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$250 Oil & 11% Inflation, Worst Case in 2026 – Ed Dowd
By Greg Hunter On May 27, 2026
Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned at the beginning of April that the economy was already rolling over. He said “Private Credit Problems are Ending the Party.” Just 10 days ago, Black Rock and other firms with so-called private credit are locking up investors’ cash because of a wave of redemptions. Dowd predicted this, and the sagging economy is not going to be getting any better anytime soon. If you thought private credit was a drag on the economy, then the Iran war is going to be a boat anchor. Dowd says, “The longer this situation persists, the likelihood of oil drifting higher is going to happen. We have two scenarios, and one is oil peaks out at $125, and this gets resolved by May. Inflation would peak around 5%. . .. We are at the point now, if this does not get resolved soon, oil prices could continue to drift higher. . .. We have a second scenario where we get $200 to $250 a barrel oil, which was our worst-case scenario. If that happens, inflation will peak out at around 11% by our models. . ..”
Martin Armstrong said two weeks ago that gasoline prices could go to $9 a gallon. Dowd agrees with Armstrong and says you might get $10 a gallon gas in a worst-case scenario. Dowd adds, “I see oil going a lot higher, which will cause a tremendous amount of demand destruction and a recession that I think is coming anyway. It will be even deeper than we have forecasted. It will cause layoffs and economic growth to go into recessionary territory. The prices of commodities will collapse as deflation sets in. The solution to high commodity prices is high commodity prices because it creates demand destruction.”
So, what’s the Fed going to do? Dowd thinks, “The Fed could raise rates to combat the headline inflation. My best guess is they do nothing at the June FMOC meeting. They are certainly not going to cut until they see the economic growth slowing. . .. Depending on this war . . . the real part of this economy, housing, is not doing well and rolling over. We are just waiting on the AI bubble to finally burst . . . we are close to that topping out soon.”
Dowd is still bullish on gold and silver long term, but short term, it may get sold off to raise cash like Turkey just did. Silver will have stronger headwinds than gold given the deflation that is coming. Dowd does not see China’s economic woes getting any better. Dowd predicted China’s economic problems months ago, and Wall Street is just now catching up on the bad news. Dowd says, “China had 8% negative growth in the first quarter.”
Dowd goes into a deep dive on the severe economic problems facing China. Dowd points out big problems in housing and says it’s cheaper to rent a house than to own one. Dowd also predicts the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates in early 2027 because the deflation will be so severe.
In closing, Dowd says, “This is the normal credit cycle. The credit cycle is old and aging, and we are seeing the credit cycle get chinks in the armor with the private credit situation, which is effectively frozen. This was credit growth that happened in 2024 and 2025.”
There is much more in the 44-minute interview.
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Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd as he explains why we are seeing big trouble for the US economy. Dowd predicted this was coming in January with his report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.”
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