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This compilation of financial-related insights includes videos from RJ Talks, Steven Van Metre, Mark Moss, David Lin, and Tech Revolution.
RJ Talks discusses the trouble at Charles Schwab after closing shops are now dealing with customer flight. Steven Van Metre says a major stock market shock will hit on Monday. Mark Moss talks about central banks giving up on 2% inflation targets. Amir Goren joins David Lin to discuss the next market crash will be triggered by a Fed pivot. Tech Revolution shares news of Western sanctions on Russia are failing as Europe desperately needs Russian gas.
RJ Talks
Sep 17, 2023
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for this coming Tuesday and Wedensday, the FOMC members will be meeting behind closed doors to decide the fate of the US economic policy. We review what two of the largest investment banks believe the Federal Reserve will do. If they will hike, pause or cut interest rates at this meeting.
We also look at the bond market, and how bank deposits continue to flood into US treasury bonds and money market funds. Both of which are on track to set new inflow records. We discuss the thoughts of a leading financial analyst and how he believes this is a strong signal of recession, and a hard landing for the end of 2023.
Additionally we cover the recent Charles Schwab news, how more problems continue to follow the big bank brokerage. Last month Schwab announced closing offices and layoffs to save money and cut costs. Well this past Friday they released their monthly update, and informed their shareholders of more bad news. Make sure to watch the video to find out what happened.
Steven Van Metre
Sep 17, 2023
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A Major Market Shock Hits Monday (And You’ve Been Warned)
Mark Moss
Sep 17, 2023
Central Banks have mandates to control the monetary order, for example, the US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: stable prices and full employment. So legally, they are to manage the monetary system to keep prices stable, But how do they manage stable prices?…by an arbitrary number, by focusing on 2% inflation, and… as hard as the Central Banks around the world have tried to fight inflation, it looks like some of the central banks might be ready to throw in the towel and give up on the 2% number!
So in this video, I will break down: Which central banks are on the verge, What exactly they said, Where the US Federal Reserve sits on this, and what asset prices are doing in response to this. …and of course, I will discuss some of my favorite ways to play this as it all unfolds.
David Lin
Sep 17, 2023
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Amir Goren, fund manager of the Economic Defense Fund, discusses his research on the relationship between the Fed’s monetary policy and stock markets.
*This video was recorded on September 15, 2023
Tech Revolution
Sep 17, 2023
Despite the surging imports of Russian liquefied natural gas into the European Union, there is currently no immediate intention to enforce a ban. This stance, shared by Spain’s energy minister, Teresa Ribera, is primarily driven by apprehension over the potential consequences of such a move, particularly the risk of triggering another surge in gas prices.
The Russian energy sector has experienced a significant decline in revenue, primarily as a result of comprehensive economic sanctions imposed by Western powers in response to the Russia and Ukraine incident. However, it’s important to note that LNG exports to Europe continue to be a lucrative source of income for Russia, contributing billions of dollars to its economy.
In emphasizing the EU’s reluctance to impose a hasty ban on Russian LNG, Teresa Ribera draws attention to the collective memory of Europe’s energy crisis from the previous year. This crisis had a profound impact, leaving a lingering sense of unease and a heightened awareness of the need for energy security. The fear of repeating such a crisis looms large in the decision-making process.
Currently, Spain holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, granting it a unique position to influence and steer the decision-making process within the EU. This role allows Spain to contribute to shaping the EU’s response to the ongoing challenges in the energy sector, including the delicate issue of Russian LNG imports.
From January to July this year, European Russia LNG imports have shot up by a whopping 40%, even compared to the pre-Ukraine war era in 2021. It’s like they’re stuck in a love-hate relationship with this gas, despite the EU’s 2027 breakup plans. They’ve already kicked Russian crude oil to the curb, but the LNG taps remain open.
Teresa Ribera, Spain’s energy guru, drops hints that a gas ban might be on the horizon, but for now, Europe’s playing the waiting game. They want to see if Russia and Ukraine can make up and clear the tension between them.
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Last year, when energy prices soared like a rocket, European industries hit the brakes on production. It was like trying to put out a fire with gasoline, and it even sent Germany’s economic engine sputtering into a mild recession during the winter.
During the initial eight months of the year 2023, Russia witnessed a startling decline in its income generated from the oil and gas sector, with a staggering plunge of 38.1% compared to the same period in the previous year.
This sharp drop is akin to a financial earthquake, shaking the foundations of Russia’s energy economy. The primary culprits behind this precipitous decline are two formidable adversaries: lower prices and a notable slump in sales. The once-robust prices for oil and gas, which have historically fueled Russia’s revenue stream, have now retreated, eroding the profitability of the nation’s energy exports.
Alongside, a downturn in sales volumes has worsened the situation, as reduced demand from global markets has taken a toll on Russia’s financial balance sheet.
This union of adverse factors has left Russia’s financial report pockmarked with significant losses. The 38.1% drop in income serves as a stark reminder of the volatility that characterizes the energy sector and the profound impact it can have on the economic fortunes of nations heavily reliant on these resources.
At this point, Russia, a global energy heavyweight, finds itself grappling with the formidable challenge of adapting to this new economic landscape. But don’t loosen your grip on those wallets just yet, because Russian liquefied natural gas remains a financial goldmine, raking in billions for the nation.
Experts at the Brussels-based think tank, Bruegel, have crunched the numbers, and the results are eye-popping. Between March 2022 and this February alone, Europe collectively coughed up a jaw-dropping sum of 12 billion euros. That’s a colossal $12.85 billion paid to Russia in exchange for their LNG.
This staggering figure underscores the enduring profitability of Russian LNG exports, highlighting the substantial sums involved in the energy trade. Despite the geopolitical tensions and shifting energy dynamics, it appears that Russian LNG continues to flow as a lucrative revenue stream for the nation. In addition to all of that, Spain has snagged the silver medal as the world’s second-largest buyer of Russian LNG. But guess what? They’re not thrilled about it.
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