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“Exciting Times Ahead” – Sat. PM KTFA Thoughts, News w/ MilitiaMan 11-5-22

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MilitiaMan » November 5th, 2022

The Iraqi president refuses to accept Al-Maliki as his deputy, and the Sudanese is keeping the security institutions away from the control of the militias

This is a welcome sight to behold I will bet by many an Iraqi. I am sure there could be some blow back from this but, with what we have seen in the outcome of the fresh new GOI with it’s PMs cabinet seated suggests that the PM Sudani is playing the line that was drawn in the sand by Al-Sadr.

We wouldn’t be in the place we are in now with out there having been agreements made.

The GOI has forward movement and an agenda likely with timelines to be complete and along side and in tandem with the CBI.

Any interference now will likely not be tolerated. We have seen significant arrests of late. That could continue on into the future. The new system will be a part of that, hence the latest intensity we see for the push against corruption. 

In the mean time lets see how the GOI and the CBI play their cards. The Kurds have agreements on the table too. They have an expectation of being a part of the second half of the 2022 Budget or EFSL designed to be outside of the Elite Politicians hands, yet for investment they are a part of that.

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The amounts of money for investment are in the tune of $80 – $115 Billion.. Yep, with a capital B.

The Kurds didn’t take part in the first half of the operational side of things in the EFSL, so with that amount of money being sliced and deals to possibly skirt constitutional rulings, is very interesting. 

The UN, USA, etc, have been in those talks. The talk of no new contracts and present law suits being put to the side with respect to the Kurds makes me feel deals have been on the table for some time and are just now getting to the finer points if you will. The HCL is one of those finer points (Hydro carbon Law)

There needs to be clarity and some of the past may muddy the waters, hence no need for change with new VPs. The PM knows the score. I suspect the leader of the CF is now fully aware that times have changed..  

Lets see what the days bring. We know there is ample talk of the budget being done in days. To that I am of the view they are talking about the EFSL (Emergency Food Security Law)  prior to the 2023 being adjusted and completed.

The 2022 budget / EFSL wil have to play out the 2nd half prior top the 2023. We know they audited the 2003 – 2021. This time is different than in the prior few years. The 2019 FML saw to that.

The EFSL is different ball game..  IMO.. This all bodes very well for all.. imo ~ MM

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Planning announces the start of preparing the 2023 budget

Thursday 03 November 2022 

The Ministry of Planning announced today, Thursday, that it will start preparing the 2023 budget, while it clarified about resolving its ceilings, and confirmed that it will work to reconcile the government’s priorities and its ministerial program when writing it.

Deputy Minister of Planning Maher Hammad said, “The Ministry of Planning informed the Ministry of Finance that it will start preparing the budget for the next year,” noting that “the 2022 budget that was prepared previously will be changed and amendments will be made to it for many considerations, including changing the situation and the government,” noting that “we will work to make a consensus.” With the government’s priorities, program and ministerial curriculum in budget writing.

He added, “We are currently working in detail, as we communicate with the Ministry of Finance on the details that pertain to the common sides, whether as investment budget items or as loans,” noting that “the budget ceilings have not been determined so far.”

He continued, “The ceilings were set during the ministry’s meeting with the Ministry of Oil, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, which shows the amount of production and export of oil and the expected price per barrel, and is reflected on the budget divisions and its needs,” noting that “the Ministry of Finance needs greater efforts because it provides all operational amounts.” In addition to the issue of appointments, contracts and the lack of salaries, in addition to many details such as electricity and gas provision for energy.”

He stated, “This topic takes time in order to organize and arrange and take into account the heads of the main points or directions of the government,” explaining that “the ideas of the Prime Minister are reflected in the government program and thus are reflected on us in the procedures.”LINK

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So the Ministry of Planning is preparing the 2023 budget and they note there is to be a resolution to budget ceilings and they confirm they’re to reconcile government priorities.

Well the government needs to have reconciliation within their budgets from 2003 to present that are a part of those priorities. That would be from 2003 – 2021 and through the 2022 budget too!! They are likely to have 2022 specifically done by now or we  wouldn’t be this close to having the 2023 budget ready to be completed. 

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The main players tell us the 2022 budget was previously prepared and that it will be changed with amendments.

They told us that during the EFSL process to the best of my recollection to on the table to do. Sadr would not have resigned with out that bit with the EFSL being sorted in the agreements.

They say there will be many considerations, including changing the “situation and the government”. Those two items are clearly CBI and GOI related… The “situational” aspect? Is imo likely to do with economic and monetary reforms, and the latter, it being the implementation of government policy, which is to set the former in motion (MR).

They need to have the data on dollar/dinar amounts to be reflected in the spreadsheets pricing grids. 

