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Tishwash:
urgent Does 2024 need a budget amendment? A Sudanese advisor answers
A financial advisor to Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani revealed the extent of the possibility of the need for legislation or amendment next year, 2024, to the tripartite financial budget approved by Parliament last June.
Mazhar Muhammad Saleh told {Al-Furat News} agency, “The Federal General Budget Law of the Republic of Iraq No. 13 of 2023 represents an integrated financial plan for three years 2023, 2024 and 2025, and therefore there is no need for any new financial legislation, unless financial and economic conditions arise that require the adoption of what is required.” Adding or amending some constants and variables here and there, the government can go to the House of Representatives to approve the required partial amendments if the urgent need arises.”
Saleh added, “But until now, the financial indicators for the fiscal year 2024 show that they are stable, and that the legislation available for the tripartite federal general budget is currently sufficient.”
At dawn on June 12, the House of Representatives approved the draft financial budget law for the current year 2023 and the following years 2024 and 2025.
It is noteworthy that, on March 13, the Council of Ministers approved the largest financial budget in the country’s history, which exceeded 197 trillion and 828 billion Iraqi dinars (about 152.2 billion dollars), with a total deficit amounting to 63 trillion Iraqi dinars, taking advantage of the rise in oil prices, which constitutes more than 95 percent. % of the country’s financial revenues. link
A Chinese visa for the citizens of Kurdistan soon and a modern park in Erbil.. A meeting between the governor and the consul
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The Governor of Erbil, Omid Khoshnaw, confirmed on Sunday the issuance of travel visas to China for citizens of the region early next year, during his meeting with the Chinese Consul General in Erbil, Liu Jun, while the two parties discussed the establishment of a large park with a modern design, in the center of the city.
Statement by Erbil Governorate
On Sunday, the Governor of Erbil, Omid Khoshnaw, received Liu Jun, the Chinese Consul General. In the meeting, which was attended by the Mayor of Erbil and the Director of Erbil Parks and Gardens Engineering, the Chinese Consul General praised the progress and prosperity witnessed by Erbil and pointed out that Erbil is a historical and ancient city, and expressed his hope for That long-term friendly relations between the Kurds and China and relations between the Kurdistan region and its country develop in all fields (trade, industry, agriculture, and tourism).
For his part, the Governor of Erbil welcomed the consul and said, “China, as a major global trading country, and the presence of its companies in Erbil is important to us, and our desire is to continue developing relations with China. We confirm that, as always, our doors are open to all Chinese companies and investors, and if they want to work in Erbil, we will provide them with all Facilities.”
In another topic of the meeting, in addition to discussing the procedures for issuing Chinese visas by the Chinese Consulate, all preparations were made to issue Chinese visas to citizens in Erbil starting in the new year, and a project to build a large park with a modern design and Chinese style with an area of (15 thousand square meters) was discussed. Square) by the Chinese Consulate and under the supervision of the Erbil Governorate, and construction will begin soon. For this purpose, and in addition to identifying several places to implement the project, the Governor thanked the Chinese Consulate for its initiative and appreciated its work, which will be a beautiful gift from China to Erbil in the future. He stressed that the establishment of this park will support the environment. Healthy and increases the amount of green spaces in Erbil.
Then the Chinese Consul General officially invited the Governor of Erbil to visit China and the provinces of his country and expressed his desire for Erbil to become a sister province to his country. For his part, the Governor of Erbil accepted the Chinese Consul’s invitation and expressed his hope that the agreement would be signed between the city of Erbil and its sister Chinese provinces in as soon as possible.
In conclusion, the two sides expressed their readiness for any cooperation, coordination and facilitation to ensure the success of their work and joint projects. link
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CandyKisses:
jp Morgan strengthens 5 Iraqi banks
A government source said on Saturday that negotiations took place during the past days between the Central Bank and the American side, to facilitate procedures for foreign transfers, while referring to an agreement to strengthen the advance balance of 5 Iraqi banks in dollars through (jp morgan).
Intensive meetings took place in Abu Dhabi in the past few days between a delegation from the Central Bank of Iraq and the US side responsible for foreign transfers to cover imports.
The negotiations culminated in a number of decisions and mechanisms that contribute to facilitating procedures for foreign transfers related to imports through the foreign currency sale window.
It was agreed to strengthen a pre- balance of five Iraqi banks in their dollar accounts with Jordanian banks and remittances through (jp morgan).
