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Ross
@Ross_ptm
Iraq does not revalue the Dinar to escape crises of this severity BUT sink-or-swim is the only thing that historically forces Baghdad to move on structural files that have been stalled for years.
The solution that will provide a boomerang towards the revaluation of IQD.
1. Real expenditure rationalization and non-oil revenue expansion.
2. Acceleration of the long-delayed Oil & Gas Law / Hydrocarbon Law framework. This is the single biggest structural unlock for sustained higher oil revenue and FDI.
3. Banking-sector cleanup, better customs collection (ASYCUDA push), and tighter control over regional revenue transfers. Better customs collection and forcing the Region to transfer what it owes directly improves the federal cash position without new borrowing.
4. Possible formal borrowing authority that comes with conditions or oversight. The version that helps the longer-term case is borrowing that is explicitly tied to reform milestones, spending limits, transparency requirements, and parliamentary or external oversight.
5. Serious c********n cleanup and recovery of public/stolen funds. Recovering looted or mismanaged public money is pure liquidity that does not create new debt. It strengthens reserves, reduces the need for printing or emergency borrowing, and signals that the system is finally being cleaned.
6. Continued push on digital payments / reduced cash economy (cuts leakage and improves tax collection).
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7. Clear, enforced resolution of the Kurdistan oil and revenue-sharing mechanism so the federal budget is no longer constantly bleeding.
8. Full completion of the cabinet under al-Zaidi and a functioning government that can actually pass and implement the above (vote coming 8/15-20).
None of these items equals an automatic higher dinar rate.
Collectively they shrink the fiscal hemorrhage, raise the quality of revenue, reduce leakage, and make the revalued currency defensible.
All of this is achievable and Baghdad has no choice but to act swiftly.
Lightning-speed fire under Iraq’s a*s progress is and will continue to unfold.
How long can Iraq hold its breath under water?
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Source(s):
• https://x.com/Ross_ptm/status/2085407872738066717
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