The ceilings set or yet to be set is hard to decipher, as they do say both above. Set and not set? lol I’ll go with they were set, as they invoke the MOO,(Minister of Oil?)  the CBI and the MOF. They all would know if it is done by now.

They would know the monetary statistics necessary to reflect the amounts of production, price per barrel of oil and it’s divisions and it needs, etc. The MOF (Minister of Finance) has to be accurate in the details.

They will adjust the figures in the budget to reflect exchange rate changes, fairly simple. If that is the case, many people will need to know the calculations to input from the 2022 reconciled budget to be placed into the data set for the 2023..

The expectation is that according to data will not be long from now.. Imo… I really like the data they are putting out to support this view.. A lot!!! ~ MM

Samson » November 5th, 2022

A completely new draft.. What is the relationship of the Russian-Ukrainian war to Iraq’s budget for 2023? 

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4th November, 2022

The economic expert, Salam Sumaisem, confirmed today, Friday, that the new government will prepare a new draft of the 2023 budget bill and will not depend on the previous government’s draft because of different visions, while noting that the consequences of the Ukrainian-Russian war will affect the price of a barrel of oil that will be estimated in the budget.

Sumaisem told (Baghdad Today) that “the new government will prepare itself the draft budget law, as the government program needs a budget that differs from the draft prepared by the previous government,” explaining that “the Sudanese have goals that he will work to implement through some exchange gates in the budget, especially related to investment funds and social expenditures related to poverty and unemployment.

She explained, “The dates for sending the draft budget law by the government to Parliament are related to constitutional issues, especially since the 2023 budget is supposed to be ready before starting in 2023,” while Salam believes that “the price of oil in the budget will be linked to many factors, the most important of which are the conditions of the Ukrainian-Russian war.” Especially as we approach the winter season.  

She pointed out that “Iraq is used to setting the barrel’s price significantly lower than its original price, and the financial surplus will be rounded for the next year, but we always do not know where these surplus funds go because there are no final accounts that reveal their fate.”

She concluded by saying that “the 2023 budget is supposed to be different, especially in the development aspect, and not be different in the aspects of current spending, that is, the increase in expenditures and salaries only. The financial abundance should be a reason to increase development funds, until we notice an improvement in the file of food, health and social security reduce poverty and unemployment.

In previous statements, Finance Minister Taif Sami confirmed that “one of the most important priorities of the new government and the ministry is to present and approve the draft general federal budget for the year 2023.” The Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani, directed that the draft financial budget law for the next year 2023 be sent as soon as possible.  LINK

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MilitiaMan » November 5th, 2022

As we talked about earlier. There are two sides of the 2022 budget. There is the operational side (social expenditures) and the investment side. They tell us the have to have the 2023 budget done before implementation. They go on to say that the budget is linked to many thing including not only oil, but the borders, LNG, minerals, tourism, etc. etc. They say there are no final accounts? I feel that is likely to be a past circumstance and not present any longer. We know the past has been audited and or being finalized noted by the 2022 budget being finalized. imo ~ MM

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Samson » November 5th, 2022

Parliamentary Finance reveals the date for the arrival of next year’s budget

4th November, 2022

Today, Friday, the Parliamentary Finance Committee announced the date of the arrival of the financial budget for the next year, noting that its delay was due to the submission of requests related to transferring it from items to a program budget.

Committee member Jamal Cougar told (Baghdad Today) that “the financial budget will reach Parliament at the end of this month,” noting that “Minister of Finance Taif Sami is the one who prepared the budget while managing this file, and accordingly there will be no delay in completing it quickly and sending it from the government to Parliament.”

Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani called for the completion of the budget and sending it to the Council of Ministers to vote on it and send it to Parliament. LINK

MilitiaMan » November 5th, 2022

So it looks as though the may have done the transferring of items to a program budget. They need to have the calculations from the reconciled 2022 budget to the next 2023 budget. If  that is the case.. Exciting times are ahead.. Lets see what the CBI has to say too… ~ MM

Source: Dinar Recaps


Samson » November 5th, 2022

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Wide popular turnout for Baghdad International Fair

04/11/2022 22:27:50

The Ministry of Commerce announced today a wide popular turnout for the 46th Baghdad International Fair, which started its activities on the first of this November to see the exhibits of the companies’ pavilions and the countries participating in the exhibition.

A ministry statement quoted the Director General of the General Company for Iraqi Exhibitions and Commercial Services as saying, “The Baghdad International Fair has witnessed, since its early days, the influx of Iraqi families from various regions to see the most important exhibits and the products of the companies and countries participating in the exhibition.”

He explained that “Iraqi families found the Baghdad International Fair an outlet for them, by learning about the cultures of the countries participating in the exhibition and the events that take place during its days, as it is the largest cultural and social gathering that includes places to shop for Iraqi, Arab and international goods.” He pointed out that “the company is in high coordination with the security authorities to create safe conditions for families roaming the corridors of the exhibition.”