Problems with rejected transfers were resolved and it was agreed that the rejection of transfers was based on strong reasons.
Other meetings brought together one of the UAE banks, the Central Bank of Iraq and the American side to implement the mechanism of enhancing balances in the UAE dirham for Iraqi banks (UAE Dirham pilot).
All technical details have been resolved and the mechanism of enhancing balances in UAE dirhams is expected to begin within the next few days.
There are serious negotiations that have reached their final stages to strengthen the balances of some Iraqi banks in euros at UBAF Bank (UBAF) to finance trade with the European Union.
The number of banks whose assets are being strengthened in Chinese yuan through the Singapore Development Bank has been increased.
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Opening accounts for six Iraqi banks in this bank and during the coming period, 7 other banks will be added to finance Iraqi trade and imports from China, where those imports are estimated at about 12 billion dollars annually.
This mechanism is expected to contribute to financing Iraq’s imports from India, especially medicines and food, which are estimated at $3 billion.
The Central Bank achieves one of the main objectives of monetary policy in 2023
Economy News-Baghdad
The objectives of the monetary policy of the Central Bank are to achieve economic growth and stability, and one of its main objectives is to reduce inflation rates and stabilize the prices of goods and services in very complex economic, security and political conditions in 2023 that the world is going through, especially the countries of the geographical region, in which our country is negatively and positively affected.
And that these conditions have been suffered by our economy for decades and the reason is the rentier economy and the dependence of 93% as a rate of the general budget on oil, which constitutes about 60% of GDP, while the active economic sectors, namely agriculture, constitute 4.7% and industry does not exceed 2%, which are indicators that led to the lack of local production that covers the consumer need of citizens in food and other basic materials, so the dependence was almost entirely on imports for the commercial private sector and from different origins,
BAnd successive governments could not Control of internal trade and regulation of foreign trade and weak control over illegal trade and informal border crossings, which led to the impact of the monetary and commercial market and the prices of food and necessary materials for citizens at high rates during the years 2021 and 2022, so this indicator was the most prominent challenge that faced monetary policy and directly affected the stability of the exchange rate, which led the Central Bank to take many measures in cooperation with the government in 2023 to regulate foreign trade and control control over foreign remittances.
And regularity in the global financial and banking system by developing the electronic platform and working on preparing and launching a new strategy for reform and banking classification in all its basic episodes at the level of internal and external banking transactions, the most prominent of which is securing the US dollar for large and registered traders and for each trader, regardless of his classification at the official price through the platform exclusively, which helped to reduce prices
This was achieved through the analysis of the annual inflation rate indicators for 2023, which was published by the Central Bank compared to the annual inflation rates for 2022 achieved in Iraq and in regional countries, where it is clear from official data that the annual inflation rate reached 3.7% in 2023 and 4.4% in 2022, and that most other countries with unstable economies reached Inflation rates have very high rates, reaching 80.2% in Turkey, 117.4% in Sudan, 40.0% in Iran, 9.3%, 9.0% and 5.0% respectively in Egypt, and ranged
in the Gulf countries with stable economies and rich in oil between (2.4-4.8%).
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Maintaining the general level of prices of goods and services is currently working to achieve other goals, which are the stability of the exchange rate and the maintenance of foreign reserves covering the local currency in circulation and imports, which exceeded 100 billion dollars.
Therefore, the economic results and outputs confirm that the policies and measures carried out by the Central Bank this year have achieved an important goal of achieving stability in the monetary system, which is an important step in achieving the other objectives of monetary policy.
Source: Dinar Recaps
Tishwash:
In Iraq’s news
Will the BRICS+ group of countries change the world?
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (emerging market economies known as BRICS) accounted for 19% of global GDP on a purchasing power parity basis in 2001 .
Currently, the share that includes countries scheduled to join the bloc is 36%, and the percentage is expected to rise to 45% by 2040, more than double the share of the economies of the Group of Seven major advanced industrial countries .
The rapid rise of the BRICS group is changing the global economy. Member states generally have less democracy and freedom than advanced economies, and growing economic weight could result in a massive shift in influence. Despite this, the bloc lacks homogeneity, which will stand in the way of the ambitious goals of some of the group’s countries, such as competing with the US dollar for its dominant role globally.
