“Another Lynch Pin” – Tues. AM TNT News/Thoughts 2-15-22

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Tishwash:
Did Al-Kazemi Succeed In Convincing Al-Sadr To End The Freezing Of Political Negotiations?

The representative of the State of Law coalition, Aref Al-Hamami, suggested, on Tuesday, that the meeting that brought together the caretaker prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, and the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada Al-Sadr, discussed persuading Al-Sadr to return to understandings and dialogues with political forces.

Al-Hamami said in a statement to / the information /, that “the meeting that brought together the leader of the Sadrist movement with the caretaker prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, who did not announce the content of the meeting, but according to the data of the political blockage that the political process is going through, we can expect that Al-Kazemi has requested From Al-Sadr to return to dialogues and understandings with the political forces regarding the formation of the government.”

He added, “The meeting also indicates to us that Al-Kazemi wanted to reassure Al-Sadr’s continued support for heading the next government,” stressing that “the next few days will witness clarity of the political situation and a change in positions and alliances, especially since there is a meeting and contacts taking place between the political forces in an unannounced manner.”

The leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, met yesterday evening, Monday, the caretaker prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, at his residence in Al-Hanana in Najaf.  link

Yada:
Sadr can’t be seen as taking orders from Kazemi regarding the PM seat. Sadr gave a general response but we all know the expected end. Especially since the Sovereignty and Democratic Alliance are in agreement.

CharlieOK:
yada: I believe this year and the time we are in right now is the most important since I have been involved with this. We are at a time of relative peace in Iraq. We are at a time when if the different sects and divisions of Iraq are ever going to agree for the common good…….. it is now.  I believe this year will be a make or break year for Iraq’s alleged position as a lynch pin for the gcr. They better get it right. Of course, this is all subject to the trump card that the ptb are in charge of the final trigger pull.

Ulued:
Every one who has purchased so much dinar on this lynch pin cannot afford another lynch pin……so we wait…

Tishwash:
Al-Fath: The Rise In Oil Prices Negatively Affected The Iraqi Citizen

On Monday, Fadel Jaber, a member of the Al-Fateh Alliance, held the Al-Kazemi government responsible for the aggravation of the economic crisis, stressing that the government was unable to find solutions that satisfy the aspirations of the Iraqi street.

Jaber told the “Information” agency, “The Iraqi people did not notice any solutions on the ground from the outgoing government of Mustafa Al-Kazemi in the economic aspect,” noting that “the increase in oil prices and the price of a barrel reaching more than 95 dollars did not reflect positively on the economic situation or agricultural or industrial in the country.

He added, “The rise in oil prices negatively affected the aggravation of the economic crisis, the increase in the poverty line and the increase in food prices due to the rise in the price of the dollar,” expressing his surprise at “the lack of special sessions by the Iraqi parliament to discuss the economic situation in the country.”  link

The recovery of the oil market provides the central bank reserves with 15 billion dollars

The recovery in oil prices contributed to increasing the reserves of the Central Bank by about 15 billion dollars, with a clear increase in monthly revenues by two billion dollars per month compared to last year, but observers confirm that Iraq does not have a vision in dealing with these variables to ensure economic stability and address many problems, most notably poverty. Unemployment and achieving the demands of establishing a sovereign fund for future generations, similar to other countries.

The current government had developed an action plan, which it described as the white paper, aimed at improving the economic reality and addressing the financial crisis that the country witnessed in conjunction with the drop in oil prices as a result of the Corona pandemic.

“The current international tensions have led to a clear rise in oil prices since the end of last week, and it is possible that this rise will continue in the coming days,” said economist, Basem Jamil Antoun.

And Anton added, “Iraq should deal with the current crises in the correct manner and exploit them economically for its own benefit, in a way that contributes to moving the wheel of production.”

He pointed out, “The Iraqi experiences with the rise in oil prices have proven that he does not have a strategic vision on how to benefit from this increase.”

And Antoun stated, “The rise comes in conjunction with the completion of the Kuwaiti debt payment, and therefore it is assumed that the amounts that were paid to Kuwait, amounting between 3 to 4 billion dollars annually, go to reconstruction and construction, or the establishment of a sovereign fund for children, sustainable development, unemployment and addressing the poverty file.” .

He noted that “the current indicators do not give the impression that there is a real mechanism to deal with these developments, at a time when the waste of public money should be stopped and a long-term economic mechanism should be implemented, and budget deficits should be ended.”

And he indicated, “The official authorities should give the opportunity to experts and economists to learn how to benefit from the money and not to repeat the experience of the rise that occurred in 2010 when the price of a barrel reached 147 dollars, but we did not benefit from it.”

He stressed, “The draft budget set a barrel price by $55, which is less than the current price by about $30,” calling for “reconsideration of it, but not by an exaggeration, and it is possible to put it at about $65 to bridge the deficit.”

And Anton added, “The mechanism of economic work is supposed to include an alternative action plan, in the event of any decline in oil prices, and we resort to alternative plans by relying on reserves.”

Some expectations indicate that the House of Representatives will not be able to approve the federal budget during the current year, due to the delay in forming the government and the law’s need for discussions between the executive and legislative authorities and for its texts to come in line with the ministerial curriculum, and this of course may require time while starting to prepare the budget for the year The next one is supposed to be in the month of July.

For his part, the other economic expert, Safwan Qusai, stated, “The apparent recovery in oil prices clearly led to a rise in the Central Bank’s reserves by no less than $15 billion, and dealing with the payment of Kuwait’s debts, as we reached their zero.”

Qusay continued, “The surplus that was achieved during the past period may reach $20 billion, and today we are in a better economic situation after getting rid of Kuwait’s debts and the clear rise in oil revenues after they reached about $9 billion per month.”

He pointed out that “sales of oil during the past year were about 7 billion dollars or less, and therefore the total increase in the current year amounted to about two billion dollars.”

Qusay concluded, “Iraq needs to enhance spending on the investment side in light of the financial stability it is experiencing, by taking advantage of Federal Financial Management Law No. (6) of 2019, which authorizes the caretaker government to finance investment projects previously approved by the House of Representatives. Therefore, today we need to accelerate this financing from the surplus.”

Informed sources indicate that “the reserves of the Central Bank have reached at the present time to 65 billion dollars, after it was 51.9 billion dollars before the current government started its reform measures, while in 2014 it was about 40 billion dollars.”

It is noteworthy that the Presidency of the House of Representatives decided to address the government in order to expedite the sending of the federal budget bill for the current year, but specialists in legal affairs confirmed that this could not be achieved because the government that handles daily tasks does not have the right to present draft laws.    link

Source: Dinar Recaps

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