“Ready to Interlink” – Fri. PM KTFA Thoughts, News w/ Tivon 8-12-22

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Samson » August 12th, 2022

Iraq’s budget… a tossing ball and scattered accounts

08/12/2022 12:26:01

A government without a financial budget has become not a strange thing in the Iraqi state in recent years, despite the severe economic and development damage to the country as a result.

The budget specifies the items of state expenditures during a year, especially for salaries, subsidies, and the payment of debt burdens, as well as the target of state revenues.

Despite the government’s success in obtaining about $ 18 billion within the Emergency Security Law for Food Security and Development approved by Parliament on June 8 to secure energy imports, finance important service projects, and fund the Social Welfare Fund, officials confirm the country’s continued need for the draft budget. Earlier, at nearly $90 billion.

Above all, the final accounts of the previous budgets have not been resolved, although they must be submitted after the end of each fiscal year and before the approval of the new budget.

In this regard, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Mazhar Muhammad Salih, clarifies about the presentation of the final accounts of the current government, indicating that there are two main factors that have contributed to the failure to approve the final accounts on a regular basis 10 years ago. 

Saleh said on June 30 that “the current government’s presentation of the final accounts requires the submission of final accounts extending from the year 2015-2020, taking into account that the year 2020 there is no general budget, which requires the submission of a draft law called the current budget, which is a legal expression of a final account and budget in At the same time, the revenues and expenditures are now realized.

Saleh said that “the oversight task of the House of Representatives in this regard will be a little arduous in following up the completion of the country’s final accounts for the years 2013-2021, but it will certainly be fruitful after passing the final account for the fiscal year 2013 and enacting a budget law for the current situation for the year 2014 so that the government can refer the rest of the government accounts sequentially only previous years”.

And the Federal Supreme Court – its decisions are binding on all authorities – stripped Al-Kazemi’s government of all powers, as it is a caretaker government with limited powers, and it is not entitled to propose important bills with the invalidation of all appointment orders of higher grades issued during the period of the conduct of business.

In his speech at the cabinet meeting yesterday, Al-Kazemi held the political situation responsible for the delay in the budget, and said: “We are now in the eighth month of 2022, and there is no budget, and the imbalance is not in the government, but because of the existing political situation, so how do we build schools, pave roads and build projects with Absence of political consensus on forming a government or finding a solution to the political impasse.

He promised, “The issue of the budget is a very serious matter, and we have good financial abundance and we need to invest it in rebuilding infrastructure and achieving the demands of our people.”

With regard to the federal budget for the fiscal year 2023, the financial advisor to the Prime Minister, Haitham al-Jubouri, ruled out its approval, saying to Al-Furat on July 25: “It can only be approved by the presence of a new government and not necessarily adopting the same approach as the current government, it may take austerity for the sake of the article; but if the government remains we will proceed with laying down the doors of the law.” 

MP Ahmed Hama Rashid agrees with Al-Jubouri regarding the impossibility of approving the budget, saying, “The current government is unable to approve the country’s budget for this year, because it does not have the powers to legislate laws as approved by the Federal Court,” describing Al-Kazemi’s talk about the necessity of approving the budget.

“Scattered ashes in the eyes, nothing more.” While the economic expert, Ali Al-Fraiji, considered that the political crisis over the formation of the next government has plunged Iraq into “a new chaos over how to invest the state’s revenues and capabilities.” Al- Fraiji pointed out that “it is difficult to approve the budget for this year in light of the political turmoil that Iraq is witnessing,” noting that Iraq is entering economic chaos today, adding to the negative accumulations of previous years.

State matters, including the salaries of employees and retirees, stated that a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Jamal Cougar, said: “Compensation for the affected economic sectors needs a financial cover, and we have two legal covers to provide the allocated amounts. ”Presenting alternative laws by the government if they are in full force.

He added, “As for the presence of a caretaker government, they should cooperate with each other to present financial laws as a proposed law from Parliament,” stressing “the need for coordination between the government and parliament to cover and expand any sector that institutions need.”

And the economists’ warnings escalated that the country would remain without a financial budget, and not address the effects of that, especially since its approval needs a few more months, in the event that the political crisis in Iraq is overcome.

Here, the expert in economic affairs, Abdul Hassan Al-Shammari, says that “this delay will hit the investment sector, and will contribute to the spread of unemployment among young people, and will even raise poverty indicators to higher levels.” Al-Shammari believes that “addressing the effects of this will be difficult, and not as easy as some officials are talking about, so the political blocs should be aware of the danger of the current stage, and avoid taking risks.”

