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“When will it Happen” – Thurs. AM TNT Thoughts/News 10-6-22

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TNT

CandyKisses:
Newspapers continue to talk about the date of approving the next budget.. and the feasibility of issuing new categories of currency

The newspapers issued in Baghdad this morning, Thursday, the sixth of October, continued to talk about the date of approving the next budget, the feasibility of issuing new categories of currency, and other issues.

On the issue of the budget, Al-Sabah newspaper, which is issued by the Iraqi Media Network, said: “The Parliamentary Finance Committee has approved the readiness of the 2023 budget in next January.”

Committee member Faisal Al-Naeli said in a statement to Al-Sabah: “The budget for next year will be decided at the beginning, and no later than January or February,” noting that “the formation of the government is close to discussing it in the first months of next year, in November and early January.” He added: “Both the government and the committee will take into consideration the surplus that was achieved from crude oil sales after the rise in its prices globally,”

Noting: “The budget will be loaded with many positives that can serve the interest of the citizen without affecting the central bank reserves after difficult circumstances.” The country experienced during the Corona pandemic and the drop in global oil prices, which led the country to borrow.”

Al-Naeli stressed: “Providing services to the people in all governorates will be a priority in the 2023 budget, after it was missed over the past years.” But the economic expert, Manar al-Obeidi, largely ruled out, according to the newspaper, that the service aspect should be a priority for next year’s budget. Al-Obaidi was quoted as saying: “There are reports of a decline in oil prices, which leads to a decrease in state revenues, in addition to a rise in operating expenses, which represent about 94 percent of total expenditures, and it is difficult for the expenses to be operating in a budget.” And he added: There will be no budgets concerned with the service aspect during the next year and beyond unless the issue of operating expenses is resolved, and salaries and social benefits are reduced, or a solution is found for them at least, or an increase in state revenues from sectors other than oil.”

Regarding the issuance of new currencies, the newspaper said. Al-Zawraa, which is issued by the Iraqi Journalists Syndicate: “The Parliamentary Finance Committee suggested printing a currency of 100,000 dinars instead of a denomination of 20 thousand dinars to counter the high rates of inflation in the market.”

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Member of the Committee, Representative Nermin Maarouf, said in an interview with Al-Zawra: “We do not have details about what was raised in the media regarding the Central Bank’s intention to print a currency of 20 thousand dinars.” And she added: “I do not think that the Iraqi economy needs to print such a category, because the categories of the Iraqi currency are sufficient to complete transactions, especially since in the economy usually when the rate of inflation rises, the daily transactions of citizens need large groups to complete the daily exchange operations, and the economy does not need categories. small”.

And she continued, “If the Central Bank had the intention of issuing a new category, the first was to print a category greater than 50 thousand to complete large transactions, such as the category of 100,000 dinars,” pointing out that the category of 20 thousand dinars is not necessary because we have 10 thousand dinars and we have 25 thousand dinars. And there is no economic justification for issuing such a category, because the issuance of such a category is not necessary at the present time due to the high rates of inflation, and usually in this case we need larger categories.”

She pointed out: “The available monetary mass in the economy is estimated at more than 80 trillion dinars, And if a large part, and perhaps half of this money mass, is stored in individuals and families at home, and is not circulated in the economic cycle, due to the weakness of the banking systems, which were unable to attract these savings and make them part of the economic process and recycle these funds within the various economic activities

She concluded by saying: “I do not think that we need more cash injection, but rather we need to re-employ or move the idle and saved funds through activating banking institutions to attract savings for the purpose of investing them within the various economic activities.”

In another matter, Al-Zaman newspaper continued the preparations for the celebration of the Prophet’s birthday. In this regard, she said: “The Baghdadis are preparing preparations for the celebration of the Prophet’s birthday in the shrines of Abu Hanifa al-Numan and Sheikh Abdul Qadir al-Kilani, where most Iraqis are keen to decorate homes, roads and markets, coinciding with the launch of the celebrations that continue until the late hours of tomorrow Friday.”

And she added: “What distinguishes the celebration of this occasion is the customs and traditions inherited from fathers and grandfathers, as families prepare food and sweets and distribute them among neighbors and those who seek out. They place it in separate parts of the house or outside it after the evening prayer, as many believe that this is a blessing on the night of the birth of the Master of Creation, and they look at it with eyes of joy and hope for a better tomorrow.

Al-Zaman indicated: “The Iraqi Fiqh Council of Senior Scholars of Da’wah and Iftaa discussed with the Director of Adhamiya Municipality Zahid Al-Kitab, preparation for the upcoming celebration.

