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Prolotario
@Prolotario1
Iraq: The Current Operational Assessment (And Other News)
The Sequence Problem, the September Squeeze, and Why the Clarity Act Is the Real Timer
Let me tell you what nobody’s connecting, because everyone’s staring at the budget like it’s the fuse when it’s actually the firecracker that gets thrown ‘after’ the match is lit.
A redenomination budget drafted in old currency that takes six weeks to ratify is worthless paper. You cannot write a 2027 budget in dinars that will cease to exist as a denomination by the time parliament votes on it. Every line item, every salary figure, every oil revenue projection would need a conversion factor bolted onto it.
Finance ministries do not operate that way when they know a redenomination is inbound they draft in the ‘new’ unit. Which means the rate decision is already made. It’s sitting in a drawer in the Central Bank like a loaded weapon, and the budget is just the paperwork that gets stamped after the s**t is fired.
Nizar Nasser Hussein gave us the confirmation in plain sight: “Currency change is under the Central Bank’s authority, deleting zeros requires legislation in the House of Representatives.” Read that sentence like a lawyer. He’s telling you both doors exist the parliamentary door and the emergency authority door.
Al-Zaidi doesn’t want to walk through parliament. He watched Maliki’s bloc weaponize every budget for a decade. An emergency monetary decree under CBI authority during a sovereignty transition window bypasses the entire circus. Hussein mentioned that clause on purpose. That was the signal, not the Oliver Wyman reform boilerplate wrapped around it.
THE SEPTEMBER 30 SQUEEZE — HERE’S THE MECHANISM NOBODY’S NAMING
Full sovereignty before September 30 means the US umbrella lifts. When that umbrella lifts, Iraq’s currency needs its own spine and the spine is the peg. You cannot be a sovereign state with a non-convertible, non-internationally-traded currency. That’s not a preference, that’s a prerequisite.
Article VIII compliance isn’t some IMF badge of honor, it’s the difference between IQD being money and IQD being a coupon. But this is only if Ali al-Zaidi sticks to his guns that this will follow through as we expect.
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Read Full Article:
https://www.patreon.com/Prolotario1/posts/iraq-current-and-168895770
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