The name BRICS began when Jim O’Neill, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs at the time, set two criteria for membership, the first of which was that countries must have a truly large economy and be prepared to grow rapidly. Brazil, Russia, India and China came to the fore. In an added bonus, the first letters of the names of these countries represent an abbreviation for the attractive bloc .
The idea proved to be hugely successful. The original BRICS group achieved remarkable growth during the first decade of this century. In an unusual example from a geopolitical standpoint, they united to form a bloc, which South Africa joined in 2010, based on a recommendation contained in a research note from a Wall Street bank .
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During August of this year, the BRICS group invited 6 other countries to join the bloc: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates .
There is no new abbreviation for the economic group’s name, but the name will likely be changed to BRICS +. Those joining the group also expand O’Neill’s original membership criteria, but there remain other, more qualified candidates outside the bloc .
Indonesia, for example, has not yet joined the BRICS+ group, but its economy is larger than Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, and it is likely to outgrow two of the three countries. Nigeria and Thailand both outperformed Iran on O’Neill’s two criteria. Mexico and Turkey are ahead of Argentina. The same applies to Bangladesh when compared with Ethiopia .
The meaning is clear. The expansion of BRICS is less about economics and more about politics. As for the engines of expansion, it is related to challenging the hegemony of the United States of America, getting rid of the dollar as the main currency in the world, and establishing alternative institutions to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, whose headquarters are located in Washington .
Can the BRICS group achieve this goal? The group has several advantages: size, diversity and ambition .
First, the enlarged BRICS is actually larger than the Group of Seven major industrialized nations, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. During 2022, the bloc represented 36% of the global economy, compared to 30% for the group of economically developed countries. Our projections indicate that the expanding workforce and huge scope for technological catch-up will expand the BRICS+ share to 45% by 2040, compared to 21% for the G7 economies. In practice, BRICS+ and the G7 will exchange positions in relative size until 2040. Enjoying economic weight will also mean enjoying political influence .
Second, the bloc’s membership will include some of the world’s largest oil exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran) and some of its largest importers (China and India). If the adoption of currencies other than the dollar to settle some oil deals succeeds, this may indirectly affect the US currency’s share of international trade and global foreign exchange reserves .
Third, it has become clear that weakening the dollar’s dominance is one of the ambitions of BRICS+. China has sought greatly to strengthen the role of the yuan in global trade. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called on the bloc to find an alternative to the US dollar, while Russia believes that directing the economic reorganization process towards China and away from Europe constitutes the only rational option as it continues its war on Ukraine. Because of the sanctions, Moscow actually sells oil to China in yuan .
However, looking deeper than the surface, BRICS+ also faces some challenges ahead.
BRICS+ is already big and growing; But China’s debt problem and a corrective movement in the property market mean that one of the group’s main drivers is dissipating. The bloc’s emergence over the current century is largely due to the story of Beijing’s astonishing economic growth at an average of 9% per year during the period 2000-2019. This rate is likely to decline to 4.5% during the 2020s, 3% in the 1930s, and 2% in the fourth decade. India may also suffer from some recession, but its economic rise and political ambition are unlikely to match those of China .
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BRICS includes oil exporting and oil importing countries as members, but some of them conduct oil deals in US dollars. Producing countries Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates peg their currencies to the dollar and need US currency reserves to support their financial positions. Even without a peg, the majority of countries – unless they are subject to sanctions such as Iran or Russia – prefer payments in dollars as the most acceptable trading medium in international trade .
There is hesitation in the BRICS group of countries to promote an alternative currency. Russia does not want to obtain the rupee from India in exchange for its oil, because it does not want to accumulate its savings in India. But what if India makes payments to Russia in Chinese yuan? Here the geopolitical competition between New Delhi and Beijing emerges. As the former will not want to promote the use of the Chinese yuan in global trade .
Finally, the enlarged bloc lacks consensus and cohesion; India is suffering from a renewed border dispute with China. Tensions may worsen as India rises and China declines .
Saudi Arabia and Iran recently resumed diplomatic relations. But a deep division resulting from proxy wars may require difficulty to bridge. New Delhi and Riyadh also signed – along with the UAE – a memorandum of understanding with the United States of America and Europe to establish an economic corridor that competes with China’s “Belt and Road” initiative .
What about alternative institutions to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank? Again, this will likely remain more of an aspiration than a reality. The New Development Bank, the BRICS affiliate similar to the World Bank, spent a small amount of money. The BRICS emergency reserve arrangement mechanism, which is supposed to be a competitor to the IMF, is small and of limited use .
