Nov 15, 2022
After the Yom Kippur War of 1967 between Israel and Arab states, a new cartel of oil producers emerged as a major player in international affairs.
The Western nations that had supported Israel were cut off from oil supplies by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries. And this includes Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
In fact, it was the greatest worldwide shortage of oil. Now, just last month, Saudi Arabia, OPEC and OPEC+ announced deeper oil production cuts that shocked the world.
Beginning in early October, OPEC+, an oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia, announced that it would reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day. It was a move that would lead to an increase in the price of oil only one month before the midterm elections.
It was said that Riyadh was cooperating with Russia, another major OPEC+ member that would benefit from the shift.
And Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer claims that what Saudi Arabia did to aid Putin in his horrible war is unforgivable. Furthermore, he said that the United States will never forget Russia’s brutal assault on Ukraine.
However, Saudi Arabia pressed for a deeper oil output reduction than Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Two Saudi sources familiar with the discussions said that the Russians were taken aback by this. And this suggests that Riyadh’s motivations go more profound than many prominent Democrats are willing to accept.
Now, hey were afraid of retaliation from the Saudi authorities, so they asked to remain anonymous.
The Saudis reportedly want a much steeper output cut than Russia and the other OPEC+ members first requested.
And according to Reuters on September 27th, Russia preferred a cut of 1 million barrels per day, which was just half of what was eventually agreed upon.
Then, on October 5th, OPEC+ declared it would reduce output by 2 million barrels per day.
White House National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby claimed on October 14 that some OPEC+ countries had reservations about the decrease but gave in after being pressured by Saudi Arabia. But he wouldn’t say which countries in particular.
But reports say Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and even the United Arab Emirates, a strong friend of Saudi Arabia, are among the OPEC+ nations that have discreetly pushed back against the decrease.
Reportedly, these nations were worried that output cuts might trigger a recession, which would lower the oil demand.
According to the sources, Saudi Arabia, a putative friend, pushed for even harsher cutbacks than Russia, a foe of the US, thought they could get away with.
Many in Washington, DC, believe that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman secretly supports Vladimir Putin. One insider, a Saudi close to the royal family, added, “But I think MBS is even more Putinian than Putin.” MBS is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and the country’s de facto ruler.
The Saudi government has said it made the change for purely economic reasons. And democrats in high places, including the White House, have claimed that the Saudis are working to strengthen their relationship with Russia.
As Kirby put it, “the facts are plain,” despite the Saudi foreign ministry’s best efforts at spin and deflection. He also said that the OPEC members were aware that cutting oil output would “boost Russian earnings and dilute the effects of sanctions against Russia” during its invasion of Ukraine.
Many prominent Democrats have come to agree with this message. However, analysts claim that the cut is aimed directly at the Democratic Party, which is something that Democratic leaders have been hesitant to recognize in public.
So why did the Saudi government cut production despite US recommendations to the contrary? ABRAHAM ACCORDS
The formalization of ties between the United Arab Emirates and Israel and strategic coordination with Saudi Arabia will lessen the necessity for direct American participation in the area.
Moreover, the United States is less important as a neutral third-party mediator and facilitator in the three nations’ joint efforts to counter Iran.
Russia and China have also taken the initiative to discuss security and commerce with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Furthermore, the Abraham Accords illustrate how the United States may benefit and suffer from the success of a strategy. One positive effect for the United States would be fewer American soldiers and fewer resources committed to the Middle East.
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