JPMorgan, Blackstone, BlackRock Expect a ‘Zero Chance’ Risk of US Debt Default

JPMorgan, Blackstone, BlackRock don’t expect a US debt default – Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says it’s a ‘zero chance’ risk.

Zinya Salfiti 
May 27, 2023, 5:45 AM EDT

• Economists including Jeremy Siegel ruled out a US debt default, saying the political standoff over the borrowing limit will be resolved in time, as it has done many times in the past.
• JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman are also optimistic that a default will be avoided.
• Here is a selection of recent commentary from top voices who don’t think a US debt default is in the cards. 

Wall Street warnings about the risk of a US debt default have turned increasingly dire in recent days, as the political deadlock over the government’s borrowing limit drags on.

Yet, there are many who are unfazed by all that noise – those who remain convinced the political wrangling will get resolved, albeit after much posturing, in time for the US to avoid a default, as it has done several times in the past.

Economists Jeremy Siegel, Joe LaVorgna and Devid Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, are among those who stress that this is a political drama that keeps playing out time and again, pretty much the same way and with the same results, in the US. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman have also been optimistic that the impasse will end.

Here is a selection of commentary from high-profile business executives, economists and other experts who don’t think a US debt default is in the cards. 

Jeremy Siegel, Wharton finance professor 

“There is zero chance the debt issue will not get resolved even though there will be posturing and debate right up to the last minute before timelines are extended or the debt limit is raised,” Siegel said in his WisdomTree commentary this week.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO 

“The US should not and probably will not default,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told reporters on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.”Whatever it is, we will be prepared,” he added. 

“We still think the most likely outcome is a deal signed into law before the X-date, though we see the odds of passing that date without an increase in the ceiling at around 25% and rising,” Michael Feroli, the bank’s chief US economist, wrote in a Wednesday note.

Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO 

“I don’t foresee a situation where there would be default,” Schwarzman told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday. “That speaks to the US government paying principal and interest on a timely basis. If something were to happen, really as a miscalculation on the part of the people involved with the negotiations, I think it would hit domestic constituents in the US, which would put enormous pressure to have things resolved in a few days.” 

“So it’s a bit of a nail biter if you will, and we’d all like to see it resolved and it all will be resolved. The question is exactly when in that time period it is.” 

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer

“The markets and myself are putting a very high probability that something gets done,” Rieder said on Tuesday, according to Barrons.

“The timing of that isn’t that clear. And listen, when the president and the Speaker [Kevin McCarthy] talk about ‘you don’t have to be worried about default’ you should take them at their word— that we’re not going to get a default.”

Joe LaVorgna, SMBC Nikko Securities America chief economist

“It’s deja vu all over again, and it feels that way with the debt ceiling. We’ve been through this so many times. There are about five points where there’s a lot of overlap and ability to compromise. So a deal will get done,” LaVorgna told CNBC on Wednesday. 

“There won’t be a technical default, but it doesn’t mean we  won’t go to the last minute and the last minute isn’t necessarily June 1. I’m guessing it’s somewhere between June 1 and June 9. The reality is Treasury has a lot of ability to make this deadline later, but it becomes all political, but there will be something done.” 

Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon’s head of equities 

“We are assuming the debt ceiling gets signed. But when that happens, the Treasury issuance and the T-bill issuance from Treasury could cause a little bit of volatility,” Levine told CNBC on Wednesday. 

David Trainer, New Constructs CEO 

“I love the sensationalism of the debt ceiling but I think we’ve seen this show before, it always ends the same. We’re not going to default. It makes for good media. It makes for lots of clicks. But at the end of the day, I think it’s more distraction,” Trainer, who founded the investment research firm, told Fox Business on Wednesday.

Source: Business Insider

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