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GP Q
@argosaki
INDIA RESET WATCH:
RBI meets with oil and the rupee in the room
5 October 2026
The Reserve Bank of India’s rate committee is in session through Wednesday.
A Moneycontrol poll of 19 economists and treasury heads has a majority looking for a 25-basis-point rise, from 5.25% to 5.50%.
That would be the first hike since February 2023.
An Economic Times poll was even firmer:
20 of 21 expected the same move. It is a forecast, not a decision.
The announcement is due on 7 October.
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The pressure is the import bill.
The rupee crossed 96 per dollar this week.
Brent jumped more than 1.5% overnight to about $107 in one market report, well above the $100 line, on West Asia supply fears.
Higher oil widens the current-account gap, lifts inflation risk and pulls capital toward markets where yields have already risen.
Retail inflation was 4.82% in August, inside the 2–6% band but above the 4% target.
A rate move, if it comes, is an attempt to steady the rupee and cap imported inflation.
It is not a revaluation of the rupee, and it does not set any other currency.
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Proof: Moneycontrol poll, 5 Oct — https://moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/mpc-poll-rbi-likely-to-hike-repo-rate-25-bps-as-crude-global-yields-fuel-inflation-risks-14044283.html
Economic Times poll — https://m.economictimes.com/et-front/rbi-likely-to-hike-rates-by-25-bps/articleshow/134680572.cms
Source(s):
• https://x.com/argosaki/status/2107316145476993345
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