Ariel (@Prolotario1): Pros and Cons of a Rate Change this Week for Iraq

Ariel
@Prolotario1

Iraqi Dinar Update

What are the Pros & Cons Of A Rate Change This Week?

Pros: Urgent salary needs, Article 12’s timing, and potential oil price softening (e.g., $65 fears) push for a stronger dinar to maximize revenue. Past CBI action (2023) shows willingness to adjust under pressure.

If exports start mid-week and oil prices wobble, the CBI might act by February 23 to preempt losses, especially with salaries due soon. Rough Guess 40–50% chance, assuming exports trigger immediate fiscal strain.

Cons: CBI’s cautious approach, logistical delays (pipeline readiness), and the option to tap reserves or borrow reduce urgency.

No official CBI statement ties exports to an imminent rate shift. Odds Dampeners: A week is tight for policy shifts rate changes typically follow weeks of deliberation unless crisis-level (e.g., 2020’s oil crash).

Rough Guess: 50–60% chance they hold off, monitoring export impacts first.

The odds lean slightly against an immediate change (say, 45% for, 55% against) due to CBI inertia and logistical unknowns, but they’re close to even because the USD oil pricing and salary crunch create real pressure.

If exports flow this week and markets signal oil price risks, the odds tilt higher maybe 60% as Iraq’s economy can’t easily absorb losses.

Alright, those of you locked into Iraq, here is the Gazette featuring the recently amended budget law. This starts the 60-day timeline for the oil to flow and the consultant to do its work in setting the final Price Per Barrel minus the $16 prepayment. 👇

➡️… pic.twitter.com/GdRCKG4kDK

— Red✨ (@RedMGthaOG) February 18, 2025

You all are reading this wrong.

This doesn’t confirm a 60-day deadline for changing Iraq’s exchange rate. It actually refers to a 60-day period needed to start Kurdistan’s oil exports after the amendment.

Any exchange rate change would depend on economic conditions, oil prices, and fiscal needs, not a fixed timeline from the gazette’s publication. So, the idea of a strict 60-day window for the rate change is incorrect.

They can not afford to go on a hardline 60 days based on current conditions due to the oil prices which fluctuate. Especially considering the 65$ figure which would immediately preempt Iraq to adjust the rate which is not contingent upon waiting after 60 days.

Given Iraq’s heavy reliance on oil revenue for funding public sector salaries and addressing fiscal deficits, an immediate need to stabilize or strengthen the dinar could arise if oil prices fluctuate or if there’s pressure from the parallel market rates.

The urgency to address these economic pressures could prompt an earlier rate adjustment. Which can happen at anytime. Especially given current conditions.

Source(s):
https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/1891828972423463182
https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/1891835306346770644

______________________________________________________

If you wish to contact the author of a post, you can send us an email at voyagesoflight@gmail.com and we’ll forward your request to the author (if available). If you have any questions about a post or the website, you may also forward your questions and concerns to the same email address.
______________________________________________________

All articles, videos, and images posted on Dinar Chronicles were submitted by readers and/or handpicked by the site itself for informational and/or entertainment purposes.

Dinar Chronicles is not a registered investment adviser, broker dealer, banker or currency dealer and as such, no information on the website should be construed as investment advice. We do not support, represent or guarantee the completeness, truthfulness, accuracy, or reliability of any content or communications posted on this site. Information posted on this site may or may not be fictitious. We do not intend to and are not providing financial, legal, tax, political or any other advice to readers of this website.

Copyright © Dinar Chronicles