It is noteworthy that the Baghdad International Fair also witnessed the establishment of a number of cultural events and seminars within the pavilions of companies and participating countries, and the establishment of fireworks activities and a display of rare cars.  LINK

Iraq and Russia are preparing to sign a cooperation agreement in the field of nuclear energy

5th November, 2022

The Economic Adviser of the Russian Embassy in Iraq, Ilya Lobov, announced on Saturday that Moscow and Baghdad are preparing the necessary steps to sign a memorandum on cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear technologies.

Preparations are underway to sign a memorandum of understanding on cooperation between the two countries in the field of peaceful use of non-energy nuclear technologies,” Lubov said in a statement to the Russian “RT” channel. He pointed out that the two sides are also studying cooperation in the field of education, including in the form of accepting Iraqi students to study in specialized Russian universities.

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According to him, the Iraqi side shows traditional interest in Russian nuclear energy, and the two sides resumed the negotiation process to establish a partnership in this field, within the framework of the agreement signed in 1975 on cooperation in the use of atomic energy.

The adviser added: “Rosatom and the Iraqi Agency for the Control of Radioactive Materials are considering the possibility of implementing small projects in the field of low-energy research reactors. The two parties are also studying the possibility of cooperation in the use of nuclear technologies in non-energy fields, such as medicine, agriculture and water desalination. 

In early September 2022, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced Moscow’s readiness to supply Iraq with radioisotope products, and to assist Baghdad in the field of nuclear medicine.

Director of the Middle East and North Africa Department at the ministry, Alexander Kinchak, said that “the Russian side expressed its readiness to assist Iraqi partners in the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the supply of radioisotope products, as well as training cadres in Russian universities specialized in related fields.”

In this context, Kinshak indicated that Russia is also ready to “implement major joint projects,” adding: “We proceed from the fact that a return to a practical view in this issue is possible with an increase in the volume of cooperation in this intensive scientific field, and also when updating and revising customer plans. related Iraqis.  LINK

Ankara and Moscow agree to send free Russian grain to African countries

4th November, 2022

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Friday his agreement with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that Russian grain that is sent under an export agreement through the Black Sea to poor African countries should go free of charge

Erdogan explained, in a speech at the Musiad Expo organized by the Association of Independent Industrialists and Businessmen in Istanbul, that “Putin offered, in his last phone call with him, to send grain for free to needy countries, and he said, “Let’s send these grains to countries such as Djibouti, Somalia and Sudan for free.” And we agreed on that

Putin said this week that even if Russia withdrew from the deal again, it would replace the entire amount of grain intended for “the poorest countries” from its stockpile, free of charge

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Last Saturday, Moscow expressed its readiness to provide 500,000 tons of grain for free to poor countries in the coming months, with the help of Turkey

The Turkish president indicated that he agreed with his Russian counterpart to discuss this issue extensively during the G20 summit, which will be held in Bali, Indonesia, on November 13-14 LINK

Iraqi oil exports to America decreased to 134 thousand barrels per day during the past week
5th November, 2022

On Saturday, the US Energy Information Administration announced that Iraq’s oil exports to the United States of America decreased to 134,000 barrels per day during the past week

The administration said in a report that “the average US imports of crude oil during the past week from eight countries amounted to 5.465 million barrels per day, an increase of 108 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, which amounted to 5.357 million barrels per day

She added that “Iraq’s oil exports to America amounted to an average of 134,000 barrels per day last week, lower than the week before, when oil exports to America reached an average of 220,000 barrels per day

She pointed out that “most of America’s oil revenues during the past week came from Canada at a rate of 3.410 million barrels per day, followed by Mexico at a rate of 748,000 barrels per day, and oil revenues from Saudi Arabia at a rate of 533,000 barrels per day, and then Colombia at a rate of 218 thousand barrels per day

According to the administration, “the amount of US imports of crude oil from Brazil amounted to an average of 212,000 barrels per day, from Libya at a rate of 129 thousand barrels per day, and from Nigeria at an average of 81 thousand barrels per day, while it did not import any quantity from Ecuador and Russia  LINK

How do Gulf countries use oil wealth to build bridges with countries in the region?

5th November, 2022

The Gulf’s oil majors are using the newly acquired fortunes of the Ukraine war to build economic bridges with their poorer neighbours, some of whom the Gulf once viewed as adversaries.

Monarchies are now doubling down on economic cooperation. At the heart of this diplomatic initiative are sovereign wealth funds, which work to secure regional stability through billions of dollars in investments.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – both of which are reaping huge returns from higher oil prices this year – are at the forefront of these investments, establishing themselves in countries that have faced turmoil in some parts due to economic distress.

