Silver Report Uncut
Feb 18, 2022
According to Goldman Sachs commodities research chief, Jeffrey Currie, strengthens his thesis that the case for commodities has rarely been stronger.
While many commodities are fundamentally exposed to events, believes oil and gold provide the cleanest hedges for this global risk.
Currie notes that it is clear that as tension in the region increases, gold is acting as the currency of last resort. As we noted before gold tends to respond to those geopolitical risks which can directly affect the US. We think that the ongoing energy crisis and above target US inflation means that any disruption to commodity flows can lead to greater concern of US inflation overshoot and subsequent hard landing.
A common concern for gold in 2022 is looming Fed hikes and the potential for higher long term real rates.
However, we find that historically, gold tends to increase during rate hike periods when gold’s negative correlation with long term real rates also tends to break down. This is already happening with gold displaying resilience to the most recent increase in US 10 year real rates. In our previous research, we argued that this has to do with the fact that the rate hikes themselves can lead to fears of a growth slowdown and recession and therefore boost demand for safe haven assets, such as gold. This means if inflation fails to slow down in the second half of 2022 and the Fed is forced to hike more than currently expected, gold should be resilient as this would increase fears of a potential recession.
Gold is beginning to disconnect from real rates.
First, there is clear upside skew in oil prices on both a tactical and strategic basis, with any geopolitical risk premia comin.
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