Ariel
@Prolotario1
Iraqi Dinar Update
Status of Listed Events in July 2025:
Basel III Endgame: Phase-in commenced July 1, 2025, with full compliance by July 1, 2028; focuses on capital requirements for large banks, increasing operational risk buffers by 9% for G-SIBs.
Trump’s Tariffs: Imposed July 9, 2025, at 30% on Iraqi non-oil imports (exempting crude oil, 98% of exports); reduced from initial 39% threat, but risks reserve drains if oil prices fall 5-10%. No “end” occurred user reference may misalign with imposition date.
ISO 20022: Migration for cross-border payments on track, with Swift coexistence ending November 2025; Fedwire adoption confirmed for July 14, 2025.
Fedwire: Single-day ISO 20022 implementation July 14, 2025; ends legacy formats, enabling blockchain pilots for 20% of oil settlements.
GENIUS Act (Senate): Passed Senate June 17, 2025 (68-30 vote); establishes stablecoin framework, now pending House reconciliation.
CLARITY Act (House): Advanced from committees June 2025; slated for House floor week of July 14 during “Crypto Week”; divides SEC/CFTC oversight for digital assets.
Iraq WTO 4th Meeting: Third Working Party meeting July 18, 2024; fourth delayed to Q1 2026 due to reform gaps; accession hinges on tariff bindings and anti-c--------n measures.
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Ripple/SEC Ends: Ripple dropped cross-appeal June 27, 2025; SEC closed meeting July 10 could finalize; $125M penalty dispute ongoing, no confirmed July closure.
Peace in Middle East: Gaza armistice January 2025; Hezbollah-Israel truce November 2024; ongoing tensions with Israeli forces in Lebanon hills; no comprehensive July breakthrough.
US Dollar Tanks / Currencies Rise: Dollar down 10% H1 2025 (worst since 1991) from debt ($35T+), tariffs, and rate cut expectations; EUR/USD at 1.17, GBP/USD at 1.37 by Q3.
Hypothetical Impact if All Events Align:
Combined pressures tariff exemptions preserving oil revenues, ISO 20022 enabling digital settlements, crypto bills boosting USD alternatives, dollar weakness lifting emerging currencies, and WTO progress could force CBI to advance a managed float to Q3 2025 for reserve bolstering; blockchain tests cover 20% transactions, positioning for subtle tweak.
Source(s):
https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/1943723602785775678
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