Following a disappointing first quarter, the question on everyone’s mind is: are we officially in a recession? According to Patrick Higgins, a Policy Advisor, Economist, and the creator of the GDPNow model at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the answer isn’t so straightforward.
In a recent interview with David Lin, Higgins shed light on the Atlanta Fed’s projection for Q2 2025. While a negative Q1 performance raised concerns, Higgins’s team is forecasting a significant rebound, projecting a robust 2.4% economic growth for the second quarter.
However, Higgins also emphasized the importance of understanding the nuances of economic forecasting. He highlighted the methodological distinction between “hard” economic data, such as manufacturing output and retail sales, and “soft” data, like consumer confidence surveys.
The accuracy of economic projections depends heavily on the type of data used and the models employed. The GDPNow model at the Atlanta Fed, known for its real-time tracking of economic activity, relies heavily on hard data, providing a relatively accurate and up-to-date assessment of economic growth.
While the projected 2.4% growth in Q2 is certainly encouraging, Higgins cautioned against complacency. “It’s crucial to monitor the data closely as it evolves,” he stressed. “Economic conditions can change rapidly, and it’s vital to remain vigilant and adapt our outlook as new information becomes available.”
So, will Q2 officially pull the US economy out of a recession? Based on the Atlanta Fed’s current forecast, the answer is likely yes. However, the situation remains fluid. Keeping a close eye on incoming economic data, particularly hard data, will be critical in determining the true trajectory of the US economy in the months to come. While economists like Higgins offer valuable insights, the future, as always, remains subject to change.
______________________________________________________
If you wish to contact the author of a post, you can send us an email at voyagesoflight@gmail.com and we’ll forward your request to the author (if available). If you have any questions about a post or the website, you may also forward your questions and concerns to the same email address.
______________________________________________________
All articles, videos, and images posted on Dinar Chronicles were submitted by readers and/or handpicked by the site itself for informational and/or entertainment purposes.
Dinar Chronicles is not a registered investment adviser, broker dealer, banker or currency dealer and as such, no information on the website should be construed as investment advice. We do not support, represent or guarantee the completeness, truthfulness, accuracy, or reliability of any content or communications posted on this site. Information posted on this site may or may not be fictitious. We do not intend to and are not providing financial, legal, tax, political or any other advice to readers of this website.
Copyright © Dinar Chronicles
