By contrast, on Thursday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2022, citing the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, high inflation and efforts to contain the Corona pandemic.

OPEC expects oil demand to rise in 2022 by 3.1 million barrels per day, down by 260,000 barrels per day from previous expectations. However, it still expects a higher overall global oil demand figure than the IEA for 2022.

Last week’s rise in US oil inventories and the resumption of crude flows in a pipeline supplying central Europe limited price gains.

The US Energy Information Administration said US crude oil inventories rose 5.5 million barrels in the last week, much more than expectations for an increase of 73,000 barrels.

The United States said on Thursday that nine companies will buy 20 million barrels of oil in the latest sale of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, as part of the efforts of President Joe Biden’s administration to ease high oil prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a lack of spare capacity globally to boost production.

The administration said in March that it would withdraw 1 million barrels of crude per day from May to October, or about 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which holds oil in caves on the coasts of Louisiana and Texas   link

Iraq’s budget… a tossing ball and scattered accounts

Iraq’s budget… A government without a financial budget has become not a strange thing in the Iraqi state in recent years, despite the severe economic and development damage to the country as a result.

The budget specifies the items of state expenditures during a year, especially for salaries, subsidies, and the payment of debt burdens, as well as the target of state revenues. Despite the government’s success in obtaining about $ 18 billion within the Emergency Security Law for Food Security and Development approved by Parliament on June 8 to secure energy imports, finance important service projects, and fund the Social Welfare Fund, officials confirm the country’s continued need for the draft budget. Earlier, at nearly $90 billion.

Above all, the final accounts of the previous budgets have not been resolved, although they must be submitted after the end of each fiscal year and before the approval of the new budget.

In this regard, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, clarifies about the presentation of the final accounts of the current government, indicating that there are two main factors that have contributed to the failure to approve the final accounts on a regular basis 10 years ago. 

Saleh said on June 30 that “the current government’s presentation of the final accounts requires the submission of final accounts extending from the year 2015-2020, taking into account that the year 2020 there is no general budget, which requires the submission of a draft law called the current budget, which is a legal expression of a final account and budget in

At the same time, the revenues and expenditures are now realized. Saleh said that “the oversight task of the House of Representatives in this regard will be a little arduous in following up the completion of the country’s final accounts for the years 2013-2021, but it will certainly be fruitful after passing the final account for the fiscal year 2013 and enacting a budget law for the current situation for the year 2014 so that the government can refer the rest of the government accounts sequentially only previous years”.

And the Federal Supreme Court – its decisions are binding on all authorities – stripped Al-Kazemi’s government of all powers, as it is a caretaker government with limited powers, and it is not entitled to propose important bills with the invalidation of all appointment orders of higher grades issued during the period of the conduct of business. 

In his speech at the cabinet meeting yesterday, Al-Kazemi held the political situation responsible for the delay in the budget, and said: “We are now in the eighth month of 2022, and there is no budget, and the imbalance is not in the government, but because of the existing political situation, so how do we build schools, pave roads and build projects with Absence of political consensus on forming a government or finding a solution to the political impasse. He promised, “The issue of the budget is a very serious matter, and we have good financial abundance and we need to invest it in rebuilding infrastructure and achieving the demands of our people.”

With regard to the federal budget for the fiscal year 2023, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Haitham al-Jubouri, ruled out its approval, saying to Al-Furat on July 25: “It can only be approved by the presence of a new government and not necessarily adopting the same approach as the current government, it may take austerity for the sake of the article; but if the government remains we will proceed with laying down the doors of the law.” 

MP Ahmed Hama Rashid agrees with Al-Jubouri regarding the impossibility of approving the budget, saying, “The current government is unable to approve the country’s budget for this year, because it does not have the powers to legislate laws as approved by the Federal Court,” describing Al-Kazemi’s talk about the necessity of approving the budget.

“Scattered ashes in the eyes, nothing more.” While the economic expert, Ali Al-Fraiji, considered that the political crisis over the formation of the next government has plunged Iraq into “a new chaos over how to invest the state’s revenues and capabilities.” 

Al- Fraiji pointed out that “it is difficult to approve the budget for this year in light of the political turmoil that Iraq is witnessing,” noting that Iraq is entering economic chaos today, adding to the negative accumulations of previous years. State matters, including the salaries of employees and retirees, stated that a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Jamal Cougar, said: “Compensation for the affected economic sectors needs a financial cover, and we have two legal covers to provide the allocated amounts.

”Presenting alternative laws by the government if they are in full force. He added, “As for the presence of a caretaker government, they should cooperate with each other to present financial laws as a proposed law from Parliament,” stressing “the need for coordination between the government and parliament to cover and expand any sector that institutions need.” 

And the economists’ warnings escalated that the country would remain without a financial budget, and not address the effects of that, especially since its approval needs a few more months, in the event that the political crisis in Iraq is overcome.

Here, the expert in economic affairs, Abdul Hassan Al-Shammari, says that “this delay will hit the investment sector, and will contribute to the spread of unemployment among young people, and will even raise poverty indicators to higher levels.” Al-Shammari believes that “addressing the effects of this will be difficult, and not as easy as some officials are talking about, so the political blocs should be aware of the danger of the current stage, and avoid taking risks.”

Financial budgets represent the main tool for achieving the state’s general policies, whether economic, social, or service, and serve as a presentation of the government’s annual plans and programs, which it prepares in response to current challenges. 

Budgets give governments the best planning to achieve the maximum revenue, and to reorganize their distribution according to spending priorities in order to serve the community. Most importantly, the budget is a tool that reflects the power and symbolism of the state through spending spending on all departments and institutions according to spending plans that are developed in a manner consistent with Citizen priorities, which means economic aspects will be disrupted if they are not approved

Source: Dinar Recaps


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