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Ariel
@Prolotario1
US Military Leaves Iraq: 23 Years Of Occupation Now Over (What This Means For IQD Holders)
Can you all feel the electricity in what is being laid out? It’s like watching puzzle pieces snap together after years of waiting in the shadows. Iraq’s been grinding through reforms for ages, and with the US pullout from federal territory hitting the wires just yesterday (January 18, 2026), the timing feels charged.
Trump’s old 2020 line about not leaving until Iraq “pays us back” for those billion-dollar bases is echoing louder now, especially as Baghdad navigates how to settle accounts in a world where the dinar sits at roughly 1,310 to the dollar. You’re spot on that a massive reval would be the cleanest “repayment” mechanism on paper, but let’s dig deep into the why and how of this moment, especially your sharp question: why route so much through Erbil over Baghdad?
I’ll try to explain with layers of context, pulling from the real dynamics at play, because this isn’t just surface noise it’s structural.
Iraq’s pushing h*****n multiple fronts right now, and it does feel anticipatory, like the country is finally clearing the runway for deeper global integration:
Sovereign rating push → Confirmed. That joint meeting with Oliver Wyman, chaired by CBI Governor Ali Mohsen Al-Alaq and attended by PM advisor Mazhar Mohammed Saleh, zeroed in on the five pillars (institutional strength, monetary policy, economic growth prospects, political risks, governance). This isn’t cosmetic they’re building a narrative for S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s to justify upgrades. Better ratings mean cheaper borrowing, more FDI, and smoother access to international markets.
Banking cleanup and OFAC coordination → Real and ongoing. The CBI has been isolating bad actors, tightening dollar auction rules, and aligning with US Treasury to choke illicit flows (think Iran smuggling networks). This creates “clean pipes” for legitimate capital.
WTO track → Accelerating. After resuming talks in 2024 following a 16-year pause, Iraq’s adopting laws (commercial agency tweaks, IP protections) to meet accession criteria. Full membership isn’t tomorrow, but the momentum is there UNCTAD systems at ports like Umm Qasr are modernizing customs to tie into global trade rails.
US withdrawal context → Fresh and nuanced. Reports across CNN, Reuters, AP, and others confirm the full handover of bases like Ain al-Asad in federal Iraq. But notice the precise wording: “federal territory” or “non-Kurdish regions.” That’s deliberate. Remaining advisory/training elements are heavily concentrated in the Kurdistan Region, where US-KRG ties run deep and I**S remnants still justify a footprint.
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All this choreography clean banks, rating upgrades, trade prep does scream preparation for a more open economic regime. But the currency angle? The 2026 budget officially locks in ~1,300 IQD/USD, with no public signals of a dramatic shift. Which of course is very smart to keep the markets in line.
Read Full Article:
https://www.patreon.com/posts/us-military-iraq-148634263
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