The International Monetary Fund said last week that energy exporters in the Middle East, including the Gulf states, are expected to see windfall gains of nearly $1 trillion over the next four years on the back of this year’s oil boom.

Money has a huge impact, Michael Madewell, president of the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute in Las Vegas, told CNN, adding that “sovereign wealth funds can be used as tools of foreign policy, as a kind of soft power.”

After nearly a decade of conflict-ridden regional politics, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are moving toward a less confrontational approach. These two countries have repaired relations with regional rivals Turkey and Qatar, and both have reached out to Iran. They have also significantly reduced their military activity in Yemen, where they fought the war seven years ago.

Analysts say this is a new approach to ensuring regional stability, primarily by boosting major economies across the Middle East through investments that are closely linked to their financiers. “The current structure certainly evolved from the days when hard power was seen as more effective,” said Ayham Kamel, head of the Middle East and North Africa research team at Eurasia Group.

The de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, announced last week that the Public Investment Fund is establishing five regional companies worth $24 billion across the Middle East.  From infrastructure and real estate development to communications and technology, the new investments of the Public Investment Fund are targeting Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, Jordan, Sudan and Egypt.

Some of these countries experienced political turmoil when the “Arab Spring” uprisings of 2011 rocked the region more than a decade ago. Other countries are still caught up in the economic and political chaos that has resulted. “This is part of the soft and sticky power aspect of a strategic and tactical departure from the decade of confrontation and conflict initiated by the Arab Spring,” said Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

He told CNN that countries that “have projected their power in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – with the partial exception of Iran – have found themselves stressed and somewhat exhausted after a decade of confrontation.”

The Public Investment Fund’s announcement came on the second day of the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh. In a statement, the Public Investment Fund said that it is pursuing a “strategy to search for new investment opportunities in the Middle East and North Africa.” He added that the investments are also aimed at “diversifying Saudi Arabia’s revenue sources.”

The past year has been generally good for state-owned investors around the world, according to the 2022 annual Global SWF Report, as the size of the sovereign wealth fund industry expanded by 6% in 2021 and for the first time in history crossed the $10 trillion mark.

Emirati wealth funds in particular are at the forefront of the industry. Global SWF said the Gulf state manages about $1.3 trillion through its four funds.

Egypt was one of the main regional investment destinations for both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. It witnessed nationwide protests in 2011, which led to the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak’s rule. To the dismay of the Gulf states, the events that followed led to the brief emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political group viewed with suspicion in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and now considered a terrorist organization by both sides.

Unrest erupted in Egypt more than a decade ago in part because of the country’s economic problems. Today, the Egyptian currency is depreciating again and inflation is rising as the authorities try to keep the economy afloat by securing loans from the International Monetary Fund.

In August, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ), one of the emirate’s wealth funds, announced a number of investments in publicly listed companies in Egypt, “based on its long-term commitment to investing in the country’s economic growth through its strategic joint investment platform.” It’s worth $20 billion.”

The Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia also launched the Saudi Egyptian Investment Company (SEIC) in August, a company dedicated to investments in several vital sectors of the Egyptian economy. SEIC bought stakes worth $1.3 billion in four Egyptian companies.

The financial diplomatic hand of the Gulf states has already proven effective in some countries. Turkey was once a regional competitor, and is now an economic ally of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. “Even with adversaries, Gulf countries now see their financial assets as potentially important levers in building bridges and stimulating more moderate policies in these countries,” Kamel said. “The rapprochement with Turkey has brought valuable investments or financial injections,” he added.

In the face of a severe currency crisis at home, repairing relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates comes at an opportune time for Ankara.

Last year, the UAE established a $10 billion investment fund to “support the Turkish economy and enhance bilateral cooperation between the two countries.” This was followed by a number of other agreements between the UAE’s ADQ and the Turkish Wealth Fund (TWF), with significant investments in venture capital and high-growth potential companies planned in Turkey.

In October, Saudi Trade Minister Majid bin Abdullah al-Qasabi said his country’s investments in Turkey now amount to $18 billion, according to the Saudi Gazette, adding that the Public Investment Fund is looking forward to more investment opportunities there.

Analysts say that despite improved political relations, Gulf investments in Iran and Syria are currently unlikely. But there are signs of a growing economic relationship with it. The Tehran Times reported that Iran and the UAE are targeting $30 billion in annual trade within the next two years from $20 billion this year. Earlier this year, Syrian TV reported that the UAE was weighing investments in the country, without providing details. But these kinds of economic partnerships may go a long way in helping to protect the Gulf states from future turmoil and conflicts with their neighbors.

Ibish says that “infrastructure integration” can help “reduce the risk of conflict by creating mutual interests and interdependence,” giving countries strong incentives to avoid confrontation. LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps

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