Japan’s Catastrophic Debt and the Inevitable Collapse of the Yen Fiat Currency
On July 28, 2023
When I first launched GCR Real-Time News last year, I began by discussing how the Yen would likely be the first major currency to collapse ahead of the introduction and implementation of Our GCR. I still believe this today, so it’s time to revisit and update the current situation.
The Japanese Yen could be the first fiat currency to collapse and trigger a worldwide financial crash due to the country’s unsustainable debt problem, coupled with a lack of effective economic reforms and a dependency on aggressive, and failing, monetary policies.
Given Japan’s position as the third-largest economy globally and its extensive international financial linkages, the collapse of the Japanese Yen could have significant contagion effects on other major economies. The inter-connectedness of the global financial system could amplify the impact of a Japanese Yen collapse, potentially triggering a worldwide financial crash.
All the Financial Reasons in a Nutshell
- Unsustainable Debt Burden: Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 265% is the highest among major global economies, making it an outlier in terms of fiscal responsibility. The sheer magnitude of debt creates an immense financial burden on the government, raising concerns about its ability to service the interest payments in the long run.
- Perpetual Debt Trap: Japan finds itself in a perpetual debt trap, where borrowing to pay off ever-growing interest repayments creates a vicious cycle. The constant need for borrowing to cover debt obligations reduces the government’s ability to invest in growth-oriented initiatives and exacerbates the debt problem further.
- Diminished Fiscal Flexibility: The BOJ’s aggressive and failing monetary policies, including negative interest rates and bond purchases, have left the central bank with limited tools to combat economic downturns effectively. With interest rates already near zero, the BOJ lacks the necessary firepower to stimulate the economy if a crisis occurs.
- Limited Economic Reforms: Despite decades of economic challenges, Japan has struggled to implement significant reforms to improve productivity and boost economic growth. The lack of structural changes and innovation in the economy hinders Japan’s ability to break free from the debt burden and achieve sustainable growth.
- Risk of Default: The significant gap between Japan’s debt level and its tax revenue raises the risk of default, especially if interest rates rise even slightly. If investors lose confidence in the Japanese Yen and demand higher yields on government bonds, the cost of servicing the debt could become unsustainable, leading to a crisis.
- Contagion Effects: Given Japan’s position as the third-largest economy globally and its extensive international financial linkages, the collapse of the Japanese Yen could have significant contagion effects on other major economies. The interdependence of the global financial system could amplify the impact of a Japanese Yen collapse, potentially triggering a worldwide financial crash.
Japan’s desperate financial and economic situation, characterized by an unsustainable debt burden, perpetual debt trap, limited fiscal flexibility, and insufficient economic reforms, poses significant risks to the stability of the Japanese Yen. The combination of these factors makes the Japanese Yen a potential candidate to be the first fiat currency to collapse and could have far-reaching implications, potentially triggering a global financial crash.
As with all of the major fiat currency nations globally today, Japan’s future hinges on its ability to break free from the shackles of unsustainable fiat debt System and steer the nation towards a more stable and prosperous future by joining in the global movement towards adoption of an asset-backed currency and the elimination of central bank monetary policy manipulation and corruption.
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