Financial budgets represent the main tool for achieving the state’s general policies, whether economic, social, or service, and serve as a presentation of the government’s annual plans and programs, which it prepares in response to current challenges.

Budgets give governments the best planning to achieve the maximum revenue, and to reorganize their distribution according to spending priorities in order to serve the community. Most importantly, the budget is a tool that reflects the power and symbolism of the state through spending spending on all departments and institutions according to spending plans that are developed in a manner consistent with Citizen priorities, which means economic aspects will be disrupted if they are not approved.

BlaqueBeauty » August 12th, 2022

“From trillions to billions”    

Tivon » August 12th, 2022

If it’s 18 billion sitting there. They are waiting for one thing to actualize those funds. They can’t even present a general budget until they have the final accounts.

Which means the EFSL will have to come into play given that no funding for departments, projects, or investments can be made available until the CBI reinstate the IQD. Remember I kept saying the surplus in oil, or the gold reserve and hard currency can currently support a rate change.

Now you know from this article it has to be done prior and not after a budget is open.

What solution they have at the moment? Dissolution & Interim Gov. This is How I personally see it. Because it requires a defacto government in the least. Which Al-Kazemi will present as an interim (Emergency GOI) because they can’t form a GOI until elections are done anyway.

So you can sense the urgency. Thank you all for the support. IMO

Wagmister » August 12th, 2022

August 15 is looming.  

Tivon » August 12th, 2022

Right. All banks by or on that date will be ready to interlink digitally through BUNA Which is why I think the workshop is being done. Post 56. The reinstatement can be made efficiently and instantly. Especially when you read an article last month with Iran ready to go. I’m excited about the 15th and every hour after that day. Al-Sadr knows something as I’m sure Mustafa, Kazemi, and Sadr all know the playbook. What else could he reward them with after dissolution? Imo

Samson » August 12th, 2022

“Al-Firdaws” demonstrators announce their final statement and stress the need to dissolve the “incompetent” parliament and hold early elections

12th August, 2022

Civilian demonstrators in Al-Firdaws Square in central Baghdad stressed, on Friday, the necessity of dissolving the House of Representatives, which they described as “incapable”, and holding early elections on its terms and conditions.

This came in a final statement signed by 10 parties (the Iraqi Communist Party, the Social Democratic Current Party, the Iraqi Nation Party, the National Civil Movement, the Nazl Movement to Take My Right to Democracy, the Faili Front, the Iraqi House Movement, the Democratic Current, the Consultative Council of Tishreen Movements, the National Forces and the Tishreen Democratic Movement).

The statement, which was received by Shafak News Agency, stated, “For more than a decade, the people and their civil and national forces have been emphasizing that this entire system is in dire need of real reforms, but none of the power parties and its politicians responded. The sectarian and racist laws and alignment will lead to the collapse of the country at the general levels and will generate exacerbated conflicts between the political forces, which in turn will negatively affect the life of the citizen. All the dominant forces in power bear the responsibility for what happened.”

He added, “Today, in the face of a deep crisis in the quota system and corruption, represented by the state of political impossibility, we affirm that change has become a national necessity, from which there is no retreat… and that not responding to the people’s call for change, the political cost will be exorbitant for those who reject it, and for to achieve change in response to the aspirations of our people for a dignified, independent and prosperous life, and to preserve civil peace, must be based on the principles of peace, democracy and citizenship..and consecrate the unifying national identity, and preserve rights..freedoms..and achieve social justice.

The statement clarified that “the civil and democratic forces, as they continue their peaceful struggle, believe that the will of the people is the decisive factor in the conflict, which we will not engage in except from a national standpoint keen on the future of Iraqis… a struggle for salvation from quotas and its failed forces… a struggle against the killers of the demonstrators..a struggle against the corrupt, regardless of their affiliation..a struggle for the confinement of arms in the hands of the state..a struggle for the state of citizenship, rights, and just law.

The statement continued, “We reiterate once again the necessity of dissolving the impotent Parliament, and holding free and fair elections within one year, on its terms and conditions (a fair electoral law, an independent commission, the application of the parties’ law) … elections that reflect the true representation of the will of Iraqis. Any return to the failed approach to governance.. the Iraqis who have been engulfed in the fire of crises.. have the final say and it is up to them to decide.

Dozens of civil parties and currents demonstrated earlier on Friday, in the center of the capital, Baghdad, to demand the dissolution of the Iraqi parliament. The demonstrators raised banners calling for the dissolution of Parliament and the end of quotas.

