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Entry Submitted by David Harkness at 7:51 AM ET on July 4, 2023
I visited the Federal Treasury back office this morning.
The back office rates as at 30 June 2023 under EME(Emerging Market Economies) tied as one rate since 2012 consist of :
VND 0.4243c usd
IDR 0.6648c usd
IQD 0.1815c usd.
The Fed Treasury generally report weekly end but on the following Monday USA time 4.15pm
IMF report daily and have not reported since 30 June.
IMF have a back office value of Iraq Dinar 0.2511c usd
The Iraq mark rates are 14850 if this rate is used in a RV we have 4.850 dinar to I usd or 0.2061c yesterday.
I would expect the RV of the Iraq Dinar is around this price
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I have visited the CBI Web site to gather information to determine the real value of the Iraq Dinar.
As the figures are as at 23 April I can only determine a value at the Iraq Dinar at this date of 0.1770c usd per 1 Dinar.
Since then Iraq have been using USD to buy back on a daily basis Iraq Dinar since this date .
This in turn reduces Iraq Dinar issued off the market in the streets in exchange for USD .
In other words reduce money supply (M1) in order to try to increase value and have street rate become parity with official rate.
They have failed to get the street rate down to the official rate despite spending significant USD on the repurchase of Iraq Dinar in the country.
The CBI target RV rate is 3.10 dinar to 1 usd or 0.3225c usd , this is unlikely to be achieved
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It’s going to cost CBI around 8.7B USD to buy back 45trillion of Iraq currency held outside Iraq .
They need to redeem in gold that will extinguish most of the gold held by Iraq.
They now need the RV to meet their infrastructure commitments and can’t do this unless RV happens.
The oil price has moved to usd 76.30 usd per barrel their budget is 70.00 per barrel the price needs to go to 80.00 a barrel to extinguish their deficit of 48.5b usd this will take 3.75 years at current production levels .
All three currencies need to RV at the same time with Iraq continuing to hold up the process at great cost to their people .
It seems RV rate has been agreed around 20c usd and this may be released by 12.55am London time either 4 July or same time following day 5 July.
David Harkness
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