The idea of a single BRICS currency, with a unified monetary policy, seems unlikely, especially at the present time. Brazil cuts interest rates while Russia raises them sharply; While the UAE and Saudi Arabia mimic everything that the US Federal Reserve does. When we see the Eurozone facing difficulties in light of a unified currency and monetary policy, the BRICS group of countries may not be able to find a unified currency according to the “one size for all” rule from the beginning .
This does not mean that the surprising rise of the BRICS group will be without repercussions on the global economy. The center of gravity will shift to the east and south, where governments enjoy low levels of democracy, popular representation, and intervene more in markets compared to the West .
Within the BRICS+ group of countries, only Argentina, Brazil and South Africa were rated “free” by Freedom House last year. India was described as “partly free,” while China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE were described as “not free.” When we measure the contribution to global GDP from countries classified as “partly free” or “not free,” we find that it has increased from 24% in 1990 to 49% in 2022. Our expectations indicate that this percentage will increase to 62% by 2040 .
Things look even bleaker for advocates of liberal markets. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative US think tank, rates almost all BRICS+ economies as “mostly unfree” or worse. While the economies of the Group of Seven major industrialized nations were classified as “mostly free” or “relatively free .”
But the contribution to global GDP by economies classified by the Heritage Foundation as “mostly unfree” or “repressed” actually jumped from 27% in 1995 to 44% in 2022, and by 2040 our expectations indicate that it will rise to 56%. %.
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The BRICS group of countries will change the world, but this may be due more to their growing share of GDP and diverging political and economic systems than to fulfill the grand plans of their decision-makers link
Source: Dinar Recaps
Candykisses:
Hundreds demonstrate in Sulaymaniyah to demand payment of their 3-month-old salaries
Baghdad Today – Sulaymaniyah
Hundreds of employees and teaching staff demonstrated on Sunday (November 12, 2023) in the city of Sulaymaniyah to demand the payment of their salaries delayed for 3 months.
The correspondent of “Baghdad Today” said that “hundreds of protesters in Sulaymaniyah renewed their demonstrations in the center of the city in protest against the non-payment of their delayed salaries for three months,” noting that “the demonstrations were with the participation of school students who demanded the assumption of work, as well as the participation of dozens of employees in different ministries.”
He pointed out that “the protesting students headed towards the building of the Directorate of Education of Sulaymaniyah,” noting that “the demonstrations witnessed the imposition of strict security measures represented by cutting off the public road between Salem Street and Kirkuk highway.”
Tishwash:
Expectations of a change in the price of a barrel of oil in the 2024 budget
Financial expert, Salah Nouri, expected a change in the price of Yarmil oil in the 2024 budget.
Nouri said {to Al-Furat News}: “There is little possibility of changing the price of a barrel of oil, because basically the Ministry of Finance approves the price of selling oil as a conservative one, that is, it is lower than the international price by about (10) dollars.”
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He added, “With regard to the possible need to approve the 2024 budget law, despite the approval of the tripartite budget, there is an urgent need for it to be approved by the House of Representatives.”
Nouri pointed out, “The approval will take place if the Ministry of Finance amends some articles of the 2024 budget that was previously approved. The House of Representatives will only discuss the amended paragraphs, and thus it will not delay in approving them.”
A financial advisor to Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani revealed to Al-Furat News the extent of the possibility of the need next year 2024 for legislation or amendment to the tripartite financial budget approved by Parliament last June.
Mazhar Muhammad Salih believes that the Federal General Budget Law of the Republic of Iraq No. 13 of 2023 represents an integrated financial plan for three years 2023, 2024 and 2025, and therefore there is no need for any new financial legislation, unless new financial and economic conditions arise that require the adoption of what requires an addition or Amending some constants and variables here and there. The government can go to the House of Representatives to approve the required partial amendments if the urgent need arises.
At dawn on June 12, the House of Representatives approved the draft financial budget law for the current year 2023 and the following years 2024 and 2025.
It is noteworthy that, on March 13, the Council of Ministers approved the largest financial budget in the country’s history, which exceeded 197 trillion and 828 billion Iraqi dinars (about 152.2 billion dollars), with a total deficit amounting to 63 trillion Iraqi dinars, taking advantage of the rise in oil prices, which constitutes more than 95 percent. % of the country’s financial revenues. link
Source: Dinar Recaps
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