This comes in conjunction with demonstrations by the Sadrist movement in the Green Zone and the rest of the Iraqi provinces, as well as demonstrations by the coordination framework at the Green Zone gate from the side of the suspension bridge and the governorates of Basra and Nineveh.  LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps


Samson » August 12th, 2022

Creating a legal corridor for blockchain development in Việt Nam

8th August, 2022

In the face of the explosive wave of global technology, with increasingly favourable policies and rising interest of businesses, the Vietnamese blockchain market is forecast to continue to develop positively.

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly in collaboration with the Việt Nam Blockchain Association held a seminar on international experience in blockchain technology development and recommendations for Việt Nam last week.

The conference aims to learn and enhance experience, standardise solutions for the development and application of blockchain technology, towards perfecting the legal system, and building institutions and policies to create a legal corridor for technology-related activities.

Phan Đức Trung, permanent vice president of Việt Nam Blockchain Association, said: “Blockchain technology is a kind of database, information is stored in blocks and linked together.”

Blockchain could be likened to a ledger that records all data in the system. Blockchain differs from conventional data in the data storage structure. Blockchain collects data information and groups them into blocks containing a lot of information. Blockchain is being applied in 65 fields such as banking, securities and funds, insurance, state management, and infrastructure.

In the opening speech of the seminar, deputy chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly Nguyễn Mạnh Tiến emphasised that blockchain technology was increasingly attracting the attention of socio-economic and political sectors around the world as this technology had revolutionised traditional commerce due to the ledger feature. “Every record in this ledger is secured by cryptographic rules that keep the information safe and not able to be faked,” he added.

The application of blockchain technology created many benefits in increasing the efficiency of work processes, storing data, managing the supply of goods, reducing errors in the document flow and duration, and reducing logistics time, said Tiến. The deputy chairman also noted that the blockchain “big playground” needed direction and guidance.

With the goal that Việt Nam will not be “left behind” in the technological development of many countries, the Document of the 13th Party Congress for the first time emphasised digital transformation and digital economic development, which emphasises the need to “develop the digital economy on the basis of science and technology and innovation”.

The document, at the same time, set requirements for growth innovation, economic restructuring, and making good use of opportunities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, towards the goal “the digital economy will contribute about 20 per cent of GDP by 2025, about 30 per cent of GDP by 2030”.

In order to carry out the above task, Tién said that in addition to the efforts of the Government and related agencies and organisations, it was necessary to have companionship and experience sharing from countries in the digitisation process as well as businesses in building and perfecting a system of legal documents related to this field, and monitor for the Government’s implementation of the budget and international commitments, resolutions, documents and other legislation of the National Assembly on policies to develop the digital economy. LINK

Việt Nam’s economic growth forecast at 7.5 per cent in 2022: World Bank

8th August, 2022

Việt Nam’s GDP growth is forecast to surge from an estimated 2.6 per cent in 2021 to 7.5 per cent in 2022, with resilient manufacturing and a robust rebound in services serving as the driving forces for economic recovery. 

According to the latest economic update by World Bank (WB) for Việt Nam, the country’s economy expanded 5.2 per cent in Q4 of 2021, and respectively 5.1 per cent and 7.7 per cent in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. 

Inflation is projected to average 3.8 per cent over the year. 

Carolyn Turk, WB Country Director for Việt Nam, said that the bi-annual report “lays out a set of policy recommendations that could help mitigate the impact of these risks and make the economy more resilient going forward.”

Titled “Taking Stock: Educate to Grow”, this edition underlines transforming the higher education system as the key to boosting the country’s productivity and achieving its development goals, in the context where the country re-emerges from the pandemic and into a challenging global environment.

The report’s co-author Dorsati Madani said that while Việt Nam’s economic recovery had been relatively stable, not all sectors witnessed the same situation. 

The impact on workers and households during the crisis was serious and lasting, with about 45 per cent claiming lower incomes in December 2021 than the previous year. The impact of the pandemic is still present with businesses reporting broad-based labour shortages as of March 2022, which were felt more acutely in services and manufacturing, and in the HCM City area.

This, in addition to growth slowdown or stagflation in main export markets, further commodity price shocks, continued disruption of global supply chains, or the emergence of new COVID-19 variants, are hindering Việt Nam’s full recovery. 

Statistics revealed that Việt Nam’s population has an average 10.2 years of schooling, second only to Singapore among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries.

Việt Nam’s human capital index is 0.69 out of a maximum of 1, the highest among lower middle-income economies. However, low skills relevance of the university graduates put the country in the bottom third of the 140 countries listed in the 2018 Competitiveness Index on skills relevance of university graduates. 