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Yada:
If the Kurds can pull this off, we may not have to wait for the UN. “Kurdish deputy: Parliament will set next week a date for electing the President of the Republic”

I will root for anything they put together. They, the Iraqis, now know that the warning has been issued and it’s up to them to try anyway. As much as I favor Sadr’s cause, he has now gone beyond reason in stopping the formation.

2gold:
At the beginning of every month “this is it”- now it’s maybe by months end.” Soon it will be “by the end of year.” 17 years for me – same old story month after month, year after year!. When will it happen? Only God knows.

Yada:
2gold, I would encourage you to understand why it has been that the past 18 years. It wasn’t for a lack of trying. Their constitution continued to allow for the manipulation of this release and NOW, those who have been running rough shod, have now been cornered. The same UN who lowered their dinar is now the same UN who have given them notice of the REISSUE of their currency.

Tishwash:
International banks: Oil will catch fire after the “OPEC +” decision, and exceed $110

International banks expected, on Thursday, that oil prices would ignite after the recent “OPEC +” decision, to exceed $110 a barrel.  

The expectations of oil prices, which have witnessed many cuts in recent weeks, in light of expectations of a decline in demand in light of the economic slowdown and inflation that are plaguing the markets, after the largest OPEC + production cut from 2020.  

This comes while markets are awaiting Washington’s reaction to the decision to cut, which the US President believes was not necessary, as he accused the group that it did not take into account global conditions and that the decision came in the interest of Russia.  

US investment bank Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the price of Brent oil for the fourth quarter by $10 a barrel to $110, according to a note from several analysts.  

“All the developments we’ve seen on the supply side at this point are pretty much setting the stage for what we think will be higher prices at the end of this year,” Damien Corvalin, head of energy research, told Bloomberg TV.  

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The adjustment comes as a result of OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day from November, and the note states that OPEC+ plans to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, which is a real decrease of 1.2 million barrels per day compared to the bank’s forecast for November.  

US investment bank Goldman Sachs said the price is likely to rise further if the production plan is adhered to and market conditions continue to improve.  

Goldman Sachs believes the cut makes sense, albeit exceptional, as it increases the oil group’s revenue with the least amount of sacrifice in future profits.  

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)  

“Brent crude will find its way to $100 a barrel faster than we previously expected after the OPEC+ move,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martin Ratts said in a note.    link

Harambe:
World Currency Reserves Shrink by $1 Trillion in Record Drawdown | Bloomberg 10/5/22

Global foreign-currency reserves are falling at the fastest pace on record as central banks from India to the Czech Republic intervene to support their currencies.

Reserves have declined by about $1 trillion, or 7.8%, this year to $12 trillion, the biggest drop since Bloomberg started to compile the data in 2003.

Part of the slump is simply due to valuation changes. As the dollar jumped to two-decade highs against other reserve currencies, like the euro and yen, it reduced the dollar value of the holdings of these currencies. But the dwindling reserves also reflect the stress in the currency market that is forcing a growing number of central banks to dip into their war chests to fend off the depreciation.

India’s stockpile, for example, has tumbled $96 billion this year to $538 billion. The country’s central bank said asset valuation changes account for 67% of the decline in reserves during the fiscal year from April, implying the rest came from intervention to prop up the currency. The rupee has lost about 9% against the dollar this year and hit a record low last month.

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Japan spent about $20 billion in September to slow the yen’s slide in its first intervention to support the currency since 1998. That would account for about 19% of the loss of reserves this year. A currency intervention in the Czech Republic helped drive down reserves there by 19% since February.

“This is all part of the catalog of symptoms of the canary in the coal mine,” said Axel Merk, chief investment officer at Merk Investments, of the declining reserves. “Cracks are showing up. And those red flags will come at an increasing pace.”

While the magnitude of the decline is extraordinary, the practice of using reserves to defend currencies isn’t anything new. Central banks buy dollars and build up their stockpiles to slow currency appreciation when foreign capital floods in. In bad times, they draw on the reserves to soften the blow from capital flight.

“Some countries, notably in Asia, can go both ways, smoothing weakness, and pockets of strength,” said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.

Most central banks still have enough fire power to keep interventions going, if they chose to. Foreign reserves in India are still 49% higher than 2017 levels, and enough to pay for nine months of imports.

But for others, they are quickly depleting. After declining 42% this year, Pakistan’s $14 billion of reserves aren’t enough to cover three months of imports, data compiled by Bloomberg show

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/world-currency-reserves-shrink-by-1-trillion-in-record-drawdown

Source: Dinar Recaps

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