Ariel
@Prolotario1
To Further Emphasize
The HCL is not an obstacle to revaluation, no such link. In fact, a major Iraqi oil deal signed with BP in September 2025 is based on a revenue-sharing model that does not require the HCL, showing that oil export agreements can proceed without it. This info is publicly available.
Reports came out yesterday stating officially that BP will contribute between $20 billion and $25 billion under a profit-sharing arrangement that would last more than 25 years.
So we need to understand everything is not a straight line. Iraq is making very flexible maneuvers. And they are not held to this one thing that requires preliminary actions regarding a rate that is needed in order for them to do these massive oil deals that helps diversify their economy. Now there is one thing to consider.
Revaluing without the HCL risks KRG pushback, potentially disrupting 400,000 barrels/day of northern oil exports (10% of Iraq’s total). However, CBI’s $100+ billion reserves and intervention capacity (demonstrated in 2023’s 1,460-to-1,320 IQD/USD adjustment) can absorb volatility, with capital controls limiting withdrawals to $5,000 initially.
So I think they have this covered. And we all can release ourselves from this assumption that the HCL needs to be passed as this mandatory action that is required for a rate change. This is simply up for preferred usage on Iraq’s part.
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Source(s):
https://x.com/Prolotario1/status/1963509502692430145
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