This compilation of financial insights includes videos from Palisades Gold Radio, Tech Revolution, and Liberty and Finance.
Mark Magarian, Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments joins Palisades Gold Radio to discuss bonds presenting an asymmetric setup for gold to outperform. Tech Revolution shares news of China ending Russian sanctions with a record breaking move. Adrian Day, founder of Adrian Day Asset Management and Lobo Tiggre, founder of Independent Speculator joins Liberty and Finance to talk about a new gold run amid the recession.
Palisades Gold Radio
Nov 16, 2023
Tom welcomes back Mark Magarian, Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments. They discuss the yield curve inversion and its historical track record of eventually un-inverting. He expressed optimism for gold and investing in gold-mining companies, citing their current low valuations and potential for significant returns.
He emphasized the importance of timing and finding asymmetric bets in investments, as well as doing thorough research on companies trading at a discount to intrinsic value.
Mark also discussed the caution needed when investing in Greenfield projects and the importance of free cashflow and profitability in investments.
He shared his bullish view on energy, particularly oil and gas, and stressed the importance of cashflow as the ultimate king in investing. Additionally, he advised staying agnostic in investment decisions and not being swayed by biases or hype in certain sectors. Mark recommended finding a competent financial advisor for investment advice.
Nov 16, 2023
The aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has prompted significant shifts in the global energy landscape, with China emerging as a key economic ally for Russia. This strategic partnership is not merely a business move but a game-changer with real-world implications.
China has taken on the role of a superhero economic ally, actively aiding Russia in navigating Western sanctions. Beyond purchasing Russian oil and gas, China is facilitating their transport using super tankers and providing insurance coverage. This move secures a significant portion of Russia’s crude exports, around 15%, and marks a strategic shift in the energy game.
Despite efforts to block Russia’s access to American-made technology, Russia has found a workaround by acquiring U.S. semiconductors through deals with smaller Chinese players. This demonstrates a clever approach to ensuring tech resilience and navigating export controls.
To circumvent financial sanctions, China and Russia are increasingly utilizing the yuan for their trades. This strategic move includes the expansion of local payment systems by their financial institutions, further reducing dependence on traditional Western currencies.
Examining Western Sanctions:
The Western sanctions imposed on China and Russia have triggered a complex game of economic warfare. Unlike historical instances with Iran and the Soviet Union, the West aims to impact Moscow while keeping some trade doors open. The use of an oil price cap is a tool to trim Russia’s revenue without causing global market chaos, but Russia’s shift to non-Western insurance for half its oil challenges this control.
The Gazprom-China Collaboration:
Recent collaboration between Russia’s Gazprom and China in building a new gas pipeline in the Far East signifies a monumental global move. This lifeline for China’s energy needs is a testament to the strengthening ties between the two nations. The pipeline, connecting a Russian city to one in Northeast China, represents a collaborative effort between companies on both sides, ensuring a steady flow of energy.
Future Pipeline Projects:
The ongoing energy partnership between China and Russia extends to future projects like the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, set to go online in 2030. This pipeline, involving China, Russia, and Mongolia, adds to the existing infrastructure and enhances energy security by providing more options for gas supply.
Unable to fulfill all its needs from the West, Russia turned to China for various commodities, including gadgets and luxury items. While the West believed it was exerting pressure on Russia, this strategy backfired, leading to an unexpected strengthening of the Russo-Chinese economic alliance.
Tech and Defense Dilemma:
In the realm of technology and defense, the West imposed limits on the sale of crucial items. However, this approach triggered a surge in smuggling, enabling Russia to acquire essential components, often from China. Even microchips in Russian military equipment were sourced from the West, underscoring the resilience of the supply chain.
Challenges in Enforcement:
Enforcing these restrictions posed a challenge, especially when it came to identifying and penalizing rule-breakers. Originally designed to target wealthy Russians and companies, the rules inadvertently placed a burden on Western businesses, as banks struggled to ensure compliance while companies found ways to navigate the constraints.
Unplayed Economic Card:
Surprisingly, the U.S. possesses a significant economic card that has yet to be played – oil. Despite being a major player in the oil industry since 2010, the U.S. has refrained from using this leverage to exert pressure on Russia, raising questions about the potential impact of such a move.
The evolving economic dynamics between China and Russia, especially in the energy sector, showcase a strategic alliance that goes beyond traditional business dealings. These moves not only address the challenges posed by Western sanctions but also pave the way for a more resilient and secure energy future for both nations. The collaborative efforts on various pipeline projects underscore the depth of this strategic partnership, offering diverse paths for natural gas utilization and enhancing overall energy security in an unpredictable world.
Liberty and Finance
Premiered Nov 16, 2023
We are headed for a significant turn in the gold market, says Adrian Day and Lobo Tiggre. As the economy heads into a recession, both analysts are expecting gold stocks to perform exceedingly well. However, there is likely to be a downturn in gold stocks in the short-term due to tax-loss selling. Adrian Day is the founder of Adrian Day Asset Management, and Lobo Tiggre is the founder of Independent Speculator.
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