A World Bank skills and enterprise survey published in 2019 also said that 73 per cent of sampled Vietnamese firms report difficulties in recruiting employees with leadership and managerial skills, 54 per cent with socio-emotional skills, and 68 per cent with job-specific technical skills.

Focusing on tertiary and higher education, the WB’s report recommends reforming the education system to improve quality and access, and thus provide the necessary skills to the population. Reforms to Việt Nam’s higher education system could help support development objectives, the report says

The increasing financial costs of pursuing higher education and the perception of diminishing economic returns from pursuing higher education have weakened demand.  While efforts to enhance the business environment are crucial to enabling job creation, policymakers should also take steps to reduce skill-mismatches and improve the quality of Việt Nam’s labour force. 

Turk said: “To sustain economic growth at the desired rate, Việt Nam needs to increase productivity by 2-3 per cent every year. “International experiences have shown that higher worker productivity can be achieved by investing in the education system, as an important part of a basket of investments and reforms. A competitive workforce will generate much-needed efficiency for Việt Nam in the long term.” 

LINK

Vietnam : Stock market to benefit from unexpectedly strong domestic growth: VinaCapital

8th August, 2022

“Việt Nam’s economy is even stronger than we had expected at the beginning of the year, but that strength is not reflected by higher stock prices due to the [US’s] aggressive rate hikes and the recent regulatory crackdown in Việt Nam,” Michael Kokalari, chief economist at VinaCapital, has said in a report. 

“That said, we expect over 20 per cent [company earnings] growth in 2022, which should support a recovery in the VN-Index by the end of 2022.”

July economic statistics have not only reinforced VinaCapital’s forecast of 7.5 per cent GDP growth in 2022 but also make it look like the economy would grow by a stunning 10 per cent year-on-year in the current quarter, he said.  “Our expectation that Việt Nam’s economy will grow by at least 7.5 per cent this year (and by at least 10 per cent in Q3) leads us to believe that the consensus forecast for 16 per cent [company] earnings growth this year in Việt Nam is too conservative. 

“We expect earnings growth to exceed 20 per cent this year, supported by Việt Nam’s solid economic performance – in stark contrast to the US stock market, where earnings growth expectations look unrealistically high, especially given that country’s deteriorating economic outlook.” 

Việt Nam’s retail sales have accelerated all year, illustrating that consumption is currently the main growth driver, he said.  In the first half of the year retail sales adjusted for inflation grew by 7.9 per cent, and surged to 11.9 per cent in the first seven months, far above the 7 per cent growth his company had previously forecast, he said. “This is important because we are often asked now whether the ongoing slowdown in the US economy, Việt Nam’s biggest export market, will weigh on Việt Nam’s economic growth.”

A slowing US economy is likely to temper Việt Nam’s export growth and economic growth, but that would be more than offset by Việt Nam’s strong domestic economy, he said. “The revenues and earnings of companies listed on Việt Nam’s stock market are primarily driven by the domestic economy, which is why we would have expected the stock market to benefit from the unexpectedly strong domestic growth.”

The stock market rose 37 per cent in 2021, driven by a 36 per cent rise in earnings. “All of this makes it somewhat surprising that the VN-Index is currently down 17 per cent year-to-date.”

The main reason for the recent dour sentiment among retail investors is the Government’s regulatory crackdown on illegal practices by certain companies that started at the end of March, he said. “But we believe the Government’s efforts to improve corporate governance and transparency in Việt Nam will ultimately benefit the stock market and the country as a whole.”

The issue has had less impact on the stock market in recent weeks, and Việt Nam already has the highest transparency and political stability ranking in Southeast Asia, according to a report from the Political & Economic Risk Consultancy, he said.

Coming Bounce in the VN-Index

VinaCapital expects another leg down in the US stock market, which could in turn drag Việt Nam’s stock market lower. 

Kokalari said: “However, at some point we expect the Fed to ‘pivot’ away from its aggressive rate hike plans. Việt Nam’s stock market should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of a Fed pivot because Việt Nam has the most attractive valuation in the region, and the second highest expected earnings growth next to Indonesia.

“Furthermore, the quality/visibility of Việt Nam’s corporate earnings is currently much better than that of Indonesia and other regional peers.” He also expects bank share prices to outperform in the second half of the year, as it becomes apparent that banks’ post-COVID asset quality issues are much less severe than many investors had feared, especially in light of Việt Nam’s very high GDP growth in 2022.   LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps

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