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We were thrilled to have Greg Weldon, the publisher of Global Macro Strategy Report and the Gold Guru, back on the Palisades Gold Radio show with our host, Tom Bodrovics. With over 40 years of experience in financial markets and commodity trading, Greg shared his unique insights on the US markets, with a particular focus on the economy and consumer spending.
Greg expressed concerns about economic stress, despite the celebratory employment reports. He emphasized that labor market conditions are worsening, with rising unemployment, underemployment, and declining savings rates. Consumers are facing increasing credit card and auto loan delinquencies, while disposable income decreases and government handouts account for an expanding share. Greg suggested that the economy might already be rolling over, and the Fed would like to see asset prices decrease before declaring victory in inflation, despite the policy rate being higher than current inflation.
One of the significant concerns Greg highlighted was commercial real estate. The Fed seems to be behind the curve, and there is a massive amount of commercial real estate debt due in the next 12 months. Regional banks hold 80% of that debt, which could lead to bank failures if not handled properly.
Greg also discussed the challenges Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces in maintaining an apolitical stance during the divisive US e******n year and the potential social unrest leading to economic negatives. He mentioned that the Fed might be showing a willingness to accept higher general rates of inflation to protect consumers and the economy despite the risks of inducing a credit crunch.
During the discussion, Greg touched upon potential catalysts for the U.S. dollar’s next round of debasement. He discussed the implications of a consumer wake-up call in the stock market or another Plaza Accord-like agreement among major global powers. Natural events, climate change, and geopolitical conflicts could also impact currencies and commodities, particularly gold.
In summary, Greg Weldon’s insights on the Palisades Gold Radio show provided a sobering perspective on the US markets, focusing on the economy and consumer spending. His warnings about economic stress, commercial real estate, and the potential for higher inflation should be heeded by investors. As always, we appreciate Greg’s expertise and look forward to his next appearance on the show.
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